2 - Political Survival,Mass Politics, and Sovereign Default

Summary

This chapter develops my theory of regime-contingent sovereign default by focusing on two strategies of mass politics:voting and revolt.I argue that partitioning citizens into urban versus rural agents aligns closely with traditional accounts of groups with advantages in these two strategies:specifically, urban citizens are generally considered to enjoy advantages for protest activity, whereas rural citizens have frequently been identified as crucial swing voters.After noting that these groups differ in their preferences for food price policy, I link the pressure from urban revolt to sovereign default in autocracies, particularly those that import a great deal of food.Conversely, rural electoral pressure often leads to large farm price supports which can be difficult to remove during fiscal crisis, suggesting that more rural democracies (especially those that export a great deal of costly food) should be more likely to default.The chapter concludes by also considering variation within regimes:electoral autocracies are argued to dilute the sole focus of autocrats on urban areas, whereas contentious democracies should lead to reduced emphasis on rural voters.