4 - THE RUSSIAN CONDITION IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Summary

The previous chapter established that Russia has failed to democratize; the current one begins to address why. It grapples with the problem by examining the determinants of political regime on a global scale. The major hypotheses found in the literature on democracy's determinants are considered. The simple logic of causal inference introduced in the first chapter obtains here and throughout the book. If the cross-national analysis shows that a given variable does not affect political regime in global perspective, that variable's status as a determinant of political regime in Russia will be placed in doubt. If additional investigation that focuses on Russia suggests that the variable probably has little impact in that country as well, the hypothesis that the variable is responsible for Russia's democratic deficit will be discarded. If a variable has causal force on a global scale, I assume that it might be important in Russia. If Russia is an outlier in the larger global picture, and is atypical in a manner that suggests that the variable is not important in Russia, the variable will not be considered an important determinant of political regime in Russia. If the variable is a good predictor of regime type and Russia is not an outlier, it will be considered a potentially important determinant of conditions in Russia. It will then be subjected to further scrutiny with specific attention to Russia.