16 - Bare-Chested Politics in Central Sulawesi: Local Elections in a Post-Conflict Region

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The 2005 pilkada (pilihan kepala daerah, or local head election) for the positions of bupati (regent) and wakil bupati (deputy regent) in the troubled Indonesian district of Poso were of vital importance for the future stability of the region and the reconciliation processes under way. Given the instrumental role of political and electoral mobilization as one of the features underpinning violence in the post-Soeharto period, there were many fears that the elections could see a return to violence. From a social scientific perspective, the elections were also important as they allow us a snapshot of the status and dynamics of the broad peace that has endured since 2001 despite many incidences of provocation. Using a two-level conceptualization of peace at the elite and the grassroots level, this paper examines how far the pilkada elections are indicative of a move towards a more “positive” peace at the elite and grass-roots level. Examining various formal and informal interventions in the campaigning for the election, we argue that at the elite level, a strong negative peace is in place to prevent a return to conflict, but with little positive engagement to address some of the underlying problems or construct a mutual vision for the future for all groups involved. At the grass-roots level, we argue that voting patterns suggest a similar lack of positive peace at this level and an even weaker form of negative peace.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Cross-country evidence has shown that democracies are less likely to experience civil war than authoritarian states (Hegre et al. 2001). While democracies may be more likely to channel conflict in peaceful ways, democratizing countries — those in transition, such as Indonesia — are more prone to conflict, and social tensions in these nations are more likely to escalate into violence (Gurr 2000; Gurr 2001; Snyder 2000). In addition, Tilly (2003) argues that regime types themselves will affect the character and nature of collective violence, which is evident in the discussion of the New Order regime below.