13 - The Rumsfeld Matrix

Summary

The Rumsfeld knowledge matrix – which spans the knowledge categories “known knowns,” “known unknowns,” and “unknown unknowns” – is used to illustrate the process of model improvement. Two new knowledge subcategories – “poorly known unknowns” and “well-known unknowns” – are introduced to distinguish between accuracy of parameterizations. A distinction is made between “downstream benefits” of parameterizations, which improve prediction skill, and “upstream benefits,” which improve understanding of the phenomenon being parameterized but not necessarily the prediction skill. Since new or improved parameterizations add to the complexity of models, it may be important to distinguish between essential and nonessential complexity. The fourth knowledge category in the Rumsfeld matrix is “unknown knowns” or willful ignorance, which can be used to describe contrarian views on climate change. Contrarians dismiss climate models for their limitations, but typically only offer alternatives born of unconstrained ideation.