7 - The Balkan Wars

Summary

By 1912 the diplomatic situation in the Balkans had changed considerably. Russia had regained much of the confidence it had lost in the debacle of the war with Japan. One of the effects of that war was a renewed Russian concentration on Europe, rather than the Far East. The 1897 Russian agreement with Austria on the status quo in the Balkans had foundered on the failure of the Russian–Austrian Macedonian reform agreement and the Austrian annexation of Bosnia. The greatest effect on Ottoman–British relations came from the British rapprochement with Russia. An Anglo-Russian Convention on Iran, Afghanistan and Tibet was signed on 31 August 1907. It ended Russian and British competition in Iran, dividing the country into ‘zones of interest’, and guaranteed Britain a protectorate in Afghanistan. The ‘Great Game’ in Asia was over.

Although it ostensibly only related to Iran, Afghanistan and Tibet, the implications of détente between Britain and Russia went beyond those regions. Although no formal defensive alliance between the two had been signed, the direction of British and Russian policy against the Germans was set. In its intentions, Britain had actually joined the existing alliance between France and Russia, the Triple Entente. For the Ottomans, both Britain and Russia had been, to varying degrees, against Ottoman interests. While Britain and Russia had often been at odds in Macedonia and elsewhere, they could now be expected to take concerted action in the Ottoman Empire. The convention was a signal to the Ottomans of what could be expected from the British and Russians in the future. Iran had been divided without the consent of the Iranians. The Iranians were only notified of the agreement to take over their country a month after the Russians and British had signed the agreement to do so. It was doubtful if the Ottoman Empire would be treated differently, unless politics among the Powers somehow intervened to protect them.

Until the Austrian takeover of Bosnia and her loss to Japan, Russia had often played a somewhat moderating role in the Balkans and Anatolia. Russian interest had been to avoid conflict in the Balkans – conflict that might have led to war with Austria and perhaps Germany – a war Russia could not win.