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13 - Data Assimilation for Real-Time Shake-Mapping and Prediction of Ground Shaking in Earthquake Early Warning

from Part III - ‘Solid’ Earth Applications: From the Surface to the Core

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2023

By
Mitsuyuki Hoshiba
Edited by
Alik Ismail-Zadeh ,
Fabio Castelli ,
Dylan Jones  and
Sabrina Sanchez
Alik Ismail-Zadeh
Affiliation:
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Fabio Castelli
Affiliation:
Università degli Studi, Florence
Dylan Jones
Affiliation:
University of Toronto
Sabrina Sanchez
Affiliation:
Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany
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Summary

Abstract: Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to provide advance warning of impending strong ground shaking, in which earthquake ground shaking is predicted in real-time or near real-time. Many EEW systems are based on a strategy which first quickly determines the earthquake hypocentre and magnitude, and then predicts the strength of ground shaking at various locations using the hypocentre distance and magnitude. Recently, however, a new strategy was proposed in which the current seismic wavefield is rapidly estimated by using data assimilation, and then the future wavefield is predicted on the basis of the physics of wave propagation. This technique for real-time prediction of ground shaking in EEW does not necessarily require the earthquake hypocentre and magnitude. In this paper, I review real-time shake-mapping and data assimilation for precise estimation of ongoing ground shaking, and prediction of future shaking in EEW.

Keywords

data assimilationearthquake early warningFDMground-motion prediction equationnumerical shake predictionsource-based methodradiative transfer theorywavefield-based method
Type
Chapter
Information
Applications of Data Assimilation and Inverse Problems in the Earth Sciences , pp. 209 - 219
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

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References

References

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Specific Terms

EEW: Earthquake early warning. Warning of strong shaking before its arrival.Google Scholar
GMPE: Ground-motion prediction equation. Strength of ground motion is empirically estimated from the equation, in which earthquake magnitude and distance (hypocentral distance, epicentral distance, or fault distance) are usually used.Google Scholar
JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency. A national governmental organization in Japan.Google Scholar
K-NET, KiK-net: Observation networks of strong ground motion operated by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED) in Japan.Google Scholar
RTT: Radiative transfer theory. A model of wave propagation based on ray theoretical approach, in which scattering and attenuation are included.Google Scholar

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