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17 - Health Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

By
Anthony (tony) Cox Jr.
Edited by
Ward Edwards ,
Ralph F. Miles Jr.  and
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Anthony (tony) Cox Jr.
Affiliation:
Cox Associates and University of Colorado
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
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Summary

ABSTRACT. Health risk assessment offers a framework for applying scientific knowledge and data to improve “rational” (consequence-driven) risk-management decision making when the consequences of alternative decisions are uncertain. It does so by clarifying both: (a) The probable consequences of alternative decisions (usually represented by conditional probabilities of different consequences occurring, given specified current information and probabilistic risk models); and (b) How current uncertainties about probable consequences might change as more information is gathered. This chapter summarizes methods, principles, and high-level procedures for using scientific data (e.g., biological and epidemiological knowledge) (1) to assess and compare the probable human health consequences of different exposures to hazards (i.e., sources of risk); (2) to predict likely changes in exposures and risks caused by alternative risk-management interventions; and (3) to evaluate and choose among interventions based on their probable health consequences. The usual goal of these methods is to identify and select actions or interventions that will cause relatively desirable probability distributions of human health consequences in affected populations. We discuss the steps of hazard identification (including causal analysis of data), exposure assessment, causal dose-response modeling, and risk and uncertainty characterization for improving health risk-management decision making.

Public health risk analysis deals with decisions about which of a set of available risk-management interventions (usually including the status quo or “do-nothing” option) should be implemented. For example, should cell phone use in cars be banned? Under what conditions, if any, should cattle be imported from countries with low levels of diseases such as BSE?

Type
Chapter
Information
Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications
 , pp. 325 - 350
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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