Interest has grown in analyzing the impact of national imports of foreign beef on state agricultural sectors. In this study, an interfaced Hawaiian-national model is simulated for a change in national beef imports. Hawaiian and national impacts demonstrate wide variation in both sign and magnitude. Usefulness of state models is emphasized for situations where state impacts of national policies are of interest.

The U.S. pork sector is modeled to simulate the effects of alternative import levels on prices, production, consumption, farm receipts, and consumer expenditures. Over the 1983–1985 period, producers annually received $600 million less due to increasing imports than if imports had remained at the 1979–1982 average. Farm prices and slaughter were lower by $2.21 per hundredweight and 1.1 million head annually, respectively. Four simulations reflecting alternative import paths over the period 1986–1992 were examined. With lower imports (relative to current levels), production and farm prices rise significantly in the long run; consumers purchase less and pay more.

Evaluations of generic advertising programs by commodity check-off programs involve analyses of counterfactual scenarios in which advertising and promotion expenditures are set to zero over the program's history. In actual practice, the counterfactual is rarely realized. We present a case in which such a natural experiment occurred when generic advertising and promotion expenditures for U.S. orange juice were cut nearly to zero. Using structural econometric and autoregression models, we estimate losses in consumption and sales revenue and examine the time required for the market for orange juice to recover from the check-off's strategy of going nearly dark.

The U.S. poultry industry has spent considerable resources to date preparing for an outbreak of avian influenza in this country. This research quantifies the potential effects of two alternative avian influenza scenarios on the poultry industry. In addition, this research looks at effects on other agriculture sectors including the loss of feed demand from an outbreak and the impacts on aggregate measures like farm income and consumer food expenditures. The economic sector model maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is employed for these scenarios.