An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modeling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. The baseline model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. To test the sensitivity of the results, a number of robustness checks are performed. The findings contribute to efforts at modeling exchange rate regime credibility as a nonlinear process with two distinct regimes.

I use a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a nonzero steady-state inflation to study monetary policy in transition economies. In particular, my analysis focuses on whether inflation targeting is based on a consumer price index (CPI) or its producer counterpart, producer price index (PPI). This issue is specifically relevant for transition economies as they might be subject to Balassa–Samuelson effects arising from trading in international markets. Under these circumstances, domestic inflation is possibly higher than imported inflation, hence targeting PPI inflation may prove more effective in influencing domestic macroeconomic variables than targeting CPI inflation. Using a Bayesian methodology, I find that the central banks of three Eastern European countries (namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) are likely to target PPI inflation rather than CPI inflation. This result is in line with the theoretical predictions in the literature, and is robust across several Taylor-type rules.

This paper considers the political economy of financial development in an overlapping generations model that incorporates credit market imperfections, and shows that income inequality is a determinant of financial and economic development. Individuals have an opportunity to start an investment project at a fixed cost, but their income to finance the cost is unequal. The government proposes a policy financed by taxation that mitigates credit market imperfections, the implementation of which is determined through majority voting. The policy benefits middle-income individuals who can start the investment only after the implementation of the policy. The policy is, however, against the interest of the rich who wish to block such new entry, and that of the poor who wish to avoid the tax burden. Whether the policy obtains majority support depends on income inequality. High income inequality makes the policy hard to implement, which causes financial and economic underdevelopment.

In a recent book, Roger Farmer offers a quick but exhaustive rundown of the research agenda that he drove forward over the last 10 years with the aim to offer a novel microfoundation for Keynesian macroeconomics and—as a by-product—providing practical remedies to prevent financial crises, reduce unemployment, and ensure prosperity for all. In that work, the Farmerian arguments question the conventional visions underlying the Neo-Classical and New Keynesian paradigms and the addressed topics cover relevant theoretical, empirical, and policy issues that have been widely debated after the Great Recession of 2007–2009.

This paper examines the relationships of income with education and health using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to account for the potential cross-country heterogeneity in the effects of education and health. Our main results are: (i) education and health are, on average, income-enhancing; (ii) for different schooling levels, although primary education lowers income, both secondary and tertiary education raise income with larger impacts for the former than the latter, on average; (iii) there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of education and health on income across countries; and (iv) the effect of education (health) on income tends to be greater (smaller) in countries with higher levels of development, greater (less) trade openness, less abundant natural resources, less corruption, higher levels of democracy, and a more homogeneous society.

This paper analyzes the dynamical properties of monetary models with regime switching. We start with the analysis of the evolution of inflation when policy is guided by a simple monetary rule where coefficients switch with the policy regime. We rule out the possibility of a Hopf bifurcation and demonstrate the possibility of a period-doubling bifurcation. As a result, a small change in the parameters (e.g., a more active policy response) can lead to a drastic change in the path of inflation. We show that the New Keynesian model with a current-looking Taylor rule is not prone to bifurcations. A New Keynesian model with a hybrid rule, however, exhibits the same pattern of period-doubling bifurcations as the analysis with a simple monetary rule.

This paper examines the effects of fiscal devaluations in a model of a monetary union characterized by national fiscal policies and supranational monetary policy. We show that a revenue-neutral permanent tax shift in one country, which raises its consumption tax to finance a cut to labor taxes, increases welfare of the monetary union in the long run. The distribution of gains among countries depends on their degree of financial integration. We also document that price rigidities result in short-run welfare costs.

How much should society invest in medical care that extends the lives of the older generations? We derive a golden rule for the level of health care expenditures and find that the optimal level of life-extending health care expenditures should increase with rising productivity, increase with the retirement age, and also increase with the population growth rate if a higher growth rate lowers the ratio of retirees to working-age people sufficiently, while the effects of an improvement in medical technology are ambiguous. Moreover, we find that a market economy may be inefficient in terms of the provision of life-extending health care because an individual ignores the effect of his own longevity on the income of others.

Current data provide macroeconomic information for a large number of countries and for long periods of time (macropanels). In such panels, slope heterogeneity and cross-section dependence (CSD) are the rule rather than the exception, leading the fixed effects slope estimators to be biased and inconsistent. This paper analyzes gross capital flows to emerging economies employing the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) model to account for slope heterogeneity and CSD. The results suggest that the AMG performs better than the fixed effects model and that not only country heterogeneity is important to analyze capital inflows to emerging economies, but also are the differences among the types of capital inflows.

This paper provides conditions under which an algorithm for the computation and simulation of Bewley–Huggett–Aiyagari models, based on state-space discretization, will converge to all true solutions. These conditions are shown to be satisfied in two standard examples: the Aiyagari model and its extension to endogenous labor. Bewley–Huggett– Aiyagari models are general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic, but no aggregate, shocks. The algorithm itself is based on discretization, while the theory importantly allows for making simulations using the approximate computational solution of the value function problem rather than the true model solution. The numerical results of applying the algorithm to both models are provided and investigated in terms of replication, revealing that the Aiyagari model overestimates the degree of precautionary savings in the high-risk-and-high-risk-aversion case. The results also show that both models almost certainly have a unique general equilibrium. Theoretically, the existence of equilibria was known, but uniqueness remained an open question.

We investigate the demand for money and the degree of substitutability among monetary assets in the United States using the generalized Leontief and the Minflex Laurent (ML) models as suggested by Serletis and Shahmoradi (2007). In doing so, we merge the demand systems literature with the recent financial econometrics literature, relaxing the homoskedasticity assumption and instead assuming that the covariance matrix of the errors of flexible demand systems is time-varying. We also pay explicit attention to theoretical regularity, treating the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis. Our findings indicate that only the curvature constrained ML model with a Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK) specification for the conditional covariance matrix is able to generate inference consistent with theoretical regularity.

Some recent empirical evidence questions the typically large size of government spending multipliers when the nominal interest rate is stuck at zero, finding output multipliers of around 1 or even lower, with an upper bound of around 1.5 in some circumstances. In this paper, we use a recent estimate of the degree of substitutability between private and government consumption in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to show that this channel significantly reduces the size of government spending multipliers obtained when the nominal interest rate is at zero. All else being equal, the relationship of substitutability makes a government spending shock crowd out private consumption while being less inflationary, thus, limiting the typically expansionary effect of the fall in the real interest rate. Subject to the nominal interest rate being constrained at zero, the model generates output multipliers ranging from 0.8 to 1.6.

We study the effect of exporting on markups building on two stylized facts: (1) exporters charge higher markups than nonexporters and (2) firms increase markups when they start to export. These facts suggest that exporting increases markups, but the causal relationship has not been studied directly. To do so, we modify Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) by adding decreasing returns technologies and demand and productivity shocks to account for sales correlations across markets. We calibrate and simulate a trade cost reduction. Old exporters increase markups on average, while new ones reduce them. Three mechanisms matter: (1) cost reductions are not fully passed on to prices, (2) firms expand, increasing marginal cost, and (3) foreign demand is more elastic than domestic demand. The first effect dominates along the intensive margin, while the others prevail along the extensive margin. Thus, exporters charge larger markups in spite of exporting, not because of it.

We add households with heterogeneous discount factors and constrained credit to a research and development (R&D)-based endogenous growth model. Borrowers' access to credit has profound implications for growth. The direction and magnitude of this effect depend on preferences over labor supply. If labor supply is highly elastic and households do not smooth their labor supply between labor that produces output and R&D, annual growth decreases from 11.6% to approximately zero as the debt-to-capital ratio rises from 0 to 1.38. If households instead have a strong preference for smoothing their labor supply, then growth increases from 2.91% to 3.83% as the debt-to-capital ratio rises from 0 to 1.55. In both cases, less elastic labor supply weakens these effects. The results are similar if existing ideas do not affect the creation of new ideas. Now, when households do not smooth their labor supply, less debt results in faster growth, and productivity and output converge to much higher values.

In models with a representative infinitely lived household, tax smoothing implies that the steady state of government debt should follow a random walk. This is unlikely to be the case in overlapping generations (OLG) economies, where the equilibrium interest rate may differ from the policy maker's rate of time preference. It may therefore be optimal to reduce debt today to reduce distortionary taxation in the future. In addition, the level of the capital stock in these economies is likely to be suboptimally low, and reducing government debt will crowd in additional capital. Using a version of the Blanchard-Yaari model of perpetual youth, with both public and private capital, we show that it is optimal in steady state for the government to hold assets. However, we also show how and why this level of government assets can fall short of both the level of debt that achieves the optimal capital stock and the level that eliminates income taxes. Finally, we compute the optimal adjustment path to this steady state.

Output Euler equations (OEE) for the US deliver slope estimates that are not significantly different from zero. This finding is counterintuitive as it implies a zero elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) and aggregate demand movements that are nonresponsive to the short-term real interest rate. This paper shows that failure to account for regime changes in the dynamics of the real interest rate is responsible for this result. Based on a joint specification for the OEE and the real interest rate in an unobserved components model framework with Markov-switching parameters, the means, variances, and degrees of persistence of the real interest rate are different for the periods 1966–1980, 1980–1985, and 1985–2015. Once these regime changes are taken into account, the EIS estimate is 0.1 and no longer statistically insignificant. This finding is robust to alternative measures of the output gap as well as different specifications for the natural real interest rate.

We introduce automation into a standard model of capital accumulation and show that (i) there is the possibility of perpetual growth, even in the absence of technological progress; (ii) the long-run economic growth rate declines with population growth, which is consistent with the available empirical evidence; (iii) there is a unique share of savings diverted to automation that maximizes long-run growth; and (iv) automation explains around 14% of the observed decline of the labor share over the last decades in the United States.

This paper considers an overlapping-generations model with pay-as-you-go social security and retirement decision making by an old agent. In addition, this paper assumes that labor productivity depreciates. Under this setting, socially optimal allocations are examined. The first-best allocation is an allocation that maximizes welfare when a social planner distributes resources and forces an old agent to work and retire as she wants. The second-best allocation is one that maximizes welfare when a social planner can use only pay-as-you-go social security in a decentralized economy. This paper finds a range of an old agent's labor productivity such that the first-best allocation is achieved in a decentralized economy. This finding differs from that in Michel and Pestieau [“Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model”, Annals of Economics & Finance, 2013], which notes that the first-best allocation cannot be achieved in a decentralized economy.

This study introduces financial intermediaries into the Schumpeterian growth model developed by Aghion et al. (2005, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 120, pp. 173–222). They collect deposits from households, provide funds for entrepreneurial projects, and monitor the entrepreneurs. I consider an economy with moral hazard problems: entrepreneurs can hide the result of a successful innovation and thereby avoid repaying financial intermediaries if the latter do not monitor entrepreneurial performance. I analyze the effects of financial intermediaries' activities on technological progress and economic growth in such an economy. I show that financial intermediaries need to monitor entrepreneurs in an economy where the legal protection of creditors is not strong enough. Such monitoring can resolve the moral hazard problem; however, it does not always promote technological innovation, because it could increase the cost of entrepreneurial innovation and thus reduce the amount invested for innovation. I also examine how monitoring by financial intermediaries affects the welfare of individuals through the stringency of financial markets.

This paper shows that expectations of possible future regime shifts can contribute to recent deep downturn and stagnant recovery in the US labor market. Apart from the current economic regimes, rational agents consider how regimes will unfold in the future and form their expectations based on the probability of occurrence. Possible regime shifts considered are the stance of monetary policy toward inflation, the degree of real wage rigidity, and the degree of autocorrelation of the shock process. The anticipation of regime shifts alters agents' decision rules and feeds back to labor market dynamics.