Ship collision risk is an important aspect of ship navigation safety. A systematic method to assess collision risk by monitoring parameter states continually is necessary and has proven effective. Another important factor in risk assessment is ship size, but the effect of the size of ship pairs has not been considered properly in many previous studies. This research utilises a systematic perspective to study collision risk of near-misses in ship-ship encounters. This fills a secondary research gap where previous risk assessments only investigated near-misses from the perspective of a single vessel. Following this proposed approach, ship pair encounter states can be continually tracked. Ultimately, a method of improved Vessel Collision Risk Operator (VCRO) to merge risk assessments of both ships is proposed through integration of near-miss collision risks in a systematic way, which overcomes the disadvantages of prior VCROs that only consider the maximum value, from which it is difficult to track and judge the risk trend. Utilising a case study, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through analysis of ship encounters, with ships of different sizes in the Baltic Sea.

The Automatic Identification System (AIS) is an integral element in vessel tracking. But what about ‘Satellite AIS’? Is Satellite AIS a viable, current and effective tool to assist in vessel tracking? This paper will present the basic premise of reception of AIS by Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. It will identify the technical aspects, present practical applications of Satellite AIS and look at implications for global tracking of vessels.

Thanks to its physical characteristics, Ultra-wideband (UWB) is one of the most promising technologies for indoor pedestrian navigation. UWB radio localisation systems however experience multipath phenomena that decrease the precision and the reliability of the user's location. To cope with complex indoor environments, UWB radio signals are coupled with inertial measurements from Micro Electro Mechanical Sensors (MEMS) in an extended Kalman filter. Improved performances of the filter are presented and compared with reference trajectories and with pure inertial solutions. Only specific selection methods enable this improvement by detecting and removing outliers in the raw localisation data.

Ship traffic is the factor that presents in almost all of the existing grounding risk models. It is considered to be one of the main factors affecting the expected frequency of ship groundings. This is mostly accepted by experts as common sense. However, there is no research available on the actual dependency between ship traffic and grounding accidents. In this paper, we conduct a study aimed at determining the statistical dependency between the density and distribution of traffic, the number and frequency of grounding accidents and the dependency between the complexity of waterways and an actual accident. For this purpose we utilise statistical analysis of maritime traffic, obtained from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and grounding accidents, enhanced with the expert elicitation techniques delivering the waterway complexity index. The sea area under investigation is the Gulf of Finland. The results show statistical dependency between frequency of grounding and waterway complexity as well as the traffic distribution. However, the study does not reveal any significant dependency between grounding and traffic density.

This paper presents the second part of the research activities carried out to develop a novel Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Avionics-Based Integrity Augmentation (ABIA) system for manned and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) applications. The ABIA system's architecture was developed to allow real-time avoidance of safety-critical flight conditions and fast recovery of the required navigation performance in case of GNSS data losses. In more detail, our novel ABIA system addresses all four cornerstones of GNSS integrity augmentation in mission- and safety-critical avionics applications: prediction (caution flags), avoidance (optimal flight path guidance), reaction (warning flags) and correction (recovery flight path guidance). Part 1 (Sabatini et al., 2012) presented the ABIA concept, architecture and key mathematical models used to describe GNSS integrity issues in aircraft applications. This second part addresses the ABIA caution and warning integrity flags criteria and presents the results of a simulation case study performed on the TORNADO Interdiction and Strike (IDS) aircraft.

First, a brief description is given of an algorithm for the generation of carrier-adjusted differential corrections. Next, the relationship between satellite elevation and the precision of GPS code observations is investigated, on the basis of data collected by TurboRogue SNR-8000, Trimble 4000 SSE and Trimble 4000 SST receivers. It is concluded that the precision of code observations decreases with decreasing elevation, particularly at low elevation and that the relationship can quite well be modelled by an exponential function. For different types of receivers and different types of code observables, this relationship may not be the same.

A novel design of an integrated system using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is proposed in this paper for the purpose of identifying ships at sea. TerraSAR-X® (SpotLight mode) images and AIS data collected over Incheon Port (Korea) and Tokyo Bay (Japan) were used on different dates. Four main steps for integration of SAR and AIS based ships can be identified, namely: ‘Time Matching’ to retrieve the respective Dead Reckoning (DR) position of the ships at SAR image acquisition times; ‘Position Matching’ based on a nearest neighbourhood re-sampling method with compensation of position shift; ‘Size Matching’ and ‘Speed Matching’. Under each of the matching criteria, the measurement error in each of the matching criteria was found to be less than 20% and the SAR extracted ship's hull boundaries were presented on a screen to display the system results. The results of this study will contribute to the design a Near-Real-Time (NRT) operational system for ship detection, identification, and classification by SARs in different data acquisition modes over various geographical locations at different acquisition times. This novel integrated system design will provide a most important preliminary step towards integration based on ships' hull monitoring in order to recognize ‘friend’ and ‘foe’ ship targets over a huge oceanic region and would be useful for coast guards as an early warning system.

Multi-rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), although originally designed and developed for defence and military purposes, in the last ten years have gained momentum, especially for civilian applications, such as search and rescue, surveying and mapping, and agricultural crops and monitoring. Thanks to their hovering and Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) capabilities and the capacity to carry out tasks with complete autonomy, they are now a standard platform for both research and industrial uses. However, while the flight control architecture is well established in the literature, there are still many challenges in designing autonomous guidance and navigation systems to make the UAV able to work in constrained and cluttered environments or also indoors. Therefore, the main motivation of this work is to provide a comprehensive and exhaustive literature review on the numerous methods and approaches to address path-planning problems for multi-rotor UAVs. In particular, the inclusion of a review of the related research in the context of Precision Agriculture (PA) provides a unified and accessible presentation for researchers who are initiating their endeavours in this subject.

Collision avoidance remains the most important concern for ships at sea. Despite the electronic equipment now fitted on ships to support the mariner, expert experience is still essential when a ship is in danger of colliding with the others. To include these experts' experiences to resolve the problems of collision, we have designed a fuzzy collision-avoidance expert system that includes a knowledge base to store facts and rules, an inference engine to simulate experts' decisions and a fuzzy interface device. Either a quartermaster or an autopilot system can then implement the avoidance action proposed in the research. To perform the task of collision-avoidance effectively, a robust autopilot system using the state space H∞ control methodology has been designed to steer a ship safely for various conditions at sea in performing course keeping, course-changing and route-tracking more robustly. The integration of fuzzy collision-avoidance and H∞autopilot systems is then proposed in this paper.

Differential Global Positioning Systems (DGPS) and the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) are included in a group of supporting systems (Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS)/Space-Based Augmentation System (SBAS)) for the American GPS. Their main task is to ensure better positioning characteristics (accuracy, reliability, continuity and availability) compared to GPS. Therefore, they are widely applied wherever GPS failures affect human safety, mainly in aviation, land and marine navigation. The aim of this paper is to assess the predictable positioning accuracy of DGPS and EGNOS receivers using a vessel manoeuvring in the Bay of Gdansk. Two receivers were used in the study: a Simrad MXB5 (DGPS) and a Trimble GA530 (EGNOS), which were simultaneously recording their coordinates. The obtained values were compared with the trajectory computed using a geodetic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver (Trimble R10) connected to a GNSS network, ensuring an accuracy of 2–3 cm (p = 0·95). During a four-hour measurement session, the accuracy statistics of these systems were determined based on around 11,500 positionings. Studies have shown that both positioning systems ensure a similar level of accuracy of their positioning services (approximately 0·5–2 m) and they meet the accuracy requirements set in published standards.

Collision avoidance is an intensive discussion issue for navigation safety. This article introduces a new routing algorithm for finding optimal routes with collision detection and avoidance on raster charts or planes. After the required data structure of the raster chart is initialized, the maze routing algorithm is applied to obtain the particular route of each ship. Those ships that have potential to collide will be detected by simulating the particular routes with ship domains. The collision avoidance scheme can be achieved by using the collision-area-marking method with collision avoidance rules at sea. The algorithm has linear time and space complexities, and is sufficiently fast to perform real-time routing on the raster charts.

The paper describes the system developed and used by the United States Hydrographic Office for selecting the optimum track for transoceanic crossings by applying long-range predictions of wind, waves and currents to a knowledge of how the routed vessel reacts to these variables. Over a period of two years, over 1000 optimum ship routes were provided to one authority, with an average reduction in travel time of 14 hours.

In the first part of this series of papers an outline was given of the approach made at the Royal Aircraft Establishment to the problems of estimating collision risk and of specifying the quality of navigation needed to make separation standards safe. It was stressed that estimates should be based on intensive observation of flying errors, rather than on speculative theories, and that it is more feasible to develop ‘upper limit’ estimating techniques than those which purport to give the exact risk. In summary, a list of seven ‘requirements’ was given, as a reminder of the essential principles which can so easily be overlooked in the piecemeal task of relating separation standards to collision risk.

The purpose of this paper is to show some of the theoretical techniques which have been developed at R.A.E. to satisfy five of these requirements. (The remaining two do not call for special techniques and will be dealt with when practical applications are described in Part III.) The paper contains three Appendixes, dealing with the frequency of losing separation in one dimension, the computation of P's from the assumed tail shapes, and the treatment of relative errors. These are not included here but will appear in the off-printed version which may be obtained from the Royal Aircraft Establishment.

Both this paper and the paper that follows by Mr. Attwooll are crown copyright and are reproduced with the permission of H.M. Stationery Office.

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) is essential for safety-of-life and liability critical applications. This paper discusses two fundamentally different ways to assess the integrity risk of an operation with RAIM, based on a different amount of information available: the expected (or average) performance that is computed using the GNSS models only and the real-time (or actual) performance, which also uses information on the internal status of a GNSS receiver. It is shown both theoretically and by simulation that the real-time integrity risk significantly exceeds the expected risk after the detection and exclusion of a failing satellite. Therefore, while most published RAIM algorithms base their performance assessment on the expected performance only, this is only correct when the requirements allow the risk evaluation to be averaged over multiple operations. However, when the GNSS integrity requirement is to be applied on a ‘per operation’ basis, real-time integrity measures are more appropriate.

SESAR is Europe's ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research system’. NextGen is the USA's ‘Next Generation Air Transport System’. SESAR and NextGen are developments targeted at post 2020. The common vision is to integrate and implement new technologies to improve air traffic management (ATM) performance – a ‘new paradigm’. SESAR and NextGen combine increased automation with new procedures to achieve safety, economic, capacity, environmental, and security benefits. The systems do not have to be identical, but must have aligned requirements for equipment standards and technical interoperability.

A key component is a ‘cooperative surveillance’ model, where aircraft are constantly transmitting their position (from navigational satellites), flight path intent, and other useful aircraft parameters – known as ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast). The focus for planning and executing system operations will increasingly be aircraft 4D trajectories: a 4D trajectory is the aircraft path, three space dimensions plus time, from gate-to-gate, i.e. including the path along the ground at the airport.

In analysing potential major ATM system changes, a simple division into five Key Test areas might be: Safety Credibility, Operational Concept, Technological Feasibility, Benefits and Costs, and Transition Path. The main attention here is on Benefits and Costs of SESAR. The strategic challenge will be to convince customers and stakeholders of the benefits of paradigm shift expenditure, given the associated impacts on future user charges, aircraft equipment investments and public expenditure. The analysis here shows that the existing cost benefit analysis results for SESAR are not particularly robust, possibly over-estimating Net Present Values by some tens of € billions.

In this article formulas useful for the calculation of aircraft mid-air collision probabilities at intersecting air routes are developed. The aircraft overlap density, a key parameter in the calculation, is expressed as a function of the intersection angle of air routes, aircraft speeds, the nominal separation, and parameters in the position-error distribution. Two representative probability models for position errors are used to illustrate the computational procedures suggested. A method of approximation over large navigation systems is also proposed.

The calculation of aircraft mid-air collision probabilities is an important step in the design of air-route structure and is a key element in the specification of separation standards and minimum requirements of facilities reliability and accuracy. A thorough analysis of collision probabilities for long-range parallel air routes over oceanic areas was reported by P. G. Reich in three research documents and in a series of papers published in this Journal in 1966. Analysis of collision probabilities at intersecting air routes typical in off-shore and continental areas, however, has not been fully explored to date. The only direct reference available on this subject appears to be the work by Bellantoni,7 in which a collision problem was formulated in the three-dimensional space and was apt to deal with airport terminal landing or take-off situations. For circumstances where horizontal linear air routes intersect one another at preassigned positions, the analysis provided by Bellantoni needs to be simplified and refashioned for use in extensive applications.

This study aims to evaluate ship collision frequency in port fairways. One case study is created using one month's real-time ship movement data from five major Singapore port fairways. Results show that tankers account for the biggest proportion in the Temasek fairway, whereas the percentage of Roll-on-Roll-Off (RORO) and passenger ships is quite small in the Temasek fairway, Sinki fairway, Jong fairway and Southern fairway. Tankers and container ships are the two major ship types involved in dangerous encounters. The largest number of dangerous head-on and overtaking encounters is located in the Jong fairway. The majority of dangerous crossing encounters have occurred in the West Keppel fairway and Jong fairway. Ship collision frequency at night is found to be significantly higher than during the day in these fairways.

Autonomous ships are gaining in importance and are expected to shape the future of the global shipping industry. This evolutionary shift raises serious issues about compliance with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea 1972 (COLREGs). This paper reviews the literature on autonomous ships from the perspective of the obligations of good seamanship imposed by COLREGs. The authors conclude that to facilitate the introduction of autonomous ships, the application barriers presented by COLREGs need to be analysed. With this goal, this paper presents a perspective from navigational practice. Four nautical scientists and two deck officers were invited to give their opinions. The analysis indicates that COLREGs require further elaboration and amendments to eliminate uncertainty of interpretation. In particular, the paper highlights the need to amend the ‘look-out’ rule (COLREGs Rule 5) to permit look-out by ‘computer vision’ alone while, at the same time, preserving the distinction between vessels navigating in restricted visibility and in sight of one another.

Most previous research has handled the task of ship type recognition by exploring hand-craft ship features, which may fail to distinguish ships with similar visual appearances. This situation motivates us to propose a novel deep learning based ship type recognition framework which we have named coarse-to-fine cascaded convolution neural network (CFCCNN). First, the proposed CFCCNN framework formats the input training ship images and data, and provides trainable input data for the hidden layers of the CFCCNN. Second, the coarse and fine steps are run in a nesting manner to explore discriminative features for different ship types. More specifically, the coarse step is trained in a similar manner to the traditional convolution neural network, while the fine step introduces regularisation mechanisms to extract more intrinsic ship features, and fine tunes parameter settings to obtain better recognition performance. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the CFCCNN model for recognising the most common types of merchant ship (oil tanker, container, LNG tanker, chemical carrier, general cargo, bulk carrier, etc.). The experimental results show that the proposed framework obtains better recognition performance than the conventional methods of ship type recognition.

A new navigation method, called a Line of Sight Counteraction Navigation (LOSCAN) algorithm has been introduced to aid manoeuvre decision making for collision avoidance based on a two-ship encounter. The LOSCAN algorithm is derived from an extension of the basic principle of traditional missile proportional navigation, recognising that the objective of the latter is target capture rather than target avoidance. The basic concept is to derive an acceleration command so as to increase the misalignment between the ships' relative velocity and the line-of-sight. The algorithm includes a risk assessment and the generation of appropriate navigation commands to manoeuvre own ship free of collision if a risk of collision exists. Numerical examples have been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. The relationship between the distance at the closest point of approach with respect to early warning distance, and with the norm of the acceleration, has also been analysed. In operation, the collision avoidance decision making process is a complicated problem, with its solution subject to ship states, practical dynamic constraints, Collision Avoidance Regulations (COLREGS), encountering ship manoeuvre coordination and human decision making factors. The proposed algorithm provides a consistent manoeuvre signal to aid decision-making.