Consider two sequences of bounded random variables, a value and a timing process, that satisfy the large deviation principle (LDP) with rate function J(⋅,⋅) and whose cumulative process satisfies the LDP with rate function I(⋅). Under mixing conditions, an LDP for estimates of I constructed by transforming an estimate of J is proved. For the case of a cumulative renewal process it is demonstrated that this approach is favourable to a more direct method, as it ensures that the laws of the estimates converge weakly to a Dirac measure at I.

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of controlled branching processes with random control functions. In a critical case, we establish sufficient conditions for both their almost-sure extinction and for their nonextinction with a positive probability. For some suitably chosen norming constants, we also determine different kinds of limiting behaviour for this class of processes.

We consider a classic competing-species model with the rates changed to include Gaussian white noise. We show that if the noise is not too large, then the stochastic version is ergodic. An explicit relation between the noise and the original competing-species parameters gives a sufficient condition for ergodicity.

We set up a model for electronic foreign-exchange markets, suggesting subordinators to represent sellers' and buyers' offers. Its analysis naturally leads to the study of level passage events. The classical level passage event concerns the joint law of the time, height, and jump size observed when a real-valued stochastic process first exceeds a given level h. We provide an up-to-date treatment in the case when this process is a subordinator, and extend these results to a multivariate setting.

Let (Yn, Nn)n≥1 be independent and identically distributed bivariate random variables such that the Nn are positive with finite mean ν and the Yn have a common heavy-tailed distribution F. We consider the process (Zn)n≥1 defined by Zn = Yn - Σn-1, where It is shown that the probability that the maximum M = maxn≥1Zn exceeds x is approximately as x → ∞, where F' := 1 - F. Then we study the integrated tail of the maximum of a random walk with long-tailed increments and negative drift over the interval [0, σ], defined by some stopping time σ, in the case in which the randomly stopped sum is negative. Finally, an application to risk theory is considered.

We consider single-server queues with exponentially distributed service times, in which the arrival process is governed by a semi-Markov process (SMP). Two service disciplines, processor sharing (PS) and random service (RS), are investigated. We note that the sojourn time distribution of a type-l customer who, upon his arrival, meets k customers already present in the SMP/M/1/PS queue is identical to the waiting time distribution of a type-l customer who, upon his arrival, meets k+1 customers already present in the SMP/M/1/RS queue. Two sets of system equations, one for the joint transform of the sojourn time and queue size distributions in the SMP/M/1/PS queue, and the other for the joint transform of the waiting time and queue size distributions in the SMP/M/1/RS queue, are derived. Using these equations, the mean sojourn time in the SMP/M/1/PS queue and the mean waiting time in the SMP/M/1/RS queue are obtained. We also consider a special case of the SMP in which the interarrival time distribution is determined only by the type of the customer who has most recently arrived. Numerical examples are also presented.

Particle filters are Monte Carlo methods that aim to approximate the optimal filter of a partially observed Markov chain. In this paper, we study the case in which the transition kernel of the Markov chain depends on unknown parameters: we construct a particle filter for the simultaneous estimation of the parameter and the partially observed Markov chain (adaptive estimation) and we prove the convergence of this filter to the correct optimal filter, as time and the number of particles go to infinity. The filter presented here generalizes Del Moral's Monte Carlo particle filter.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the optimal policy (the Gittins index policy) for open tax problems of the type considered by Klimov in the undiscounted limit. In this limit, the state-dependent part of the cost is linear in the state occupation numbers for the multi-armed bandit, but is quadratic for the tax problem. The discussion of the passage to the limit for the tax problem is believed to be largely new; the principal novelty is our evaluation of the matrix of the quadratic form. These results are confirmed by a dynamic programming analysis, which also suggests how the optimal policy should be modified when resources can be freely deployed only within workstations, rather than system-wide.

In this paper, we consider a risk model in which each main claim induces a delayed claim called a by-claim. The time of delay for the occurrence of a by-claim is assumed to be exponentially distributed. From martingale theory, an expression for the ultimate ruin probability can be derived using the Lundberg exponent of the associated nondelayed risk model. It can be shown that the Lundberg exponent of the proposed risk model is the same as that of the nondelayed one. Brownian motion approximations for ruin probabilities are also discussed.

We use a sample-path technique to derive asymptotics of generalized Jackson queueing networks in the fluid scale; that is, when space and time are scaled by the same factor n. The analysis only presupposes the existence of long-run averages and is based on some monotonicity and concavity arguments for the fluid processes. The results provide a functional strong law of large numbers for stochastic Jackson queueing networks, since they apply to their sample paths with probability 1. The fluid processes are shown to be piecewise linear and an explicit formulation of the different drifts is computed. A few applications of this fluid limit are given. In particular, a new computation of the constant that appears in the stability condition for such networks is given. In a certain context of a rare event, the fluid limit of the network is also derived explicitly.

We derive an integral equation for the transient probabilities and expected number in the queue for the multiserver queue with Poisson arrivals, exponential service for time-varying arrival and departure rates, and a time-varying number of servers. The method is a straightforward application of generating functions. We can express pĉ−1(t), the probability that ĉ − 1 customers are in the queue or being served, in terms of a Volterra equation of the second kind, where ĉ is the maximum number of servers working during the day. Each of the other transient probabilities is expressed in terms of integral equations in pĉ−1(t) and the transition probabilities of a certain time-dependent random walk. In this random walk, the rate of steps to the right equals the arrival rate of the queue and the rate of steps to the left equals the departure rate of the queue when all servers are busy.

A cut-off phenomenon is shown to occur in a sample of n independent, identically distributed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and its average. Their distributions stay far from equilibrium before a certain O(log(n)) time, and converge exponentially fast after. Precise estimates show that the total variation distance drops from almost 1 to almost 0 over an interval of time of length O(1) around log(n)/(2α), where α is the viscosity coefficient of the sampled process. The distribution of the hitting time of 0 by the average of the sample is computed. As n tends to infinity, the hitting time becomes concentrated around the cut-off instant, and its tails match the estimates given for the total variation distance.

We give the exact asymptotics of the tail of the stationary maximal dater in generalized Jackson networks with subexponential service times. This maximal dater, which is an analogue of the workload in an isolated queue, gives the time taken to clear all customers present at some time t when stopping all arrivals that take place later than t. We use the property that a large deviation of the maximal dater is caused by a single large service time at a single station at some time in the distant past of t, in conjunction with fluid limits of generalized Jackson networks, to derive the relevant asymptotics in closed form.

Given an ℝd-valued supercritical branching Wiener process, let ψ(A, T) be the number of particles in A ⊂ ℝd at time T (T = 0, 1, 2, …). We provide a complete asymptotic expansion of ψ(A, T) as T → ∞, generalizing the work of X. Chen.

We consider a two-stage tandem queue with two parallel servers and two queues. We assume that initially all jobs are present and that no further arrivals take place at any time. The two servers are identical and can serve both types of job. The processing times are exponentially distributed. After being served, a job of queue 1 joins queue 2, whereas a job of queue 2 leaves the system. Holding costs per job and per unit time are incurred if there are jobs holding in the system. Our goal is to find the optimal strategy that minimizes the expected total holding costs until the system is cleared. We give a complete solution for the optimal control of all possible parameters (costs and service times), especially for those parameter regions in which the optimal control depends on how many jobs are present in the two queues.

In this paper, we study a class of bisexual Galton-Watson branching processes in which the law of offspring distribution is dependent on the population size. Under a suitable condition on the offspring distribution, we prove that the limit of mean growth-rate per mating unit exists. Based on this limit, we give a criterion to identify whether the process admits ultimate extinction with probability one.

We introduce the idea of controlling branching processes by means of another branching process, using the fractional thinning operator of Steutel and van Harn. This idea is then adapted to the model of alternating branching, where two Markov branching processes act alternately at random observation and treatment times. We study the extinction probability and limit theorems for reproduction by n cycles, as n → ∞.

We provide sufficient conditions for the following types of random variable to have the increasing-failure-rate (IFR) property: sums of a random number of random variables; the time at which a Markov chain crosses a random threshold; the time until a random number of events have occurred in an inhomogeneous Poisson process; and the number of events of a renewal process, and of a general counting process, that have occurred by a randomly distributed time.

We study birth-death processes on the nonnegative integers, where {1, 2,…} is an irreducible class and 0 an absorbing state, with the additional feature that a transition to state 0 may occur from any state. We give a condition for absorption (extinction) to be certain and obtain the eventual absorption probabilities when absorption is not certain. We also study the rate of convergence, as t → ∞, of the probability of absorption at time t, and relate it to the common rate of convergence of the transition probabilities that do not involve state 0. Finally, we derive upper and lower bounds for the probability of absorption at time t by applying a technique that involves the logarithmic norm of an appropriately defined operator.

We derive several algorithms for the busy period distribution of the canonical Markovian fluid flow model. One of them is similar to the Latouche-Ramaswami algorithm for quasi-birth-death models and is shown to be quadratically convergent. These algorithms significantly increase the efficiency of the matrix-geometric procedures developed earlier by the authors for the transient and steady-state analyses of fluid flow models.