This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models.

This paper extends the debate on the environmental performance of developing countries by focusing on a new factor. Theoretically, financial development has capitalization, technology, income, and regulation effects on the environment. Using the provincial panel data of China, the econometric analysis provides some evidence of a linkage between financial development and industrial pollution discharges. In recent years, the environmental performance of China has been significantly improved by financial development and some environmental protection schemes. This relationship offers new implications for policy makers in developing countries.

This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country. The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishesmore complex precipitation effects.We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for SriLanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from −11 billion rupees (−20 per cent) to +39 billion rupees (+72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario.

The search for sustainability indicators should be guided by a theory of sustainable development (SD). In this paper we investigate two such theoretical frameworks and the indicators that they suggest. Indicators associated with weak sustainability are characterized by aggregative indicators such as green national income. We conclude, however, that a more promising offshoot of green accounting is measures of genuine savings (i.e. savings adjusted for loss of assets). To achieve SD, genuine savings rates must not be persistently negative. Strong sustainability indicators accord a more central role to the conservation of critical natural assets within the broader goal of prudently managing a nation's portfolio of assets over time. We discuss two approaches—carrying capacity and resilience—and conclude that, while measures of resilience are potentially attractive, more research is required regarding the resilience–SD link. However, an important conclusion that we can make is that, even in an economy operating under a strong sustainability regime, genuine savings are still key indicators of SD and are complementary to measures of changes in stocks of critical natural assets.

Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, due to its low-lying topography, high population density and widespread poverty. In this paper, we report on the development and results of an agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change. The main modules are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidences of extreme poverty, socioeconomic vulnerability, demography, and historical drought, cyclone and flood patterns. The results suggest likely changes in population densities across Bangladesh due to migration from the drought-prone western districts and areas vulnerable to cyclones and floods in the south, towards northern and eastern districts. The model predicts between 3 and 10 million internal migrants over the next 40 years, depending on the severity of the hazards. Some associated policy considerations are also discussed.

This paper assesses the implications of large-scale investments in biofuels for growth and income distribution. We find that biofuels investment enhances growth and poverty reduction despite some displacement of food crops by biofuels. Overall, the biofuel investment trajectory analyzed increases Mozambique's annual economic growth by 0.6 percentage points and reduces the incidence of poverty by about 6 percentage points over a 12-year phase-in period. Benefits depend on production technology. An outgrower approach to producing biofuels is more pro-poor, due to the greater use of unskilled labor and accrual of land rents to smallholders, compared with the more capital-intensive plantation approach. Moreover, the benefits of outgrower schemes are enhanced if they result in technology spillovers to other crops. These results should not be taken as a green light for unrestrained biofuels development. Rather, they indicate that a carefully designed and managed biofuels policy holds the potential for substantial gains.

This paper examines coping strategies in response to covariate flood shocks and idiosyncratic health shocks among riverine peasant households in the Amazonian tropical forests. An assessment of coping strategies reveals that although precautionary savings (food stock and livestock) are important for both types of shocks, ex post labor supply responses in the form of upland cropping and resource extraction (fishing and non-timber forest product gathering) are more common to cope with the flood shock depending on local environments. A bivariate probit model examines what factors shape households' adoption decisions of gathering and fishing as a coping strategy. The analysis reveals an important insurance role of non-timber forest product gathering for the asset poor who have limited options for coping with flood risk. Targeted interventions and programs for the poor to promote sustainable forest resource use are discussed.

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of the relationship between income and the rate of deforestation of tropical natural forests. The inverted U-shaped relationship known as the environmental Kuznets curve is confirmed. The study focuses on the role of institutions and macroeconomic policy in the deforestation process. Results indicate that the quality of governance is an important determinant of forest resource preservation, and that rural population pressure is not as important as suggested by other studies. Agricultural technology improvement and enhanced educational attainment also lead to reductions of deforestation rates.

This short piece introduces the special issue on environmental Kuznets curves (EKC) — the hypothesized 'inverted-U' relationship between levels of environmental degradation and per capita income. Although the analysis of EKC relationships has been a relatively recent phenomenon, there is widespread interest on the part of academics in this analysis, and on the part of policymakers in the resulting implications for environment and development. The following introduction outlines the contributions to EKC analysis of the papers comprising the special issue. This is done in two ways: first, the empirical results of the special issue papers are compared with previous analyses of the EKC relationships; and second, the additional insights offered by the special issue papers on EKCs are discussed.

We estimate and quantify the fiscal consequences of natural disasters using quarterly fiscal data for a large panel of countries. In our estimations, we employ a panel vector autoregression framework that also controls for the business cycle. In developed countries, we find fiscal behavior in the aftermath of disasters that can best be characterized as counter-cyclical. In contrast, we find pro-cyclical decreased spending and increasing revenues in developing countries following large natural catastrophes. These pro-cyclical fiscal dynamics are likely to worsen the adverse consequences of natural disasters on middle- and low-income countries. We quantify these dynamics.

This article analyzes effects of insect-resistant Bt cotton on pesticide use and agricultural productivity in Argentina. Based on farm survey data, it is shown that the technology reduces application rates of toxic chemicals by 50 per cent, while significantly increasing yields. Using a damage control framework, the effectiveness of Bt versus chemical pesticides is estimated, and technological impacts are predicted for different farm types. Gross benefits could be highest for smallholder farmers, who are not currently using the technology. The durability of the advantages is analyzed by using biological models to simulate resistance development in pest populations. Rapid resistance buildup and associated pest outbreaks appear to be unlikely if minimum non-Bt refuge areas are maintained. Thus, promoting a more widespread diffusion of Bt cotton could amplify the efficiency, equity, and environmental gains. Conclusive statements about the technology's sustainability, however, require longer-term monitoring of possible secondary effects and farmers' behavior in maintaining refuges.

This paper extends previous empirical studies of the environmental Kuznets curve by examining the role of rising incomes in promoting development of new technologies directed toward environmental improvements. The main result, based on an analysis of data from 19 OECD countries for the period 1980–94, shows that the income elasticity of public research and development funding for environmental protection is positive, and may be close to unity. This finding suggests that emissions of at least some pollutants may decline with income after a threshold level of income is reached. However, this should be interpreted cautiously in light of: (1) the small size of public research and development funding relative to overall spending on environmental protection, (2) the ability of a country to substitute between public and private research and development expenditures, as well as among alternative policy instruments, and (3) the possibility that public research and development funding may be a form of industrial subsidy in some countries.

Vitamin A enriched rice (Golden Rice) is a cost-efficient solution that can substantially reduce health costs. Despite Golden Rice being available since early 2000, this rice has not been introduced in any country. Governments must perceive additional costs that overcompensate the benefits of the technology to explain the delay in approval. We develop a real option model including irreversibility and uncertainty about perceived costs and arrival of new information to explain a delay in approval. The model has been applied to the case of India. Results show the annual perceived costs have to be at least US$199 million per year approximately for the last decade to explain the delay in approval of the technology. This is an indicator of the economic power of the opposition towards Golden Rice resulting in about 1.4 million life years lost over the past decade in India.

This study investigates the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on emissions of five pollutants in China using a panel data set of 29 provinces over the period 1992–2004. The study applies a simultaneous equations estimation technique to estimate the scale, technique and composition effects of FDI on China's overall and regional pollution emissions. The estimation results show that FDI in general helps reduce pollution emissions in China, contributing largely to its technique effect. Capturing both the direct and indirect technique effects improves the accuracy in assessing the environmental impact of the FDI. The study also finds that the environmental impacts of FDI vary significantly among different regions and for different pollutants in China.

This paper examines whether a country's stage of development affects its climate sensitivity. The paper begins with a model of agriculture that shows that the effect of development on climate sensitivity is ambiguous, depending on the substitution between capital and climate. To resolve this issue, the climate sensitivity of agriculture in the United States, Brazil, and India is measured using a Ricardian approach. Relying on both intertemporal as well as cross-country comparisons, the empirical analysis suggests that increasing development reduces climate sensitivity.

This paper aims to assess the effect of natural disasters closely related to climate change on migration rates in developing countries, observing how this effect varies according to the level of education. We investigate this relationship by using panel data that measure international migration from developing countries to the main OECD destination countries. Estimations are made with a pair-country fixed effects estimator. The results show that natural disasters are positively associated with emigration rates. Furthermore, we show that natural disasters may exacerbate the brain drain in developing countries when they are at their most vulnerable and need greater support from skilled workers. We also find that the effect of natural disasters on migration varies depending on the geographical location of countries, as well as according to the type of disaster.

Recent micro-economic studies of in situ conservation of crop diversity focus on competition between modern and traditional varieties of major food crops. Our paper offers a different, crop system, approach and a limited-dependent variable econometric technique to model in situ conservation of both intra- and infra-species crop diversity in a context of heterogeneous ecological and market environments, using unique household-farm data from Mexico. Our findings reject separability and indicate that market integration significantly reduces crop diversity. They underline the importance of studying diversity in the context of larger cropping systems and economic environments.

As a wide-reaching institutional reform, China's fiscal decentralization was launched in the early 1980s to encourage provincial economic growth by granting more financial autonomy to provincial governments. In this paper, the impact of fiscal decentralization on China's environmental quality is investigated both theoretically and empirically. A neoclassical model is developed based on the primary characteristics of China's fiscal decentralization. Using provincial panel data for the period 1995-2015, a two-equation regression model is employed to empirically verify the three propositions of the theoretical model: (1) there exists an inverted-U shaped relationship between fiscal decentralization and GDP per capita; (2) fiscal decentralization is positively related to GDP per capita at the steady state; (3) there is an inverted-U shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship between pollution emissions and economic growth.

Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have potentially damaging implications for developing countries. Previous studies have estimated economic losses during hypothetical or single historical events, and have relied on historical production data rather than explicitly modeling climate. However, effective mitigation strategies require knowledge of the full distribution of weather events and their isolated effects on economic outcomes. We combine stochastic hydrometeorological crop-loss models with a regionalized computable general equilibrium model to estimate losses for the full distribution of possible weather events in Malawi. Results indicate that, based on repeated sampling from historical events, at least 1.7 per cent of Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) is lost each year due to the combined effects of droughts and floods. Smaller-scale farmers in the southern region of the country are worst affected. However, poverty among urban and nonfarm households also increases due to national food shortages and higher domestic prices.

Environmental regulations typify a large class of activities in the public sector where government agencies are required to monitor the degree of compliance. These tasks are usually delegated to bureaucrats who, as self-interested agents, may engage in corrupt behavior. Such problems abound, particularly in developing countries, where corruption is regarded as one of the major causes of environmental degradation. This paper investigates the implications of corruption for the optimal design of environmental regulations and analyses the interaction between the prosecution rate, monitoring rate, and fines. It is shown that even if corruption can be deterred the fact that it may occur substantially impedes the ability of a regulator to control environmentally degrading activities.