Anticipating future migration trends is instrumental to the development of effective policies to manage the challenges and opportunities that arise from population movements. However, anticipation is challenging. Migration is a complex system, with multifaceted drivers, such as demographic structure, economic disparities, political instability, and climate change. Measurements encompass inherent uncertainties, and the majority of migration theories are either under-specified or hardly actionable. Moreover, approaches for forecasting generally target specific migration flows, and this poses challenges for generalisation.

In this paper, we present the results of a case study to predict Irregular Border Crossings (IBCs) through the Central Mediterranean Route and Asylum requests in Italy. We applied a set of Machine Learning techniques in combination with a suite of traditional data to forecast migration flows. We then applied an ensemble modelling approach for aggregating the results of the different Machine Learning models to improve the modelling prediction capacity.

Our results show the potential of this modelling architecture in producing forecasts of IBCs and Asylum requests over 6 months. The explained variance of our models through a validation set is as high as 80%. This study offers a robust basis for the construction of timely forecasts. In the discussion, we offer a comment on how this approach could benefit migration management in the European Union at various levels of policy making.

In an era of globalized research endeavors, the interplay between government funding programs, funding decisions, and their influence on successful research collaborations and grant application success rates has emerged as a critical focus of inquiry. This study embarks on an in-depth analysis of cross-country funding dynamics over the past three decades, with a specific emphasis on support for academic-industry collaboration versus sole academic or industry funding. Drawing insights from comprehensive datasets and policy trends, our research illuminates the evolving landscape of research funding and collaboration policies. We examine funding by Innosuisse (Swiss Innovation Project Funding) and SBIR (US Small Business Innovation Research), exploring the rates of future grant success for both academic and industry partners. We find strong evidence of rich-get-richer phenomenon in the Innosuisse program for both academic partners and industry partners in terms of winning future grants. For SBIR we find weaker levels of continued funding to the same partners with most attaining at most a few grants. With the increasing prevalence of academic-industry collaborations among both funders, it is worth considering additional efforts to ensure that novel ideas and new individuals and teams are supported.

Data is the foundation of any scientific, industrial, or commercial process. Its journey flows from collection to transport, storage, and processing. While best practices and regulations guide its management and protection, recent events have underscored their vulnerabilities. Academic research and commercial data handling have been marred by scandals, revealing the brittleness of data management. Data is susceptible to undue disclosures, leaks, losses, manipulation, or fabrication. These incidents often occur without visibility or accountability, necessitating a systematic structure for safe, honest, and auditable data management. We introduce the concept of Honest Computing as the practice and approach that emphasizes transparency, integrity, and ethical behaviour within the realm of computing and technology. It ensures that computer systems and software operate honestly and reliably without hidden agendas, biases, or unethical practices. It enables privacy and confidentiality of data and code by design and default. We also introduce a reference framework to achieve demonstrable data lineage and provenance, contrasting it with Secure Computing, a related but differently orientated form of computing. At its core, Honest Computing leverages Trustless Computing, Confidential Computing, Distributed Computing, Cryptography, and AAA security concepts. Honest Computing opens new ways of creating technology-based processes and workflows which permit the migration of regulatory frameworks for data protection from principle-based approaches to rule-based ones. Addressing use cases in many fields, from AI model protection and ethical layering to digital currency formation for finance and banking, trading, and healthcare, this foundational layer approach can help define new standards for appropriate data custody and processing.

This commentary explores MENA”s AI governance, addressing gaps, showcasing successful strategies, and comparing national approaches. It emphasizes current deficiencies, highlights regional contributions to global AI governance, and offers insights into effective frameworks. The study reveals distinctions and trends in MENA”s national AI strategies, serving as a concise resource for policymakers and industry stakeholders.