If Oscar Wilde had been concerned with this paper I think he might well have said: “To be asked to attempt an essay on the development of an engineering specialisation over the next hundred years may be regarded as a misfortune. To attempt to predict the form that control of a complex creative process will take looks like carelessness”. Having undertaken the task, perhaps somewhat carelessly, my first attempts to assemble some thoughts led to the conclusion that I was not only careless but also foolish and as such unqualified to present any views I might have. This paper is the result of a determination to break out of this unproductive frame of mind and to set down my personal views for what they are worth. I can only hope the paper has not turned out to be “A Trivial Comedy for Serious People”.

Navigation has been defined as “the business of conducting a craft as it moves about its ways“. This broad definition of navigation encompasses the whole process of handling, steering, control, guidance and operation of the craft in a safe and economic manner. Navigation has a much longer history than aeronautics. As man first began to explore the world and to develop trade, the need for safe and predictable operation of the craft was a spur to the application of the most advanced science and technology of the day.

Modern developments in materials, and the possibilities they offer in present and future engineering, make up a subject on which there has been no shortage of publications in recent years. It would not be possible, in a single article, to review the likely future developments in all the materials of interest to aeronautics; in any case some detailed references have already been made to this subject in other articles, notably that by Molyneux (July JOURNAL) on structural engineering. The point of view adopted here is rather more long-ranging, and certainly more speculative. A separate specialist contribution is being provided on polymeric materials in a later paper in this series and these are not, therefore, examined in any detail here.

“Man's curiosity searches past and future
And clings to that dimension. But to apprehend
The point of intersection of the timeless
With time, is an occupation for the saint.”
The Dry Salvages—T. S. Eliot

Why include the topic of education and training, it could be asked, in a series devoted to predicting ahead to the Second Century of the Society. It is obvious that in the other fields covered there is bound to be great technological progress but men, it might be thought, will teach, and learn, and study much as they do today, and as they did yesterday. Thus we could advise our student engineer that “the acquirements which are necessary to enable the individual to distinguish himself, or even to practise his profession with a moderate chance of success are partly abstract and theoretical, and partly experimental or practical.

It has recently been decided by the Council that the newly elected and installed President may, if he so wishes, give an Address. While Presidential Addresses are not new to the Society this is now to be a part of its policy, although still voluntary. So, after some thought as to whether I should risk telling you much of what you already may know, I decided to give my views on this and that and also what I conceive to be the role of the Society in relation to the Aircraft Industry.

The establishment of an Industry Training Board for the civil air transport industry in March 1967 provided, for the first time, a single central point of focus for the trained manpower needs of the Industry. The early months of the Board's existence were preoccupied with the establishment of its own internal administration, with the search for accommodation, and with the recruitment and selection of staff. These internal matters were largely disposed of by April 1968, and since then the Board has started to fulfil its proper function.

I would first like to pay tribute to the inspiration which suggested the series of papers on The Next Hundred Years, the second century of the RAeS. John E. Allen's introductory paper in the January, 1968 issue of the Journal set the stage for a remarkable series of individual papers in which technology, philosophy and sociology have combined to give a vision of a challenging future, often exciting but occasionally sobering. Coming at the conclusion of this series, I have interpreted my task to be that of looking at this future through the eyes of a technical man in the aerospace industry of the United States. Before settling down to this task, it seems appropriate to make a few remarks on the general nature of technological prophesies; in doing so, I am following a pattern which has been set by a number of my predecessors in this series. Occasionally these general remarks have taken the form of a reminder of the uncertainty of the process of technical forecasting.

I am very conscious of the great honour of being invited to deliver this fourth Reynolds-Prandtl Lecture. At the same time, I am very pleased. As far as I am concerned, the spirit of these two great scientists is still alive. They are both with me every day—at least, I have pictures of them in my office and I look at them every day. As has been said before, their influence is as strong as ever and many of the problems that engaged their attention are even today only partially solved. However, there is more to it than that. Their example and their work have left me with many other problems to think about, which concern the kind of work we do and the aims we pursue. The present lecture gives me an opportunity to put before you some of the thoughts that occupy my mind and which I should like to be discussed. I feel quite strongly that these problems deserve our attention. It may even be vital for the survival of research in our field to find answers to them, which satisfy not only ourselves but also the society in which we live.

This Title “Air Photography” covers a tremendous subject. In fact, so big that I am not going to attempt to deal with more than one aspect of it, and even that will have to be severely pruned.

To the best of my knowledge, nobody has yet written the history, but it is certain that picture taking took place long before I came on to the stage. Balloon-to-balloon, airship-to-airship and ‘plane-to-’plane. Wherever there was the promise of a picture, you would find a man with a camera.

Those were really the days of the true pioneers, not only of flying, but of photography itself, because that science was in its infancy, and the exponents of it were few and far between.

Sir Robert Wynne-Edwards (Past Chairman, CEI): To understand the Council of Engineering Institutions one needs to consider first the historical development. When, 150 years ago, the Institution of Civil Engineers was formed it was set up to provide a forum where engineers could meet and discuss matters relative to any branch of engineering and where young men could attend to become educated in the profession. Unlike its counterpart in other countries it had no government sponsorship and at that time there was no academic teaching in engineering in Britain.

In this lecture I intend to talk about two treaties adopted under the auspices of the General Assembly of the United Nations. To give them their full titles, they are the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space including the Moon and other Celestial Bodies and the Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space. For convenience, I shall call them the Treaty on Outer Space and the Agreement on Rescue and Return.

The Eleventh Anglo-American Conference was held in London at the Royal Aeronautical Society. The technical sessions were held in the first week of the Conference, 8th-12th September in the Lecture Theatre when 22 lectures were given to over 300 delegates from 8 countries. The main themes of the conference ranged from the new generation of large subsonic aircraft and supersonic transports to the future of engine technology and advanced ideas in avionics. Summaries of the lectures were given in the July Journal, pp LVII-LXII.

This lecture is being given primarily because of the growing tide of concern felt by persons engaged in the class of flying described in the title at what seems to them to be the growing number of prosecutions each year under the Civil Aviation Act 1949 and delegated legislation made under it. During 1966-1967 and 1968 a few low flying cases achieved prominence because the charges were dismissed upon the basis that the prosecution's evidence was inadequate to discharge the burden of proof of low flying. These low flying cases angered not only those directly involved in them but also many persons in the general aviation movement, because it seemed to them unfair that prosecutions should be begun on poor evidence, that large sums of money and a great deal of time and trouble should have to be spent on the defences of them, and that inadequate costs should be recovered from local funds to compensate successful defendants for the costs incurred in their own defences. However, I have chosen to interpret the title as including reference to certain other legal topics outside the criminal.

It is, and always will be, an honour to give the Handley Page Memorial Lecture, but for me the occasion has a special pietas because Sir Frederick Handley Page was a friend of mine for many years and I admired his extraordinary intelligence, pertinacity and independence of character. I had the honour to immediately follow him in two offices of high importance—as President of the RAeS and as Chairman of the Governors of this College, and as this is the last major lecture I intend to give, I am particularly happy that it is in his memory, just as the first major lecture I ever gave was in memory of that other great pioneer, Wilbur Wright.

At the first meeting of our Society in January 1866, James Glaisher advised us to “exclude any matter that may seem useless in forwarding the science, or that has the slightest chance of giving rise to ridicule …” this warning was timely and relevant to this theme for to consider the long-term future with as much rationality as is required for short-term forecasting and planning studies, is a valuable exercise in restraint as well as in imagination. So many avenues of possible development are technologically interesting, but in economic terms are sterile and unrewarding. One emerges with a deep conviction that certain areas of research and development may be in a dominant position in their influence on future aviation growth. Two of these are noise control and the evolution of composite materials. Although fairly obvious it seems important that they and some others be given the financial support which they deserve.

When I was young and in my prime,
The Boats were flying all the time.
But now that I am old and gray,
Those Boats, like me, have had their Day.

The first time I saw flying-boats close-up was in 1928. The first was an old Curtiss HS2L being used in Tima-gami for forest fire patrol in northern Canada. Designed in about 1916, this antique was at the end of its tether, but was doing a job that no other aircraft could do until a replacement became available. The second flying-boat I saw was this replacement, the Canadian Vickers Vedette, another single-engined pusher biplane, but a much better one.

At the outset, may I emphasise how honoured I feel to be invited to speak before the Royal Aeronautical Society and that I am very grateful for the opportunity to give a report on the work and activities of the Dornier concern.

It is hardly possible within the narrow scope of a lecture to include any exhaustive and detailed discussion of the development and research work accomplished by the Dornier concern in post-war years.

Instead, I shall try to give you an idea of some of the work performed or still under way, which may perhaps reveal characteristics which are typical of our working conditions and methods.

The purpose of this prologue is to outline how I have approached the arrogant and impossible task of surveying an unborn century of law. I may also be able to illustrate that the nature and quality of the task is completely different from that attempted in the preceding papers.

In the whole paper I have done little more than infer repeatedly, in different ways

1. (a) that the shape of the future so far as law is concerned will be determined by the methods of communication adopted between sectors of the aerospace community and between the aerospace community and society at large, and

2. (b) that the search for effective methods of communication is urgent.

But my target is not the lawyers of our community—who I am not qualified to advise. I write for the other members of the Royal Aeronautical Society and I return to the task of persuading them that they have a role to play in evolving future laws for aerospace activities.

Sir William Hildred drew upon his personal experiences until 1966 as Director General of the International Air Transport Association.

That body worked closely with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO)—the author, instigator, and watchdog of Annex 9 of the Chicago Convention which dealt wholly with the subject of facilitation. Neither body had legislative power. ICAO could only make recommendations but these required the assent and action of Sovereign Governments before they became effective. The President of ICAO had said it was the increase in passenger and cargo volume which created the problem but Sir William ascribed a good deal of it to the entrenched conservatism of Governments and their operating agencies.