In this paper a stochastic failure model for a system with stochastically dependent competing failures is analyzed. The system is subject to two types of failure: degradation failure and catastrophic failure. Both types of failure share an initial common source: an external shock process. This implies that they are stochastically dependent. In our developments of the model, the type of dependency between the two kinds of failure will be characterized. Conditional properties of the two competing risks are also investigated. These properties are the fundamental basis for the development of the maintenance strategy studied in this paper. Considering this maintenance strategy, the long-run average cost rate is derived and the optimal maintenance policy is discussed.

We consider a failure-prone system operating in continuous time. Condition monitoring is conducted at discrete time epochs. The state of the system is assumed to evolve as a continuous-time Markov process with a finite state space. The observation process with continuous-range values is stochastically related to the state process, which, except for the failure state, is unobservable. Combining the failure information and the condition monitoring information, we derive a general recursive filter, and, as special cases, we obtain recursive formulae for the state estimation and other quantities of interest. Updated parameter estimates are obtained using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Some practical prediction problems are discussed and finally an illustrative example is given using a real dataset.

In this paper, we study the on-line parameter estimation problem for a partially observable system subject to deterioration and random failure. The state of the system evolves according to a continuous-time homogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The state of the system is hidden except for the failure state. When the system is operating, only the information obtained by condition monitoring, which is related to the working state of the system, is available. The condition monitoring observations are assumed to be in continuous range, so that no discretization is required. A recursive maximum likelihood (RML) algorithm is proposed for the on-line parameter estimation of the model. The new RML algorithm proposed in the paper is superior to other RML algorithms in the literature in that no projection is needed and no calculation of the gradient on the surface of the constraint manifolds is required. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the algorithm.

We consider a failure-prone system which operates in continuous time and is subject to condition monitoring at discrete time epochs. It is assumed that the state of the system evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with a finite state space. The observation process is stochastically related to the state process which is unobservable, except for the failure state. Combining the failure information and the information obtained from condition monitoring, and using the change of measure approach, we derive a general recursive filter, and, as special cases, we obtain recursive formulae for the state estimation and other quantities of interest. Up-dated parameter estimates are obtained using the EM algorithm. Some practical prediction problems are discussed and an illustrative example is given using a real dataset.

Modern industry is concerned about extending the lifetime of its critical processes and maintaining them only when required. Significant aspects of these trends include the ability to diagnose impending failures, prognosticate the remaining useful lifetime of the process and schedule maintenance operations so that uptime is maximized. Prognosis is probably the most difficult of the three issues leading to condition-based maintenance (CBM). This paper attempts to address this challenging problem with intelligence-oriented techniques, specifically dynamic wavelet neural networks (DWNNs). DWNNs incorporate temporal information and storage capacity into their functionality so that they can predict into the future, carrying out fault prognostic tasks. Such fundamental issues as the network structure, learning algorithms, stability analysis, uncertainty management, and performance assessment are studied in a theoretical framework. An example is presented in which a trained DWNN successfully prognoses a defective bearing with a crack in its inner race.

In this paper we generalize the minimal repair replacement model introduced by Barlow and Hunter (1960). We assume that there is available information about the underlying condition of the system, for instance through measurements of wear characteristics and damage inflicted on the system. We assume furthermore that the system failure rate and the expected cost of a repair/replacement at any point of time are adapted to this information. At time t = 0 a new system is installed. At a stopping time T, based on the information about the condition of the system, the system is replaced by a new and identical one, and the process is repeated. Failures that occur before replacement are rectified through minimal repair. We assume that a minimal repair changes neither the age of the system nor the information about the condition of the system. The problem is to find a T which minimizes the total expected discounted cost. Under appropriate conditions an optimal T is found. Some generalizations and special cases are given.