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Scientists often propose hypotheses based on patterns seen in data. However, if a scientist tests a hypothesis using the same data that suggested the hypothesis, then that scientist has violated a rule of science. The rule is: test hypotheses with independent data. This rule may sound so obvious as to be hardly worth mentioning. In fact, this mistake occurs frequently, especially when analyzing large data sets. Among the many pitfalls in statistics, screening is particularly serious. Screening is the process of evaluating a property for a large number of samples and then selecting samples in which that property is extreme. Screening is closely related to data fishing, data dredging, or data snooping. After a sample has been selected through screening, classical hypothesis tests exhibit selection bias. Quantifying the effect of screening often reveals that it creates biases that are substantially larger than one might guess. This chapter explains the concept of screening and illustrates it through examples from selecting predictors, interpreting correlation maps, and identifying change points.
Let
$X_1, X_2,\dots$
be a short-memory linear process of random variables. For
$1\leq q<2$
, let
${\mathcal{F}}$
be a bounded set of real-valued functions on [0, 1] with finite q-variation. It is proved that
$\{n^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^nX_i\,f(i/n)\colon f\in{\mathcal{F}}\}$
converges in outer distribution in the Banach space of bounded functions on
${\mathcal{F}}$
as
$n\to\infty$
. Several applications to a regression model and a multiple change point model are given.
Suppose a Poisson process is observed on the unit interval. The scan statistic is defined as the maximum number of events observed as a window of fixed width is moved across the interval, and the distribution under homogeneity has been widely studied. Frequently, we may not wish to specify the window width in advance but to consider scan statistics with varying window widths. We propose a modification of the scan statistic based on a likelihood ratio criterion. This leads to a boundary-crossing problem for a two-dimensional random field, which we approximate using a large-deviation scaling under homogeneity. Similar results are obtained for Poisson processes observed in two dimensions. Numerical computations and simulations are used to illustrate the accuracy of the approximations.
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