The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.

We describe and analyse an outbreak of measles that affected Belgium early 2017. In total, 289 cases were reported, mostly (53%) in people 15 years or older. For 133 (46%) vaccination status was unknown and a further 117 (41%) were not vaccinated. According to national guidelines, 83 of the unvaccinated cases (29% of total cases) should have received minimum one dose of vaccine, but did not. One in five cases (21%) did not present with the classical triad of fever, rash and any of coryza, conjunctivitis or cough. Rash was the most sensitive symptom, being absent in only six cases. A large proportion of cases (125/289, 43%) required hospitalisation. In hospitalised patients, the most commonly observed complications were hepatic disorders (present in 58/125 hospitalised patients, 46%). Thirty-six of the cases (12%) were in healthcare workers and nosocomial spread contributed importantly to the outbreak. Older age at presentation, altered clinical presentations and presence of complications like hepatitis can delay the correct diagnosis of measles. Clinicians should maintain a high index of suspicion in any individual presenting with rash. If the elimination target is to be reached, catch-up vaccination campaigns should be intensified and target young adults and health care workers.

Campylobacteriosis is the most common notifiable disease in New Zealand. While the risk of campylobacteriosis has been found to be strongly associated with the consumption of undercooked poultry, other risk factors include rainwater-sourced drinking water, contact with animals and consumption of raw dairy products. Despite this, there has been little investigation of raw milk as a risk factor for campylobacteriosis. Recent increases in demand for untreated or ‘raw’ milk have also raised concerns that this exposure may become a more important source of disease in the future. This study describes the cases of notified campylobacteriosis from a sentinel surveillance site. Previously collected data from notified cases of raw milk-associated campylobacteriosis were examined and compared with campylobacteriosis cases who did not report raw milk consumption. Raw milk campylobacteriosis cases differed from non-raw milk cases on comparison of age and occupation demographics, with raw milk cases more likely to be younger and categorised as children or students for occupation. Raw milk cases were more likely to be associated with outbreaks than non-raw milk cases. Study-suggested motivations for raw milk consumption (health reasons, natural product, produced on farm, inexpensive or to support locals) were not strongly supported by cases. More information about the raw milk consumption habits of New Zealanders would be helpful to better understand the risks of this disease, especially with respect to increased disease risk observed in younger people. Further discussion with raw milk consumers around their motivations may also be useful to find common ground between public health concerns and consumer preferences as efforts continue to manage this ongoing public health issue.

The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of increasing incidence of Spotted Fever Group rickettsioses (SFGR) in Illinois, with a specific focus on weather variables. We analysed cases of SFGR reported to the Illinois Department of Public Health from 2004 to 2013. Surveillance definitions changed in 2008 and 2010, but those changes alone did not account for observed spikes in incidence in 2008, 2012 and 2013. A total of 590 cases of SFGR occurred, with the majority in the southernmost portion of the state. Only 3·4% of the reported cases were considered confirmed under the case definition. Increased mean winter temperature (IRR 1·32, CI 1·25–1·40) and increased precipitation (IRR 1·08, CI 1·04–1·11) were each associated with increased incidence of SFGR. Our findings show that weather appears to play a significant role in explaining the increasing annual incidence of SFGR in Illinois.

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne virus endemic to Australia. The disease, marked by arthritis, myalgia and rash, has a complex epidemiology involving several mosquito species and wildlife reservoirs. Outbreak years coincide with climatic conditions conducive to mosquito population growth. We developed regression models for human RRV notifications in the Mildura Local Government Area, Victoria, Australia with the objective of increasing understanding of the relationships in this complex system, providing trigger points for intervention and developing a forecast model. Surveillance, climatic, environmental and entomological data for the period July 2000–June 2011 were used for model training then forecasts were validated for July 2011–June 2015. Rainfall and vapour pressure were the key factors for forecasting RRV notifications. Validation of models showed they predicted RRV counts with an accuracy of 81%. Two major RRV mosquito vectors (Culex annulirostris and Aedes camptorhynchus) were important in the final estimation model at proximal lags. The findings of this analysis advance understanding of the drivers of RRV in temperate climatic zones and the models will inform public health agencies of periods of increased risk.

Meningococcal disease is a rare, rapidly progressing condition which may be difficult to diagnose, disproportionally affects children, and has high morbidity and mortality. Accurate incidence estimates are needed to monitor the effectiveness of vaccination and treatment. We used linked notification, hospital, mortality and birth data for all children of an Australian state (2000–2007) to estimate the incidence of meningococcal disease. A total of 595 cases were notified, 684 cases had a hospital diagnosis, and 26 cases died from meningococcal disease. All deaths were notified, but only 68% (466/684) of hospitalized cases. Of non-notified hospitalized cases with more than one clinical admission, most (90%, 103/114) did not have meningococcal disease recorded as their final diagnosis, consistent with initial ‘false-positive’ hospital meningococcal disease diagnosis. After adjusting for false-positive rates in hospital data, capture–recapture estimation suggested that up to four cases of meningococcal disease may not have been captured in either notification or hospital records. The estimated incidence of meningococcal disease in NSW-born and -resident children aged 0–14 years was 5·1–5·4 cases/100 000 child-years at risk, comparable to international estimates using similar methods, but lower than estimates based on hospital data.

Notification of infectious disease is essential for prompt public health action and epidemiological analysis. The aim of this study was to compare national hospitalization data to national notification data in order to assess if there was significant under-reporting of hospitalized notifiable infectious diseases in recent years in Ireland. All in-patient discharges from public hospitals in the Republic of Ireland from 2006 to 2011 with a principal diagnosis of a notifiable disease were compared with national notification data. It was found that only a potential 1·8% of extra notifications could have arisen due to these hospitalization events and would represent a tenfold reduction on a previous estimate of under-reporting in the Irish context. Viral meningitis, viral encephalitis, bacterial meningitis not otherwise specified and malaria were the most common diseases for which there were more hospitalizations than notifications reported. The results of this study support the conclusion that the reduction in under-reporting can mainly be accounted for by the introduction of laboratories as notifiers in conjunction with the roll out of the Computerized Infectious Disease Reporting system (CIDR). However, for the diseases highlighted, the notification data underestimates the true burden of disease and this has implications for understanding the epidemiology of these diseases.

An outbreak of Microsporum canis infection affected 12 persons in two elementary schools over a period of 48 days in 2012 in Slovenia. Epidemiological, microbiological, and animal investigations were conducted. We defined cases as pupils or employees with skin lesions and confirmed or probable M. canis infection, attending one of the implicated elementary schools. Two clusters of six primary and six secondary cases were included in an unmatched case-control study. Contact with an adopted stray kitten at a birthday party was identified as the most probable source of infection. Secondary cases were more likely to have participated in gymnastic classes with a primary case than controls and were also more likely to have touched an infected child. Prompt communication and implementation of adequate control measures after the primary cases occurred would have prevented the secondary cases in another school.

Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more ‘risky’ option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.

We analysed data on laboratory or epidemiologically confirmed cases (n = 856 539) and on outbreaks (n = 31 644) notified during week 31 (2001) to week 30 (2009), and performed molecular typing of specimens from 665 outbreaks. We aimed at identifying demographic and molecular characteristics to inform on potential additional approaches to prevent disease spread in the population. The mean incidence by norovirus season (week 31 in one year to week 30 in the following year) was 130 (range 19–300) cases/100 000 population and was highest in persons aged <5 years (430/100 000) and ⩾75 years (593/100 000). The proportion hospitalized in community-acquired cases was 8–19% per season. The mean norovirus-associated mortality was 0·05/100 000 per season and 0·5/100 000 in the ⩾75 years age group. Most outbreaks with known setting (75%) occurred in hospitals (32%), nursing homes (28%), households (24%) and childcare facilities (10%). GII strains dominated in the outbreak specimens. GII.4 strains were found in 82% of nursing home outbreaks, 85% of hospital outbreaks, and 33% of childcare facility and school outbreaks. Cases in younger individuals were notified earlier during the season than adult cases, and outbreaks in childcare facilities and schools preceded those in nursing/residential homes, hospitals and private households. We suggest future studies to investigate more closely potential transmission patterns between children and adults.

Although immediate notification of a case is crucial for epidemic control, clinicians may delay notification due to uncertainties in diagnosis, reflecting a trade-off between timeliness and the accuracy of surveillance. We assessed this trade-off for four epidemic-prone diseases that require immediate notification of suspected cases: shigellosis, typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever, and cholera in the Korean National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System data for 2001–2007. Timeliness was measured as the time to registration (TR), being the time interval from symptom onset to notification by the clinician to the local public health centre. We introduced a new index, ‘time-accuracy trade-off ratio’ to indicate time saved by clinical vs. laboratory-based notifications. Clinical notifications comprised 34·4% of total notifications, and these showed a shorter median TR than laboratory-based notifications (1–4 days). The trade-off ratio was greatest for shigellosis (3·3 days), and smallest for typhoid fever (0·6 days). A higher trade-off ratio provides stronger evidence for clinical notification without waiting for laboratory confirmation.

With the aim of minimizing adverse health outcomes and reducing the risk of outbreaks, we offered one dose of MMR vaccine to children known to be incompletely immunized at the time of teenage booster vaccination in secondary schools in Swindon in 2011. The Child Health Department database was queried to identify Year 10 children who had had zero or one dose of MMR vaccine previously. Of the 316 children offered vaccination, 60 received a first dose and 87 received a second dose of MMR vaccine. Fourteen children had two documented doses in the past and two had contraindications to the vaccine. Overall uptake of two doses of MMR vaccine increased from 86·3% to 90·6%. The valuable uptake achieved demonstrates that an opportunistic offer of MMR vaccine for unimmunized children at schools is feasible and beneficial. MMR vaccine should be offered routinely to unimmunized children at the time of school vaccination programmes, especially in areas with sub-optimal coverage.

In the summer of 2009, an outbreak of verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) was identified in visitors to a large petting farm in South East England. The peak attack rate was 6/1000 visitors, and highest in those aged <2 years (16/1000). We conducted a case-control study with associated microbiological investigations, on human, animal and environmental samples. We identified 93 cases; 65 primary, 13 secondary and 15 asymptomatic. Cases were more likely to have visited a specific barn, stayed for prolonged periods and be infrequent farm visitors. The causative organism was identified as VTEC O157 PT21/28 with the same VNTR profile as that isolated in faecal specimens from farm animals and the physical environment, mostly in the same barn. Contact with farm livestock, especially ruminants, should be urgently reviewed at the earliest suspicion of a farm-related VTEC O157 outbreak and appropriate risk management procedures implemented without delay.

Despite recent improvements, New Zealand still has one of the highest per-capita incidence rates of campylobacteriosis in the world. To reduce the incidence, a thorough understanding of the epidemiology of infection is needed. This retrospective analysis of 36 000 notified human cases during a high-risk period between 2001 and 2007 explored the spatial and temporal determinants of Campylobacter notifications at a fine spatial scale in order to improve understanding of the complex epidemiology. Social deprivation was associated with a decreased risk of notification, whereas urban residence was associated with an increased risk. However, for young children rural residence was a risk factor. High dairy cattle density was associated with an increased risk of notification in two of the three regions investigated. Campylobacter notification patterns exhibit large temporal variations; however, few factors were associated with periods of increased risk, in particular temperature did not appear to drive the seasonality in campylobacteriosis.

The state of Queensland has the highest incidence of Q fever in Australia. In recent years, there has been an increase in human cases where no contacts with the typical reservoir animals or occupations were reported. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of Coxiella burnetii in Australian native animals and introduced animals in northern and southeastern Queensland. Australian native marsupials sampled included the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) and common northern bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus). Introduced species sampled included dingoes (Canis lupus dingo), cats (Felis catus), foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and pigs (Sus scrofa). Serum samples were tested by ELISA for both phase II and phase I antigens of the organism using an Australian isolate. The serological evidence of C. burnetii infection demonstrated in these species has public health implications due to their increasing movement into residential areas in regional Queensland. This study is the first known investigation of C. burnetii seroprevalence in these species in northern Queensland.

The disease pyramid of under-ascertainment for surveillance of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in New Zealand has been estimated using 2005–2007 data on notifiable diseases, a community telephone survey, and a survey of diagnostic laboratories. For each notified case of AGI there were an estimated 222 cases in the community, about 49 of which visited a general practitioner. Faecal samples were requested from about 15 of these cases, and 13 samples were provided. Of the faecal samples, pathogens were detected in about three cases. These ratios are similar to those reported in other developed countries, and provide baseline measurements of the AGI burden in the New Zealand community.