In the context of the ongoing Russian invasion and the uncertainties surrounding the potential return migration of millions of displaced Ukrainians, this study explores the future of (return) migration through an innovative and inclusive participatory foresight approach, engaging 20 displaced Ukrainians residing in Valencia, Spain, from May to December 2023. The foresight process included workshops, discussions via online messaging groups, interviews, participatory observations, and culminated in an open art exhibition. Through this process, we conducted a collective horizon scanning, identifying weak signals and emerging trends, followed by an examination of critical uncertainties, which led to the development of four distinct scenarios: Exhaustion Return, Energetic Return, Virtual Return, and Disconnection. The insights derived from this foresight exercise hold practical relevance for both Ukrainian and EU migration policymakers, emphasizing the importance of lived experiences in shaping anticipatory migration policies. This study also offers theoretical contributions by applying participatory foresight to the field of return migration, challenging established knowledge paradigms, and fostering a more inclusive and nuanced understanding of migration dynamics and their broader implications.

Mesoamerica is the world's third largest biodiversity hotspot and has c. 4,000 wildlife species protected under CITES. Despite the high biodiversity in the region, there is limited global attention, data and funding for conservation. The continued exploitation of wildlife species for the trade requires a more proactive approach to address emerging trends, and low-cost and effective solutions to prevent species decline. Over a 5-month period in 2017, we used expert-driven horizon scanning, facilitated online, to identify emerging trends of the illegal wildlife trade in Mesoamerica. We found that the main emerging trends included digital and technological advancements, greater regional access to the global community, developments in trafficking techniques and growing demand for certain species. Our findings demonstrate that horizon scanning can be used as a tool for identifying emerging trends of illegal wildlife trade in data-poor contexts. We recommend that horizon scanning is used regularly for systematic monitoring of trends and to prioritize resources for immediate and emerging trends in illegal wildlife trade.

Objectives: The aim of this study is to report on the experiences, benefits, and challenges of patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) from a publicly funded early awareness and alert (EAA) system in the United Kingdom.

Methods: Using email, telephone, a Web site portal, Twitter and focus groups, patients and the public were involved and engaged in the recognized stages of an EAA system: identification, filtration, prioritization, early assessment, and dissemination.

Results: Approaches for PPIE were successfully integrated into all aspects of the National Institute for Health Research Horizon Scanning Research and Intelligence Centre's EAA system. Input into identification activities was not as beneficial as involvement in prioritization and early assessment. Patients gave useful insight into the Centre's Web site and engaging patients using Twitter has enabled the Centre to disseminate outputs to a wider audience.

Conclusions: EAA systems should consider involving and engaging with patients and the public in identification, prioritization, and assessment of emerging health technologies where practicable. Further research is required to examine the value and impact of PPIE in EAA activities and in the early development of health technologies.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to predict the potential impact of the introduction of implantation of polyurethane scaffold for the treatment of partial meniscal lesions in the South Korean healthcare system.

Methods: The horizon scanning process was used to select a target technology and assess its potential impacts on patients and the Korean healthcare system. We identified and filtered research-phase health technologies that are not listed yet in Korean, but appear promising. After a process of prioritization, we chose the implantation of polyurethane scaffolds as a target technology. Then, through the procedures of assessment and peer review, we analyzed current evidence and its predicted potential impacts.

Results: There were eight studies included in the review: one prospective cohort and seven case-series studies. Six revealed significant improvements in function and pain relief. Of the six studies, which reported safety endpoints, four stated no major postoperative complications related to scaffold, and two reported adverse events and serious adverse events such as pain, joint swelling, et cetera. We also included the potential impact of this technology based on the experts’ consultation. They all agreed that it would satisfy the diverse needs of patients and fulfill clinical needs. However, the majority of related clinical studies were based on short-term follow-up observations without any validation process involving comparison with control groups.

Conclusions: Through a horizon scanning activity, we found that the implantation of polyurethane scaffolds is a promising technology to resolve articular cartilage defects; however, long-term evidence with comparison groups for safety and effectiveness is required.

Objectives: The EuroScan International Network is a global network of publicly funded early awareness and alert (EAA) systems for health technologies. We describe the EuroScan member agency systems and methods, and highlight the potential for increased collaboration.

Methods: EuroScan members completed postal questionnaires supplemented with telephone interviews in 2012 to elicit additional information and check equivalence of responses. Information was updated between March and May 2013.

Results: Fifteen of the seventeen member agencies responded. The principal purpose of agencies is to inform decisions on coverage or reimbursement of health services and decisions on undertaking secondary research. The main users of information are national governments; health professionals; health services purchasers, commissioners, and decision makers; and healthcare providers. Most EuroScan agencies are small with almost half having fewer than two whole time equivalent staff. Ten agencies use both active and passive identification approaches, four use only active approaches. Most start identification in the experimental or investigational stages of the technology life cycle. All agencies assessed technologies when they are between the investigational and established, but under diffusion stages. Barriers to collaboration revolve around different system aims, purposes, and requirements; a lack of staff, finance, or opportunity; language differences; and restrictions on dissemination.

Conclusions: Although many barriers to collaboration were identified, the majority of agencies were supportive of increased collaboration either involving the whole EuroScan Network or between individual agencies. Despite differences in the detailed identification processes, members thought that this was the most feasible phase to develop additional collaboration.

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs − using transparent and repeatable methods − based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.

Background and Objectives: Horizon scanning systems need to handle a wide range of sources to identify new or emerging health technologies. The objective of this study is to develop a validated Medline bibliographic search strategy (PubMed search engine) to systematically identify new or emerging health technologies.

Methods: The proposed Medline search strategy combines free text terms commonly used in article titles to denote innovation within index terms that make reference to the specific fields of interest. Efficacy was assessed by running the search over a period of 1 year (2009) and analyzing its retrieval performance (number and characteristics). For comparison purposes, all article abstracts published during 2009 in six preselected key research journals and eight high impact surgery journals were scanned. Sensitivity was defined as the proportion of relevant new or emerging technologies published in key journals that would be identified in the search strategy within the first 2 years of publication.

Results: The search yielded 6,228 abstracts of potentially new or emerging technologies. Of these, 459 were classified as new or emerging (383 truly new or emerging and 76 new indications). The scanning of 12,061 journal abstracts identified 35 relevant new or emerging technologies. Of these, twenty-nine were located within the Medline search strategy during the first 2 years of publication (sensitivity = 83 percent).

Conclusions: The current search strategy, validated against key journals, has demonstrated to be effective for horizon scanning. Even though it can require adaptations depending on the scope of the horizon scanning system, it could serve to simplify and standardize scanning processes.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to establish a national Early Awareness and Alert (EAA) system for the identification and assessment of new and emerging health technologies in Italy.

Methods: In 2008, Agenas, a public body supporting Regions and the Ministry of Health (MoH) in health services research, started a project named COTE (Observatory of New and Emerging Health Technologies) with the ultimate aim of implementing a national EAA system. The COTE project involved all stakeholders (MoH, Regions, Industry, Universities, technical government bodies, and Scientific Societies), in defining the key characteristics and methods of the EAA system. Agreement with stakeholders was reached using three separate workshops.

Results: During the workshops, participants shared and agreed methods for identification of new and emerging health technologies, prioritization, and assessment. The structure of the Horizon Scanning (HS) reports was discussed and defined. The main channels for dissemination of outputs were identified as the EuroScan database, and the stakeholders’ Web portals. During the final workshop, Agenas presented the first three HS reports produced at national level and proposed the establishment of a permanent national EAA system.

Conclusions: The COTE Project created the basis for a permanent national EAA system in Italy. An infrastructure to enable the stakeholders network to grow was created, methods to submit new and emerging health technologies for possible evaluation were established, methods for assessment of the technologies selected were defined, and the stakeholders involvement was delineated (in the identification, assessment, and dissemination stages).

Background: Throughout the world, decision makers face the need to plan on the basis of uncertainty. Prospective updates on future trends of medical technology usage are tools to improve national health status. In Israel, this challenge is met by several steps taken to promote insight into the realm of emerging technologies. Israel's unique horizon strategy refers to three time spans: the immediate to short-term (for the coming year) updating the National List of Health Services (NLHS) and quarterly scanning; the medium-term (3 years to a decade) revitalizing hospital devices and infrastructure; and long-term planning (over a decade), such as the “Health Israel 2020 Project”.

Methods: A description of the Israeli setup of different time spans and tiers.

Results: The matrix of players, loci, interests, population groups, and incentives creates a complex situation and the Ministry of Health has to regulate the different suppliers and tiers of insurance (obligatory, supplementary, and private), balancing need, equity, and cost containment in preparing for future health care. However, preparedness is not a sterile laboratory and is pervaded by numerous dilemmas and the search for adequate evidence for new less mature technologies is an on-going challenge.

Conclusion: Bridging the forecasting chasm for the future requires analyzing needs, reinforcing evidence and seeing “around the corner” when synergizing between all the “actors” in the national arena. Expert consultation and international cooperation with similar horizon organizations can assist in paving the way for more successful planning efforts for future medical technology implementation.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the English National Horizon Scanning Centre (NHSC) in identifying and filtering pharmaceutical developments using end user and international collaborator databases of emerging technologies as proxies for new drugs of likely significance to health services and/or patients.

Methods: We used the NHSC information system and the list of National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) technology appraisals to estimate the false positive rate for NHSC identification, filtration, and reporting. We assessed the sensitivity of NHSC identification and filtration of pharmaceuticals for NICE technology appraisals from 1999 to the end of December 2010, and for pharmaceuticals entered into the EuroScan International Network database.

Results: We estimate that overall NHSC identification, filtration and reporting had a positive predictive value of 0.39 (95 percent CI, 0.36 to 0.43) and a false positive rate of 60 percent. Using NICE appraisals and EuroScan's database as proxies for pharmaceuticals of significance, we estimate the NHSC sensitivity over the 10-year period at 0.92 (95 percent CI, 0.89 to 0.95) and 0.89 (95 percent CI, 0.82 to 0.96) respectively.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that the NHSC has performed well in terms of sensitivity over the past decade, but that the false positive rate of 60 percent may indicate that the filtration criteria for pharmaceuticals could be tightened for increased efficiency. Future evaluations of EAA systems should include an element of external review and explore the level of accuracy acceptable to funders and customers of such systems.

Objectives: Early awareness and alert (EAA) activities are increasingly recognized to be an important component of the health technology assessment (HTA) process. Sharing information on methods used in this discipline is vital to ensure the development of sustainable systems. The objectives of this study is to outline the approach taken to share the different methods that members of the EuroScan International Network use by producing a methods toolkit; and to provide an overview of the similarities and differences in methods adopted by EAA systems.

Methods: A Delphi technique was used to develop the methods toolkit. Structured questionnaires were used to identify the sources used in the identification of emerging technologies and to determine the methods used by agencies to carry out EAA activities.

Results: A methods toolkit incorporating guidance on all of the stages described by EuroScan members was produced. The toolkit and an accompanying checklist presents users with different methods that can be adopted to suit their needs. The comparative analysis demonstrates that different methods are being used by EAA systems dependent on resources available and customer requirements. Differences in identification, filtration, prioritization, and assessment are apparent along with the role of collaborators in these processes.

Conclusions: The methods used by EAA systems are not homogeneous resulting in a toolkit constructed on the basis of “one size doesn't fit all.” Methods in this discipline are developing continually to accommodate changes in health systems and the HTA world. Differences between agencies and the sharing of ideas and experiences enable EAA agencies to adapt to these developments.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to briefly describe the current state of early awareness and alert (EAA) activities and systems in four Latin-American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico).

Methods: Key informants were selected and completed an open questionnaire that included the following domains: current state of EAA activities and systems in each country, potential role for EAA systems in the health system, and future EAA projects that are currently being considered.

Results: In all four countries, health technology assessment (HTA) processes are used to prioritize the use of health resources, albeit at varying degrees and with different mechanisms and methodologies. EAA activities are still limited and there are virtually no institutions or units with specific functions explicitly devoted to EAA activity. However, most countries have developed some initial forms of EAA systems. Being in its initial stages there is no clear differentiation between these early awareness activities and other HTA functions, and no specific methodologies or processes are used to anticipate the emergence of new technologies. Consequently, early evaluation of technologies generally occurs in a reactive manner, after they have been introduced in the market and under the pressure of different stakeholders.

Conclusions: There is growing awareness that the early identification and assessment of emerging technologies should be an integral part of HTA and the decision-making process. Many initiatives are currently focusing on building partnerships between the various regulatory bodies involved in the incorporation of technologies at national levels. It is reasonable to foresee that EAA activities will continue to develop and expand in the region.

Objectives: There is a growing need for efficient procedures for identification of emerging technologies by horizon scanning systems. We demonstrate the value of best-worst scaling (BWS) in exploring clinicians’ views on emerging technologies that will impact outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the next 5 to 10 years.

Methods: Clinicians in Asia, Europe, and the United States were surveyed and their views about eleven emerging technologies relevant to HCC were explored using BWS (case 1). This involved systematically presenting respondents with subsets of five technologies and asking them to identify those that will have the most and least impact on HCC within 5 to 10 years. Statistical analysis was based on sequential best-worst and analyzed using conditional logistic regression.

Results: A total of 120 clinicians uniformly distributed across ten countries completed the survey (37 percent response rate). Respondents were predominately hepatologist (41 percent) who focused on HCC (65 percent) and had national influence in this field (39 percent). Respondents viewed molecular targeted therapy (p < .001) and early detection of HCC (p < .001) as having most potential, while improved surgical techniques (p < .001) and biopsy free HCC diagnostics (p < .001) were viewed upon negatively.

Conclusions: We demonstrate that BWS could be an important research tool to facilitate horizon scanning and HTA more broadly. Our research demonstrates the value of including clinicians’ preferences as a source of data in horizon scanning, but such methods could be used to incorporate the opinions of a broad array of stakeholders, including those in advocacy and public policy.

There is an increased appreciation of the need for horizon scanning: the identification and assessment of issues that could be serious in the future but have currently attracted little attention. However, a process is lacking to identify appropriate responses by policy makers and practitioners. We thus suggest a process and trial its applicability. Twelve environmental conservation organizations assessed each of 15 previously identified horizon scanning issues for their impact upon their organization and the urgency with which they should consider the issue. They also identified triggers that would result in changes in their scoring of the likely urgency and impact of the issues. This process enables organizations to identify priority issues, identify issues they can ignore until there are further developments, benchmark priorities across organizations and identify cross-organizational priorities that warrant further attention, so providing an agenda for collation of evidence, research and policy development. In this trial the review of responses by other organizations resulted in the upgrading of response by a substantial proportion of organizations for eight of the 15 issues examined. We suggest this approach, with the novel components of collaborative assessment and identification of triggers, could be adopted widely, both within conservation organizations and across a wider range of policy issues.