Geomagnetic storms can be modeled as stochastic processes with log-normal probability distribution function over their minimum Dst index value measured during the main phase of each event. Considering a time series of geomagnetic storm events between 1957 and 2019 we have analyzed the probability of occurrence of small, moderate, strong and extreme events. The data were separated according to solar cycle (SC) and solar cycle phases and fitted through maximum likelihood method in order to compare rates of occurrence of the last Solar Cycle (SC24) with previous ones. Our results show that for Dst < – 100 nT events in SC24 are similar to those in SC20, obtaining ⁓42 vs 21 median rate storms per cycle with 95% confidence intervals using Bootstrap Method. As SC24 has been the least active solar cycle in over 200 years, we conclude that this method tends to overestimate geomagnetic storms occurrence rates even for small events.

In this paper we will present our investigations on the characteristics of geomagnetic storms deduced from direct and proxy observations for the years 1601–2016 AD. We show that we could infer epoch of reversal of solar polar magnetic fields from geomagnetic data. Such an inference is done back to the 18th century using geomagnetic and Aurora observations. We could also infer secular changes in the intensity of geomagnetic storms for the past 415 years.

Extreme solar-terrestrial events are those in which very energetic solar ejections hit the earth?s magnetosphere, causing intense energization of the earth?s ring current. Statistically, their occurrence is approximately once per Gleissberg solar cycle (70-100yrs). The solar transient occurred on July, 23rd (2012) was potentially one of such extreme events. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME), however, was not ejected towards the earth. Instead, it hit the STEREO A spacecraft, located 120 degrees away from the Sun-Earth line. Estimates of the geoeffectiveness of such a CME point to a scenario of extreme Space Weather conditions. In terms of the ring current energization, as measured by the Disturbance Storm-Time index (Dst), had this CME hit the Earth, it would have caused the strongest geomagnetic storm in space era.

We studied three interplanetary coronal mass ejections associated with solar eruptive filaments. Filament plasma remnants embedded in these structures were identified using plasma, magnetic and compositional signatures. These features when impacted the Earth's terrestrial magnetosphere - ionosphere system, resulted in geomagnetic storms. During the main phase of associated storms, along with high density plasma structures, polarity reversals in the Y-component (dawn-to-dusk) of the interplanetary electric field seem to trigger major auroral substorms with concomitant changes in the polar ionospheric electric field. Here, we examine the cases where plasma dynamics and magnetic structuring in the presence of the prompt penetration of the electric field into the equatorial ionosphere affected the space weather while highlighting the complex geomagnetic storm-substorm relationship.

On 5 January 2005, SoHO/LASCO observed two CMEs associated with eruptive filaments with different initial velocities and acceleration. The second CME accelerates much faster than the previous and the resulting interaction has been revealed in in-situ spacecraft measurements by the presence of magnetic holes at the border of the two distinct magnetic clouds. At their interface region, these magnetic clouds have embedded filament plasma that shows complex magnetic structures with a distinct magnetic flux rope configuration; these have been modeled by the Grad - Shafranov reconstruction technique. The geomagnetic consequences of these structures have been associated with substorms in recovery phase of a storm and detailed analysis is presented in Sharma et al. (2013). In the present paper, we highlight the comparison of shape and extent of two filament plasma remnants in magnetic clouds as revealed by three - dimensional (3D) reconstruction and analysis from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) data. The results provide an overview of the two eruptive filaments on 5 January 2005 and their interplanetary propagation.