Investigations at the site of Huacas de Moche—also referred to as Huacas del Sol and de la Luna—on the north coast of Peru show a continuous occupational sequence from around AD 100 to 1500. The longest occupation corresponds to the Moche culture from around AD 100 to 850. Based on available archaeological evidence, this article examines the impact of an El Niño-like event in AD 600 on the history of Huacas de Moche. Widely held hypotheses assumed that this kind of climatic event caused the abandonment of the site; however, such explanations do not fit the current data. After almost three decades of research, archaeological evidence indicates that after the El Niño-like phenomenon of AD 600, the Old Temple of Huaca de la Luna was closed down, and the New Temple was built toward the east of the previous one, on the same slope of Cerro Blanco. Furthermore, on the opposite side of the site, the building called Huaca del Sol experienced its last and greatest architectural expansion, becoming a large-scale palace. These new lines of evidence lead us to reassess the effect that the El Niño-like phenomenon of AD 600 had on the development of the Moche culture at the site.

Radiocarbon ages on mollusk shells, which account for about half of the more than 8,000 dates from cultural deposits on the west coast of North America, need to be corrected for the local marine reservoir effect (ΔR) to yield true ages. Assays on “prebomb” shells show that ΔR increases poleward, echoing the age gradient in offshore waters. The meridional gradient in ΔR is not appreciably affected by the transition either from an upwelling regime to a downwelling regime north of 40°N–45°N or from a winter maximum-high alkalinity river discharge pattern to a summer maximum-low alkalinity pattern at the same latitude, probably because these changes are offset by increasing storminess and tidal energy in coastal areas. Mesoscale variations in ΔR along this gradient are attributable to contrasts in shore morphology and exposure. Data from 123 shell-wood pairs reveal similar patterns of temporal variation in ΔR in the late Holocene in the coastal ecoregions. The characteristic temporal pattern echoes phases of variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The high degree of variability in ΔR argues against the indiscriminate application of regionally uniform or trans-Holocene ΔR values and demands improvements in spatiotemporal resolution if shell is used to date cultural deposits.

Resilient cropping systems are required to achieve food security in the presence of climate change, and so several long-term conservation agriculture (CA) trials have been established in southern Africa – one of them at the Chitedze Agriculture Research Station in Malawi in 2007. The present study focused on a longitudinal analysis of 10 years of data from the trial to better understand the joint effects of variations between the seasons and particular contrasts among treatments on yield of maize. Of further interest was the variability of treatment responses in time and space and the implications for design of future trials with adequate statistical power. The analysis shows treatment differences of the mean effect which vary according to cropping season. There was a strong treatment effect between rotational treatments and other treatments and a weak effect between intercropping and monocropping. There was no evidence for an overall advantage of systems where residues are retained (in combination with direct seeding or planting basins) over conventional management with respect to maize yield. A season effect was evident although the strong benefit of rotation in El Niño season was also reduced, highlighting the strong interaction between treatment and climatic conditions. The power analysis shows that treatment effects of practically significant magnitude may be unlikely to be detected with just four replicates, as at Chitedze, under either a simple randomised control trial or a factorial experiment. Given logistical and financial constraints, it is important to design trials with fewer treatments but more replicates to gain enough statistical power and to pay attention to the selection of treatments to given an informative outcome.

Differences in the decadal trend in the winter surface temperature in the northern and southern Antarctic Peninsula have been analysed. Time series from the two stations Esperanza and Faraday/Vernadsky since the early 1950s are used. The two time series are strongly correlated only during the 1980s and 1990s when their variability and trends are associated with both the Niño-4 region and Southern Annular Mode impacts. The winter cooling at the Faraday/Vernadsky station contrasts with the winter warming at the Esperanza station during the period of 2006–17. The different temperature trends are accompanied by weak correlations between the temperatures at these two stations. Linearly congruent components of the station temperature trends in 2006–17 indicate a dominant contribution of Southern Annular Mode (tropical sea surface temperature anomalies) to warming (cooling) in the northern (southern) Peninsula. Distinctive impacts of climate modes are observed in combination with the recent deepening of the negative sea-level pressure anomaly to the west of the peninsula and the related change in the zonal and meridional wind components. These factors apparently contribute to the occurrence of the boundary that crosses the peninsula and divides it into sub-regions with warming and cooling.

Satellite imagery is used to show that the world's second largest emperor penguin colony, at Halley Bay, has suffered three years of almost total breeding failure. Although, like all emperor colonies, there has been large inter-annual variability in the breeding success at this site, the prolonged period of failure is unprecedented in the historical record. The observed events followed the early breakup of the fast ice in the ice creeks that the birds habitually used for breeding. The initial breakup was associated with a particularly stormy period in September 2015, which corresponded with the strongest El Niño in over 60 years, strong winds, and a record low sea-ice year locally. Conditions have not recovered in the two years since. Meanwhile, during the same three-year period, the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony, 55 km to the south, has seen a more than tenfold increase in penguin numbers. The authors associate this with immigration from the birds previously breeding at Halley Bay. Studying this ‘tale of two cities’ provides valuable information relevant to modelling penguin movement under future climate change scenarios.

Dengue is a widespread vector-borne disease believed to affect between 100 and 390 million people every year. The interaction between vector, host and pathogen is influenced by various climatic factors and the relationship between dengue and climatic conditions has been poorly explored in India. This study explores the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and dengue cases in India. Additionally, distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the delayed effects of climatic factors on dengue cases. The weekly dengue cases reported by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) over India during the period 2010–2017 were analysed. The study shows that dengue cases usually follow a seasonal pattern, with most cases reported in August and September. Both temperature and rainfall were positively associated with the number of dengue cases. The precipitation shows the higher transmission risk of dengue was observed between 8 and 15 weeks of lag. The highest relative risk (RR) of dengue was observed at 60 mm rainfall with a 12-week lag period when compared with 40 and 80 mm rainfall. The RR of dengue tends to increase with increasing mean temperature above 24 °C. The largest transmission risk of dengue was observed at 30 °C with a 0–3 weeks of lag. Similarly, the transmission risk increases more than twofold when the minimum temperature reaches 26 °C with a 2-week lag period. The dengue cases and El Niño were positively correlated with a 3–6 months lag period. The significant correlation observed between the IOD and dengue cases was shown for a 0–2 months lag period.

Boring sponges are an important component of bioeroder assemblages in tropical coral reefs. They are considered as a potential threat for coral reef health, and the increase of dead corals is expected to promote their abundance. The relationship between the availability of dead coral substrata and the development of boring sponge assemblages was evaluated during El Niño 2015–16 at five reefs from Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, Mexico. Environment and substrate quality were assessed. Overall, environment conditions remained normal in relation to previous studies in the area. Only water temperature showed unusually high records at all sites and coincided with bleaching and mortality of corals, possibly caused by the effects of the El Niño event. Abundance of boring sponges in dead corals and coral rubble was lower than during previous studies. Although sponge abundance was not directly related to cover of both dead corals and coral rubble, cover of dead corals showed a high correlation with the variation in the structure of sponge assemblages across sites. Cliona vermifera dominated sponge assemblages at all sites, and its abundance was high under conditions of high cover of live corals and low cover of bleached corals. Since overall sponge abundance responded in a similar way, these results suggest that boring sponge assemblages dominated by C. vermifera are enhanced by conditions favourable for corals. Our results imply that El Niño events in the Mexican Pacific are not likely to cause immediate population outbreaks of boring sponges.

A temporal analysis of the benthic polychaete community and its relationship with environmental variables was conducted by comparing coastal sediment samples collected in three separate sampling events between 1998 and 2013 from the southern end of the Southern California Bight (SCB). Environmental variables indicated a spatio-temporal increase of the sand fraction in sediment composition. Station stratification by depth from shallow to deep, and a reduction of trace metal enrichment (Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) was also found. There was a notable change in polychaete family composition due to high abundances and frequency of Spionidae, Chaetopteridae and Phyllodocidae in 2013, especially close to the Binational wastewater treatment plant discharge. An increase in polychaete abundance, richness and diversity was indicative of a probable relationship with regional weather conditions (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and recent drought events during sampling) along with local anthropogenic discharges of wastewater treatment plants in the area.

A late Holocene carbonate spring mound and associated wetland deposits at Cienega Amarilla, New Mexico, contain a 4000-yr record of geomorphic, paleoenvironmental, and hydroclimatic change on the southern Colorado Plateau. Forty-four 14C dates support a century-scale chronostratigraphic framework. Pollen, plant macrofossil, mollusk, ostracode, and soil analyses indicate rapid spring mound growth and wetland expansion beginning ~2300 cal yr BP, followed by a pronounced decline in groundwater discharge (GWD) between ~1500 and 1000 cal yr BP. The isotopic composition of Cienega Amarilla springwater suggests GWD is driven primarily by winter precipitation. Historical climate data indicate that El Niño and warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) conditions foster wetter-than-average winters in the Cienega Amarilla area, whereas dry winters are associated with La Niña conditions regardless of PDO phase. The ~2300–1500 cal yr BP Cienega Amarilla pluvial appears to represent an interval of peak, late Holocene cool-season precipitation that implies unusually strong or persistent El Niño–like and warm PDO–like conditions in the Pacific. Other southwestern paleoenvironmental records corroborate atypically wet conditions during this interval, and pluvial conditions related to increased winter precipitation likely fostered significant prehistoric cultural changes throughout the region, including increased sedentism, population, and dependence on agriculture.

Microscopic charcoal preserved in lake and swamp sediments from 10 sites in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and from 5 sites in Central and South America have been used to reconstruct long-term fire histories for these two regions. Comparison of these records demonstrates that fire is promoted during periods of rapid climate change and high climate variability, regardless of the presence or absence of humans. Broad synchrony of changes in corrected charcoal values in each region supports an atmospheric transmission of the climate signal via the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulation systems (Walker Circulation) that appears to have persisted since 16,000 cal yr B.P. Altered climate boundary conditions under the influence of changing El Niño-related variability, insolation, sea level, and sea surface temperature all influenced the strength of this connection. Correlation of biomass burning records between the regions tends to increase in the Holocene. The main period of inverse correlation occurs during the Younger Dryas Stade, when extratropical climate most affected the tropics. The strongest correlation between the two regions postdates 5000 cal yr B.P., when El Niño-related variability intensified. Fluctuations in tropical biomass burning are at least partly controlled by orbital forcing (precession), although extratropical climate influences and human activity are also important.

An accurately dated peat profile from a mixed cypress swamp in the Fakahatchee Strand Preserve State Park (FSPSP, Florida, USA) has been examined for pollen and spores. The near-annual resolved pollen record shows a gradual shift from a wet to a relatively dry assemblage during the past 100 years. Timing of drainage activities in the region is accurately reflected by the onset and duration of vegetation change in the swamp. The reconstructed vegetation record has been statistically related to pollen assemblages from surface sediment samples. The response range of the FSPSP wetland to environmental perturbations could thus be determined and this allows better understanding of naturally occurring vegetation changes. In addition, the human impact on Florida wetlands becomes increasingly apparent. Superimposed high-frequency variation in the record suggests a positive correlation between winter-precipitation and pollen productivity of the dominant tree taxa. However, further high-resolution analysis is needed to confirm this relation. The response range of the FSPSP wetland to environmental perturbations on both annual- and decadal-scales documented in this study allows recognition and quantification of natural hydrological changes in older deposits from southwest Florida. The strong link between local hydrology and the El Niño Southern Oscillation makes the palynological record from FSPSP highly relevant for studying past El Niño–variability.

Fourteen organic-rich sedimentary layers in the deposits at Quebrada de los Burros, in coastal southern Peru (Tacna department), lie between two debris-flow units, interpreted to result from El Niño events, at 8980 cal yr B.P. and after 3380 cal yr B.P., respectively. The accumulation of the fine-grained and low-energy sediments of this deposit during the mid-Holocene is incompatible with the occurrence of El Niño events in this region, as these would produce catastrophic flood deposits. The occurrence of organic-rich sediments and evidence of an enhancement of upwelling strength at this time imply the existence of a permanent water supply resulting from an increased condensation of fog at mid-altitudes. These results suggest a lower intensity and perhaps, a lower frequency of occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon during the mid-Holocene. It is precisely during this period that the most important human settlements are found at this site, probably indicating the presence of reliable supply of fresh water. The chronologies for wetlands in the central south altiplano are out of phase with those indicating increased soil moisture episodes on the coast, implying a long-term difference in climate between these two regions.

Understanding the influence of natural climatic variability on modern fisheries is complicated by over a century of industrial fishing. Archaeological data provide unique opportunities for assessing precolonial and preindustrial fisheries. Records show that anchoveta-vs sardine-dominated fisheries correlate with 20th-century climate change in the Pacific Basin and are linked to multidecadal climatic variability. The “anchovy regime” is characterized by cooler conditions and lower frequency El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, while the “sardine regime” is associated with warmer conditions and higher frequency ENSO. Fish remains excavated at Lo Demás, an Inca-period (ca. A.D. 1480–1540) fishing site at 13°25′S on the Peruvian coast, document a shift from an anchoveta-to a sardine-dominated fishery at about A.D. 1500. This shift correlates with records for increasing ENSO frequency at the same time. Middle and late Holocene sites have archaeofish assemblages that also suggest regime changes. Here we show that changes in fish regimes can result from natural variability and we support the potential role of archaeological assemblages in tracking multidecadal climate change in the Pacific Basin throughout the Holocene (0–11,500 cal yr B.P.).

We present the first near millennium-length, annually resolved stable isotope record from bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva, D.K Bailey). The carbon isotope ratios from the cellulose of seven trees from the White Mountains of California, corrected for anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry, are used to reconstruct growing season (June through August) precipitation back to AD 1085. Extremely negative isotope results are strongly correlated with proposed severest El Niño events over the last 500 yr, and similar values in the first half of the millennium are used to reconstruct a further 13 strong El Niño events, concentrated in the 12th Century and the mid 13th and 14th Centuries. Ring-width chronologies from adjacent sites in the White Mountains demonstrate a high degree of decadal covariance with the δ13C series, although there are several periods of notable divergence.

Widespread, organic-rich diatomaceous deposits are evidence for formerly wetter times along the margins of the central Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on Earth today. We mapped and dated these paleowetland deposits at three presently waterless locations near Salar de Punta Negra (24.5°S) on the western slope of the Andes. Elevated groundwater levels supported phreatic discharge into wetlands during two periods: 15,900 to ~ 13,800 and 12,700 to ~ 9700 cal yr BP. Dense concentrations of lithic artifacts testify to the presence of paleoindians around the wetlands late in the second wet phase (11,000?–9700 cal yr BP). Water tables dropped below the surface before 15,900 and since 8100 cal yr BP, and briefly between ~ 13,800 and 12,700 cal yr BP. This temporal pattern is repeated, with some slight differences, in rodent middens from the study area, in both paleowetland and rodent midden deposits north and south of the study area, and in lake level fluctuations on the adjacent Bolivian Altiplano. The regional synchroneity of these changes points to a strengthening of the South American Monsoon — which we term the "Central Andean Pluvial Event" — in two distinct intervals (15,900–13,800 and 12,700–9700 cal yr BP), probably induced by steepened SST gradients across the tropical Pacific (i.e., La Niña-like conditions).