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European Journal of Applied Mathematics (1)

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Modelling insurgent attack dynamics across geographic scales and in cyberspace †
N. F. JOHNSON, D. E. JOHNSON, E. M. RESTREPO
Journal:

European Journal of Applied Mathematics / Volume 27 / Issue 3 / June 2016

Published online by Cambridge University Press:

21 July 2015, pp. 357-376
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We discuss the emergence of common mathematical patterns governing the timing and severity of insurgent and terrorist attacks, across geographic scales and including cyberspace. We present mathematical models that provide a generative explanation of these patterns. Despite wide variations in the underlying settings and circumstances, the ubiquity of these patterns suggests there is a common way in which groups of humans fight each other. Our empirical findings follow from the analysis of myriad state-of-the-art datasets with resolution at the level of individual attacks, while our mathematical modelling involves numerical and analytical solutions of fission–fusion dynamics together with progress curve analysis.