We present geodetic mass-balance estimates for ten glaciers (22.6 ± 1.1 km2) around Volcán Domuyo between 1962 and 2020 (and 46 glaciers covering 29 ± 1.5 km2 between 1984 and 2020), derived from airborne, ASTER and Pléiades imagery. Overall, we find a slightly negative mass balance (−0.15 ± 0.09 m w.e. a–1) for the entire 1962–2020 time span. A closer inspection of sub-periods reveals, however, an increasingly negative mass balance with time. The Domuyo glaciers shifted from a moderately positive mass balance of +0.28 ± 0.13 m w.e. a–1 between 1962 and 1984, to a strongly negative mass balance of −0.99 ± 0.19 m w.e. a–1 between 2012 and 2020. An increase in summer temperatures and a decrease in winter precipitation during the last four decades are likely drivers of the observed glacier changes. We support this finding by implementing a minimal glacier model, relying solely on monthly precipitation and air temperatures. The mass-balance evolution detected in Volcán Domuyo is consistent with other sites spread across the Central Andes, suggesting rapidly increasing glacier wastage impacts are occurring at a geographically wider scale.

Basal crevasses are macroscopic structural discontinuities at the base of ice sheets and glaciers that arise by fracture. Motivated by observations and by the mechanics of elastic fracture, we hypothesise that spatial variations in basal stress (in the presence of basal water pressure) can promote and localise basal crevassing. We quantify this process in the theoretical context of linear elastic fracture mechanics. We develop a model evaluating the effect of shear-stress variation on the growth of basal crevasses. Our results indicate that sticky patches promote the propagation of basal crevasses, increase their length of propagation into the ice and, under some conditions, give them curved trajectories that incline upstream. A detailed exploration of the parameter space is conducted to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which sticky-patch-induced basal crevassing is expected beneath ice sheets and glaciers.

Supraglacial drainage networks play an integral role in both glacier dynamics and run-off timing, and mapping them provides insight into their role in glacial systems. Here we present a reproducible approach for semi-automated mapping of supraglacial hydrologic features, which complements existing work in automated and manual mapping by providing clear definitions for identification of features. This framework uses a digital terrain model (DTM) to identify potential flow routes on the glacier surface, which are then classified using a set of standardized rules based on the DTM and an orthomosaic. We found that the normalized difference water index calculated from digital imagery was influenced by image brightness and introduce a new approach using average RGB values to correct for this. Using this framework we mapped supraglacial drainage networks at Nàłùdäy and Thores Glacier, Canada. The framework was easier to implement with high-resolution (0.5 m) imagery and DTMs, compared to data with lower resolution (10 m), due to the increased detail in topography and feature boundaries at high-resolution. Lower-resolution data captured larger streams (>2 pixels wide), however, indicating that the framework can still be used at this resolution. Mapping supraglacial hydrology using standardized methods opens possibilities for investigating many questions relating to changes in supraglacial hydrology over time.

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries.

Glacier phototroph blooms on the surfaces of ice sheets and glaciers cause albedo reduction, leading to increased melting rates. We observed seasonal changes in the abundance of phototrophs on the Qaanaaq Ice Cap in northwestern Greenland from June to August 2014, and reproduced these changes using numerical and empirical models. The phototroph community on the ice surface mainly consisted of the glacier alga Ancylonema nordenskioldii and the cyanobacterium Phormidesmis priestleyi. The glacier alga appeared on the ice surface in late June, after which its abundance increased exponentially throughout the melting period. A logistic growth model designed for snow algal growth reproduced the measured exponential increases, suggesting that growth could be explained using the model as a function of the ice melting duration. Cyanobacteria appeared and their abundance increased in late July but did not change exponentially thereafter. The abundance of cyanobacteria was explained with an empirical model expressed as a function of the amount of mineral dust on the bare ice surface. Our numerical and empirical models for reproducing glacier algae and cyanobacteria could be useful for quantifying the albedo reduction caused by their growth and the melt rates of the Greenland ice sheet and glaciers in the future.

Despite their extreme elevation, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau are losing mass in response to atmospheric warming, the pattern of which purportedly reflects regional contrasts in climate. Here we examine the evolution of glaciers along ~500 km of the Tanggula Shan, Central-Eastern Tibetan Plateau. Using remotely sensed datasets, we quantified changes in glacier mass, area and surface velocity, and compared these results to time series of meteorological observations, in order to disentangle drivers of glacier mass loss since the 1960s. Glacier mass loss has increased (from −0.21 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1 in 1960s–2000s, to −0.52 ± 0.18 m w.e. a−1 in 2000s–2015/18) in association with pervasive positive temperature anomalies (up to 1.85°C), which are pronounced at the end of the now lengthened ablation season. However, glacier mass budget perturbations do not mirror the magnitude of temperature anomalies in sub-regions, thus additional factors have heightened glacier recession. We show how proglacial lake expansion and glacier surging have compounded glacier recession over decadal/multi-decadal time periods, and exert similar influence on glacier mass budgets as temperature changes. Our results demonstrate the importance of ice loss mechanisms not often incorporated into broad-scale glacier projections, which need to be better considered to refine future glacier runoff estimates.

Calving glaciers are highly sensitive to bedrock geometry near their terminus. To understand the mechanisms controlling rapid calving glaciers’ mass loss, we measured the lake topography in front of four lake-terminating glaciers in the southern Patagonian icefield. Using remotely sensed surface elevation data, we calculated flotation height and surface slope and compared those with changes in ice-front position, surface speed and surface elevation. Rapid retreat accompanied by rapid flow acceleration and ice surface steepening was observed at Glaciar Upsala from 2008–2011, and at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers from 2016–present. Surface lowering in the lower part of Glaciar Upsala reached 30 m a−1 and was 18 m a−1 and 12 m a−1 at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers, respectively. Near- or super-buoyant conditions were observed prior to these events, leading to gradual flow acceleration due to low effective pressure and decoupling from the bed. The super-buoyant condition and gradual acceleration imply full-thickness buoyant calving, which causes the ice front to retreat from the shallow bedrock topography with substantial flow acceleration. We conclude that the buoyancy force plays an important role in the rapid mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers in southern Patagonia.

Accurate ice flow velocity data are essential for studying the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, there is a lack of ice velocity maps of 1960s–80s in basin-wide regions or the entire ice sheet. In this study, an enhanced hierarchical network densification approach is developed for basin-wide Antarctic velocity mapping using historical ARGON and Landsat images. The produced multiple historical velocity maps from 1963 to 1989 in the region of the Fimbul and Jelbart ice shelves, East Antarctica, achieved an accuracy better than 29 m a−1. They revealed that the ice flow velocity had no significant changes over the period. Combining the surface mass balance estimate with the ice discharge estimated from our historical velocity maps and recently published velocity maps, we estimated a positive mass balance of 8.6 ± 3.9 Gt a−1 in the study area from 1963 and 2015. Our results indicate that the region's positive mass balance, as estimated in recently published studies, has been maintained since the 1960s. It is also in concordance with the low level of mass balance from 1992 to 2017 in East Antarctica. This suggests that the study area has been stable since the 1960s.

Despite their importance for regional water resource planning and as indicators of climate change, records of in situ glacier mass balance remain short and spatially sparse in the Himalaya. Here, we present an updated series of in situ mass-balance measurements from Rikha Samba Glacier, Nepal, between 2011 and 2021. The updated in situ mass balance is −0.39 ± 0.32 m w.e. for this period. We use an energy-mass balance model to extend the annual mass-balance series back to 1974. The model is forced using daily meteorological variables from ERA5-Land reanalysis data that is linearly bias-corrected using observations from an automatic weather station situated near the glacier terminus. The modeled mass balance is consistent with the in situ mass-balance series measured 2011–2021 and with previous glaciological and geodetic estimates. The model results indicate a mass balance of −0.56 ± 0.27 m w.e. a−1 over the reconstruction period of 1974–2021, which is comparable to the mass losses experienced by other Himalayan glaciers during this time. An assessment of the sensitivity of the glacier mass balance to meteorological forcing suggests that a change in temperature of ±1 K has a stronger effect on the calculated mass balance compared to a ±20% change in either precipitation, or relative humidity, or solar radiation.

Arctic ice shelves have declined over the past several decades, one of many indications of a rapidly changing cryosphere. Here we use a collection of off-nadir Landsat 8 images, a 1978 digital orthophotograph and photogrammetrically derived DEM, satellite altimetry and other data to examine the causes of an Arctic ice-shelf retreat in northernmost Greenland, the Hunt Fjord Ice Shelf (HFIS). HFIS has several distinct provenance regions comprised of glacier-derived ice and corrugated multi-decadal fast ice, with varying ice thicknesses (5–64 m). Available imagery shows little change in HFIS between 1978 and 2012, after which several midsummer calving events occurred (2012, 2016 and 2019) that reduced the HFIS by 42.5 km2 (~56%). Shelf area losses began as the number of surface melt days on the adjacent ice sheet more than doubled relative to the 1980s. Recent calving events also occurred during open-water periods at the ice-shelf front. Prior to mid-2012, there were no calving events during similar open-water periods. HFIS tributary glaciers have thinned by 3–20 m near their grounding zones, and may have accelerated since the 1980s, likely due to increased basal melting from contact with warm Atlantic Water.

Floating ice shelves that fringe the coast of Antarctica resist the flow of grounded ice into the ocean. One of the key factors governing the amount of flow resistance an ice shelf provides is the rigidity (related to viscosity) of the ice that constitutes it. Ice rigidity is highly heterogeneous and must be calibrated from spatially continuous surface observations assimilated into an ice-flow model. Realistic uncertainties in calibrated rigidity values are needed to quantify uncertainties in ice sheet and sea-level forecasts. Here, we present a physics-informed machine learning framework for inferring the full probability distribution of rigidity values for a given ice shelf, conditioned on ice surface velocity and thickness fields derived from remote-sensing data. We employ variational inference to jointly train neural networks and a variational Gaussian Process to reconstruct surface observations, rigidity values and uncertainties. Applying the framework to synthetic and large ice shelves in Antarctica demonstrates that rigidity is well-constrained where ice deformation is measurable within the noise level of the observations. Further reduction in uncertainties can be achieved by complementing variational inference with conventional inversion methods. Our results demonstrate a path forward for continuously updated calibrations of ice flow parameters from remote-sensing observations.

Glacier motion responds dynamically to changing meltwater inputs, but the multi-decadal response of basal sliding to climate remains poorly constrained due to its sensitivity across multiple timescales. Observational records of glacier motion provide critical benchmarks to decode processes influencing glacier dynamics, but multi-decadal records that precede satellite observation and modern warming are rare. Here we present a record of motion in the ablation zone of Saskatchewan Glacier that spans seven decades. We combine in situ and remote-sensing observations to inform a first-order glacier flow model used to estimate the relative contributions of sliding and internal deformation on dynamics. We find a significant increase in basal sliding rates between melt-seasons in the 1950s and those in the 1990s and 2010s and explore three process-based explanations for this anomalous behavior: (i) the glacier surface steepened over seven decades, maintaining flow-driving stresses despite sustained thinning; (ii) the formation of a proglacial lake after 1955 may support elevated basal water pressures; and (iii) subglacial topography may cause dynamic responses specific to Saskatchewan Glacier. Although further constraints are necessary to ascertain which processes are of greatest importance for Saskatchewan Glacier's dynamic evolution, this record provides a benchmark for studies of multi-decadal glacier dynamics.

Strain, temperature and strain rate are crucial factors governing the development of crystallographic preferred orientations (CPO) in ice. To better understand how CPO patterns change in response to these variables, we performed quantitative analyses on neutron diffraction data between 2010 and 2019, collected in situ during uniaxial compression experiments on deuterium ice. At strains >10% and temperatures <−10°C, the c-axis pattern switches from a single maximum (‘cluster’) to small circle (‘cone’), both oriented parallel to shortening. The diameter and mean width of the cone pattern decrease as strain and/or strain rate increases. Prismatic axis (a and m) patterns are characterised by great circles parallel to the pole figure margin and may be distinguishable from the patterns in ice deformed under simple shear. While strain has the main influence on the degree of preferred orientation (or CPO ‘strength’), both temperature and strain rate have minor influences, which limits the extent to which CPOs can be used to measure strain. As cluster patterns can be observed in the c-axes of ice deformed under both pure and simple shear settings, this may complicate interpretations of flow geometry in terrestrial ice unless the prismatic axis patterns are also considered.

Ice patches have implications for landscape and ecosystem dynamics in polar deserts, however, the understanding of the driving factors that control their spatio-temporal variability is limited. This study aims to assess the seasonal and long-term evolution of ice patches on Ward Hunt Island (WHI; 83°N, Canadian High Arctic) based on field measurements of surface mass and energy balance. Results show that mass gains of the ice patch systems occur mostly through drifting snow, making them highly linked to the topography as well as the frequency and magnitude of wind events. Summer ablation is primarily driven by net radiation, but the short-term variability in melt rate is driven by sensible heat fluxes. The highest ablation rates occur during the passage of warm fronts that combine strong winds and mild temperatures. Conversely, foggy days reduce fluxes of solar radiation and sensible heat to the snow/ice surface, thereby suppressing ablation. Ice patches are less climate-sensitive than other cryospheric elements due to a feedback between snow accumulation and topography, however, summer ablation is strongly influenced by micrometeorology. Model projections of these factors suggest that conditions will become critical for preserving ice patches at WHI and along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island as early as in the next decades.

Glacier monitoring has been internationally coordinated for more than 125 years. Despite this long history, there is no authoritative answer to the popular question: ‘Which glaciers are the largest in the world?’ Here, we present the first systematic assessment of this question and identify the largest glaciers in the world – distinct from the two ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica but including the glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. We identify the largest glaciers in two domains: on each of the seven geographical continents and in the 19 first-order glacier regions defined by the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers. Ranking glaciers by area is non-trivial. It depends on how a glacier is defined and mapped and also requires differentiating between a glacier and a glacier complex, i.e. glaciers that meet at ice divides such as ice caps and icefields. It also depends on the availability of a homogenized global glacier inventory. Using separate rankings for glaciers and glacier complexes, we find that the largest glacier complexes have areas on the order of tens of thousands of square kilometers whereas the largest glaciers are several thousands of square kilometers. The world's largest glaciers and glacier complexes are located in the Antarctic, Arctic and Patagonia.

High Mountain Asia (HMA) glaciers are critical water reserves for montane regions, which are readily influenced by climate change. The glacier mass balance during 2000–2021 over HMA was estimated by comparing the elevations from ICESat-2 and the NASADEM. Radar penetration depth could be one of the intrinsic error sources in estimating glacier mass balance by using NASADEM. Therefore, we doubled elevation differences between the X-band Shuttle Radar Topography Missions (SRTMs) and NASADEM to estimate the potential error. The spatial characteristics of the altitude-dependent penetration depth can be detected in most sub-regions of HMA. Relatively deep penetrations in the Himalaya (2.3–3.7 m) and Hissar Alay (4.3 m) regions and small penetrations in the south-eastern HMA (1.0 m) were observed. The HMA region experienced a significant mass loss at a rate of −0.18 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1, in which the Hengduan Shan exhibited the highest mass loss of −0.62 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1, the West Kun Lun experienced a substantial mass gain of 0.23 ± 0.13 m w.e. a−1, and the Karakoram showed a more or less balance. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that assessed the mass balance of HMA glaciers from different methods.

In this study, we investigate the differences between two transient, three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled ice-sheet models, namely, a first-order approximation model (FOM) and a ‘full’ Stokes ice-sheet model (FSM) under the same numerical framework. For all numerical experiments, we take the FSM outputs as the reference values and calculate the mean relative errors in the velocity and temperature fields for the FOM over 100 years. Four different boundary conditions (ice slope, geothermal heat flux, basal topography and basal sliding) are tested, and by changing these parameters, we verify the thermomechanical behavior of the FOM and discover that the velocity and temperature biases of the FOM generally increase with increases in the ice slope, geothermal heat flux, undulation amplitude of the ice base, and with the existence of basal sliding. In addition, the model difference between the FOM and FSM may accumulate over time, and the spatial distribution patterns of the relative velocity and temperature errors are in good agreement.

The Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields are rapidly losing volume, with current volume loss rates greater than 20 km3 a−1. However, details of the spatial and temporal distribution of their volume loss remain uncertain. We evaluate the rate of 21st-century glacier volume loss using the hydrological balance of four glacierised Patagonian river basins. We isolate the streamflow contribution from changes in ice volume and evaluate whether the rate of volume loss has decreased, increased, or remained constant. Out of 11 glacierised sub-basins, seven exhibit significant increases in the rate of ice volume loss, with a 2006–2019 time integrated anomaly in the rate of glacier volume loss of 135 ± 50 km3. This anomaly in the rate of glacier-volume-loss is spatially heterogeneous, varying from a 7.06 ± 1.69 m a−1 increase in ice loss to a 3.18 ± 1.48 m a−1 decrease in ice loss. Greatest increases in the rate of ice loss are found in the early spring and late summer, suggesting a prolonging of the melt season. Our results highlight increasing, and in some cases accelerating, rates of volume loss of Patagonia's lake-terminating glaciers, with a 2006–2019 anomaly in the rate of glacier volume loss contributing an additional 0.027 ± 0.01 mm a−1 of global mean sea-level rise.

The complex topography and size of High Mountain Asia (HMA) result in large differences in glacier mass-balance variability and climate sensitivity. Current understanding of these sensitivities is limited by simplifications in past studies’ model structure. This study overcomes this limitation by using a mass-balance model to investigate the climatic mass-balance variability and climate sensitivity of 16 glaciers covering major mountain ranges in HMA. Generally, glaciers in the southeast have higher mass turnover while glaciers at the margins of HMA show higher interannual mass-balance variability. All glaciers are most sensitive to temperature perturbations in summer. The climatic mass balance of 15 glaciers is most sensitive to precipitation perturbations in summer or spring and summer, even if the seasonal accumulation peak is not in summer. Only one glacier's mass balance (Chhota Shigri Glacier) is most sensitive to precipitation perturbations in winter. Glaciers with high mass turnover and high summer-precipitation ratio are more sensitive to temperature perturbations. Sensitivity experiments reveal that besides the non-linearity of mass-balance temperature sensitivity, mass-balance precipitation sensitivity is non-linear as well. Furthermore, resolving the diurnal cycle of albedo, (re)freezing and the differentiation between liquid and solid precipitation are important to assess climate sensitivity of glaciers in HMA.

The interior of an ice sheet consists of layers of accumulated snow, which contain important information on accumulation and ice dynamics that are imprinted on layer shapes over time. This work describes how changes in accumulation influence the stratigraphy of an ice sheet. The thickness of each layer at present day depends both on accumulation and on the effect of dynamic thinning after its deposition. An isochronal numerical model is used to simulate the evolution of a 2-D, idealized ice sheet while explicitly representing the layers. A series of simulations was carried out to quantify the changes that anomalous accumulation at different locations and times has on the stratigraphy. These simulations form the basis of a linear response function. A second set of simulations with more sustained changes in accumulation is then used to describe large-scale and long-term impacts on the layering of the ice sheet as well as to test the quality of the linear approximation. The aim is to examine whether long-term effects can be extrapolated from small differential changes. The result confirms a certain degree of linearity between changes in accumulation and layer thickness that may be exploited for future inverse modeling applications.