We present the first systematic inventory of surge-type glaciers for the whole of Greenland compiled from published datasets and multitemporal satellite images and digital elevation models. The inventory allows us to define the spatial and climatic distribution of surge-type glaciers and to analyse the timing of surges from 1985 to 2019. We identified 274 surge-type glaciers, an increase of 37% compared to previous work. Mapping surge-type glacier distribution by temperature and precipitation variables derived from ERA5-Land reanalysis data shows that the west and east clusters occur in well-defined climatic envelopes. Analysis of the timing of surge active phases during the periods ~1985 to 2000 (T1) and ~2000 to 2019 (T2) suggests that overall surge activity is similar in T1 and T2, but there appears to be a reduction in surging in the west cluster in T2. Our climate analysis shows a coincident increase in mean annual and mean winter air temperature between T1 and T2. We suggest that as glaciers thin under current warming, some surge-type glaciers in the west cluster may be being prevented from surging due to (1) their inability to build-up sufficient mass and (2) a switch from a polythermal to a largely cold-based thermal regime.

Glaciers in the Russian High Arctic have undergone accelerated mass loss due to atmospheric and oceanic warming in the Barents–Kara Sea region. Most studies have concentrated on the western Barents–Kara sector, despite evidence of accelerating mass loss as far east as Severnaya Zemlya. However, long-term trends in glacier change on Severnaya Zemlya are largely unknown and this record may be complicated by surge-type glaciers. Here, we present a long-term assessment of glacier change (1965–2021) on Severnaya Zemlya and a new inventory of surge-type glaciers using declassified spy-satellite photography (KH-7/9 Hexagon) and optical satellite imagery (ASTER, Sentinel-2A, Landsat-4/5 TM and 8 OLI). Glacier area reduced from 17 053 km2 in 1965 to 16 275 in 2021 (−5%; mean: −18%, max: −100%), with areal shrinkage most pronounced at land-terminating glaciers on southern Severnaya Zemlya, where there is a recent (post-2010s) increase in summer atmospheric temperatures. We find that surging may be more widespread than previously thought, with three glaciers classified confirmed as surge-type, eight as likely to have surged and nine as possible, comprising 11% of Severnaya Zemlya's 190 glaciers (37% by area). Under continued warming, we anticipate accelerated retreat and increased likelihood of surging as basal thermal regimes shift.

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.

Changes in iceberg calving fluxes and oceanographic conditions around Antarctica have likely influenced the spatial and temporal distribution of iceberg fresh water fluxes to the surrounding ocean basins. However, Antarctic iceberg melt rate estimates have been limited to very large icebergs in the open ocean. Here we use a remote-sensing approach to estimate iceberg melt rates from 2011 to 2022 for 15 study sites around Antarctica. Melt rates generally increase with iceberg draft and follow large-scale variations in ocean temperature: maximum melt rates for the western peninsula, western ice sheet, eastern ice sheet and eastern peninsula are ~50, ~40, ~5 and ~5 m a−1, respectively. Iceberg melt sensitivity to thermal forcing varies widely, with a best-estimate increase in melting of ~24 m a−1°C−1 and range from near-zero to ~100 m a−1°C−1. Variations in water shear likely contribute to the apparent spread in thermal forcing sensitivity across sites. Although the sensitivity of iceberg melt rates to water shear prevents the use of melt rates as a proxy to infer coastal water mass temperature variability, additional coastal iceberg melt observations will likely improve models of Southern Ocean fresh water fluxes and have potential for subglacial discharge plume mapping.

To investigate the mechanisms driving recent changes in outlet glaciers in Antarctica, we measured the glacier front position, flow velocity and surface elevation of five outlet glaciers flowing into Lützow-Holm Bay in East Antarctica. After a steady advance from 2008 to 2015, all the glaciers synchronously retreated by 0.4–6.0 km between 2016 and 2018. The initiation of the retreat coincided with the breakup of land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay in 2016, which resulted in the largest sea-ice loss in the region since 1998. Similar flow variations and surface elevation changes were observed near the grounding line of Shirase, Skallen and Telen glaciers. The slowdown in 2011–15 (by 13%) and the speedup in 2016–18 (by 7%) coincided with the respective increase and decrease in surface elevation. Simultaneous retreat and acceleration after the land-fast sea-ice breakup implies that sea ice has a significant influence on glacier dynamics. Thickening/thinning observed near the grounding line was attributed to a reduced/enhanced stretching flow regime during the deceleration/acceleration period. Our results demonstrate that land-fast sea ice affects not only terminus positions, but also the flow speed and ice thickness of the Antarctic glaciers.

The Ward Hunt and Milne ice shelves are the present-day remnants of a much larger ice shelf that once fringed the coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada. These ice shelves possess a unique surface morphology consisting of wave-like rolls that run parallel to the shoreline. Setting aside the question of how these rolls originally developed, we consider the impact of this roll morphology on the stability of the ice shelf. In particular, we examine whether periodic variations in ice-shelf thickness and water depth implied by the rolls prevent the excitation of Lamb waves in the ice shelf. Using a hierarchy of numerical models, we find that there are band gaps in the flexural and extensional modes of the ice shelf, implying the existence of frequency ranges that lack wave motion. We show that an ice shelf with rolls is able to reflect waves in these frequency ranges that are incident upon its ice front, thereby mitigating undue stress and calving. We speculate that the roll morphology provides a “fitness” for survival that explains why rolls are observed in the oldest and thickest multiyear sea ice of the Arctic.

Estimates of ice shelf mass loss are typically based on surface height measurements, assuming hydrostatic equilibrium and estimated firn thickness. Recent investigations, however, challenge the assumption that ice shelves are freely floating, particularly in proximity to narrow structures such as basal channels and shear margins. We compare contemporaneous measurements of Antarctic ice shelf thickness, from ice-penetrating radar, to freeboard height, from laser altimetry, acquired during multiple airborne surveys. On average, the hydrostatic thickness differs from observed thickness by at least ~17 ± 98 m, but this difference varies well beyond the propagated error within and among ice shelves, and depends on the corrections applied. We find that uncertainty in firn thickness can account for most, but not all, of the imbalance. Overall, errors in hydrostatic thickness do not significantly impact estimated basal melt rates. Our results indicate that localized approaches to estimating ice shelf thickness and rates of change are not applicable at large scales, and vice versa, and point to the need for more abundant and accurate firn and ice thickness measurements to improve estimates and predictions of ice shelf mass loss.

One of the largest contributors to uncertainty in predictions of sea-level rise from ice-sheet models is a lack of knowledge about the bed topography beneath ice sheets. Bed topography maps are normally made by interpolating between linear radar surveys using methods that include kriging, mass conservation and flowline diffusion, all of which may miss influential mesoscale (2–30 km) bedforms. Previous works have explored an Ice-Flow Perturbation Analysis (IFPA) approach for estimating bed topography using the surface expression of these mesoscale bedforms. Using regions of Pine Island Glacier that have been intensively surveyed by ice-penetrating radar as test sites, and a refined IFPA methodology, we find that IFPA detects bedforms capable of influencing ice flow which are not represented in Bedmachine Antarctica and other interpolated bed products. We further explore the ability of IFPA to estimate relative bed slipperiness, finding higher slipperiness in the main trunk and tributaries. Alongside other methods which estimate ice thickness, bed topography maps from IFPA have the potential to constrain projections of future sea-level rise, especially where radar data are sparse.

A common technique for simulating non–Newtonian fluid dynamics, such as snow avalanches, is to solve the Shallow Water Equations (SWE), together with a rheological model describing the momentum dissipation by shear stresses. Friction and cohesion terms are commonly modelled using the Voellmy friction model and, recently, the Bartelt cohesion model. Here, an adaptation of the Roe scheme that ensures the balance between the flux and pressure gradients and the friction source term is presented. An upwind scheme was used for the discretisation of the SWE numerical fluxes and the non–velocity-dependent terms of the friction–cohesion model, whereas a centred scheme was used for the velocity-dependent source terms. The model was tested in analytically solvable settings, laboratory experiments and real cases. In all cases, the model performed well, avoiding numerical instabilities and achieving stable and consistent solution even for an avalanche stopping on a sloping terrain.

Ice streams are regions of rapid ice sheet flow characterised by a high degree of sliding over a deforming bed. The shallow shelf approximation (SSA) provides a convenient way to obtain closed-form approximations of the velocity and flux in a rapidly sliding ice stream when the basal drag is much less than the driving stress. However, the validity of the SSA approximation breaks down when the magnitude of the basal drag increases. Here we find a more accurate expression for the velocity and flux in this transitional regime before vertical deformation fully dominates, in agreement with numerical results. The closed-form expressions we derive can be incorporated into wider modelling efforts to yield a better characterisation of ice stream dynamics, and inform the use of the SSA in large-scale simulations.

Calving glaciers are highly sensitive to bedrock geometry near their terminus. To understand the mechanisms controlling rapid calving glaciers’ mass loss, we measured the lake topography in front of four lake-terminating glaciers in the southern Patagonian icefield. Using remotely sensed surface elevation data, we calculated flotation height and surface slope and compared those with changes in ice-front position, surface speed and surface elevation. Rapid retreat accompanied by rapid flow acceleration and ice surface steepening was observed at Glaciar Upsala from 2008–2011, and at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers from 2016–present. Surface lowering in the lower part of Glaciar Upsala reached 30 m a−1 and was 18 m a−1 and 12 m a−1 at O'Higgins and Viedma glaciers, respectively. Near- or super-buoyant conditions were observed prior to these events, leading to gradual flow acceleration due to low effective pressure and decoupling from the bed. The super-buoyant condition and gradual acceleration imply full-thickness buoyant calving, which causes the ice front to retreat from the shallow bedrock topography with substantial flow acceleration. We conclude that the buoyancy force plays an important role in the rapid mass loss of lake-terminating glaciers in southern Patagonia.

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries.

Ice patches have implications for landscape and ecosystem dynamics in polar deserts, however, the understanding of the driving factors that control their spatio-temporal variability is limited. This study aims to assess the seasonal and long-term evolution of ice patches on Ward Hunt Island (WHI; 83°N, Canadian High Arctic) based on field measurements of surface mass and energy balance. Results show that mass gains of the ice patch systems occur mostly through drifting snow, making them highly linked to the topography as well as the frequency and magnitude of wind events. Summer ablation is primarily driven by net radiation, but the short-term variability in melt rate is driven by sensible heat fluxes. The highest ablation rates occur during the passage of warm fronts that combine strong winds and mild temperatures. Conversely, foggy days reduce fluxes of solar radiation and sensible heat to the snow/ice surface, thereby suppressing ablation. Ice patches are less climate-sensitive than other cryospheric elements due to a feedback between snow accumulation and topography, however, summer ablation is strongly influenced by micrometeorology. Model projections of these factors suggest that conditions will become critical for preserving ice patches at WHI and along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island as early as in the next decades.

Although over 600 Antarctic subglacial lakes have been identified using radar and satellite observations, the bathymetry and bed properties, which are key to understanding conditions within the lake, have been determined in very few localities. We present measurements of water column thickness and lakebed properties from Lago Subglacial CECs (SLC), located beneath 2653 m of ice at the Rutford-Institute-Minnesota divide in Antarctica. Seismic profiles indicate a maximum water column thickness of 301.3 ± 1.5 m, at the widest part of the lake, with an estimated lake volume of 2.5 ± 0.3 km3. Seismic imaging and measurements of the reflection strength at the ice base and lakebed indicate >15 m of high-porosity fine-grained sediment in the central section of the lakebed, consistent with a depositional sequence with an age of up to 0.5 Ma. These observations, along with previous radar measurements and modelling, indicate a low-energy sedimentary environment with a long water-residence time. As such, SLC is a suitable target for exploration via direct access to recover sediment records of ice sheet and climate history and investigate microbial life with long periods of isolation.

Water pressure beneath glaciers influences ice velocity. Subglacial hydrology models are helpful for gaining insight into basal conditions, but models depend on unconstrained parameters, and a current challenge is reproducing elevated water pressures in winter. We eliminate terms related to englacial storage, opening by sliding, and melt due to changes in the pressure-melting-point temperature, to create a minimalist version of the Subglacial Hydrology And Kinetic, Transient Interactions (SHAKTI) model, and apply this model to Helheim Glacier in east Greenland to explore the winter base state of the subglacial drainage system. Our results suggest that meltwater produced at the bed alone supports active winter drainage with large areas of elevated water pressure and preferential drainage pathways, using a continuum approach that allows for transitions between flow regimes. Transmissivity varies spatially over several orders of magnitude from 10−4 to 103 m2s−1, with regions of weak transmissivity representing poorly connected regions of the system. Bed topography controls the location of primary drainage pathways, and high basal melt rates occur along the steep valley walls. Frictional heat from sliding is a dominant source of basal melt; different approaches for calculating basal shear stress produce significantly different basal melt rates and subglacial discharge.

This study presents the first light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-based morphometric description of a water blister from a past ice-sheet bed caused by rapid supraglacial drainage. The blister formed during the rapid early Holocene deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS). It is located in southwest Finland within a subglacial meltwater route interpreted to represent the transition from a distributed to a channelized drainage system. A LiDAR digital elevation model was supplemented with sedimentological and ground-penetrating radar data on blister outflow channels and sedimentology of downflow polymorphous mounds and ridges (PMRs). Unlike the water blisters recorded from the rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet, the smaller blister size here was either due to crevasse or moulin drainage, or was a supraglacial lake drainage that tapped into a pre-existing, relatively efficient drainage system and related semi-sorted sediments, promoting rapid drainage and reworking of PMRs along the meltwater route. The preservation potential or exposure probability of blister marks is presumably low but they can provide important information about evolution of subglacial drainage systems that is of value to modern interpretations of glacial hydrology.