Predictive models for the accumulation of available phosphorus (Olsen-P, extracted with 0·5 mol/l sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) at pH 8·5) in the north-western arid areas of China, especially in Xinjiang, are essential for the improved management of phosphorus (P) fertilizers. In the present study, an accumulation model for Olsen-P in grey desert soil (Calcaric Cambisol) was developed using the data for initial Olsen-P in soil, P fertilizer application rate (organic and inorganic P), crop yields, and soil pH from a 22-year long-term experiment (1990–2011) with 3-year rotation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), maize (Zea mays L.) and cotton (Gossypium spp.). The model was also validated independently using previously published data from the literature. The results indicated an average net accumulation of Olsen-P in the plough layer (0–200 mm) of 0·36 mg/kg/year (from 0·083 to 0·47 mg/kg/year) when P fertilizer was applied, while an average net Olsen-P loss of 0·12 mg/kg/year (from 0·067 to 0·26 mg/kg/year) was observed without P fertilization in the soil. For target yields of wheat, maize and cotton at 5, 6 and 6 tonne/ha (t/ha), respectively, in soil with pH 8, the rates of Olsen-P increase in the soil as estimated by the model were 0·11, 0·24, 0·36, 0·49 and 0·61 mg/kg/year when P application rates were 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 kg P/ha per 3-year period, respectively. For every 100 kg/ha of P surplus, Olsen-P increased by 1·1 mg/kg in Xinjiang grey desert soil. This Olsen-P accumulation model was valuable for the management of soil P in agricultural production and environmental protection in north-western China and other arid areas planted with a yearly rotation of wheat, maize or cotton.