Several studies have estimated plant nutrient demand functions for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. All included own-price effects but excluded prices of jointly applied nutrients. In this study, nutrient demand functions, which include prices of all three nutrients, are estimated for Tennessee by seemingly unrelated regression. Results suggest that cross-price eflfects are important in determining plant nutrient demand, at least in the case of Tennessee, and that multicollinearity need not be a hindrance in all cases to including cross-price eflfects in plant nutrient demand models.

Virtually every economic situation in agriculture has an unmatched pair of implications that may be called the proximate and the ultimate. Devaluation of the fixed assets of agriculture has a meaning of enormous significance in the here-and-now — the proximate. It bears not so much on impersonal gross measures of productivity and output but on the human element. Loss of farm asset values is a major blow to the hopes and aspirations of hundreds of thousands of farmers, bringing intense emotional distress and even suicides.

Selected risk programming solutions (i.e., profit maximization, Target-MOTAD, and MOTAD) are tested in an economic environment outside the data set from which they were developed. Specifically, solutions are derived from either a longer 10-year (1965-74) or shorter 6-year estimation period (1969-74), and then, they are tested for consistent risk-income characteristics over a later 10-year period (1975-84). Risk solutions estimated from earlier periods perform well in the later test period in spite of different economic conditions between time periods. However, favorable performance may be related to the specific example used in this analysis. Further testing for other farm situations is needed before general conclusions can be reached.

The first noun used in the Smith-Lever Act (Cooperative Extension's enabling Legislation) is “people”. The first verb in the act is “aid.” In 1944, M. L. Wilson wrote (Kelsey and Heame) “Extension is a partnership agency in which the officials of government federal, state, and county sit in council with rural people and together analyze local conditions, take stock of their resources, and make and help to carry out programs for the financial, educational, and social benefit of the community and its individual members.”

With public attention increasingly focused on the farm financial crisis, it seems fitting to examine in some depth the financial positions and lending experiences of agricultural banks. We will briefly present our perceptions of the farm situation and why conditions have deteriorated in the farm sector over the past decade. An overall look at national and regional farm debt follows with emphasis on the share extended by commercial banks. Following a look at the general banking environment, we then turn to a comprehensive examination of the situation in the Southeast defined here as the states partially or totally included in the Sixth Federal Reserve District (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee).

Florida is typical of many southeastern states in that it exports feeder cattle and imports carcass and boxed beef. The objective of this paper is to estimate the cost of retaining feeder cattle in Florida, feeding these cattle to slaughter weights, slaughtering them, and distributing the meat to retail outlets. A mixed integer programming model is developed. The optimal number and location of feedlots and slaughter plants are determined. The results indicate that at production levels exceeding 600,000 head, the cost of producing carcass beef in the State is comparable to the average for the United States.

The current agricultural crisis has impacted virtually every aspect of agribusiness. Many sectors of the general economy not directly linked to agribusiness have also felt the crisis. Information provided in this discussion is intended to: facilitate understanding of the current financial situation in agriculture, identify factors that have contributed to the situation, and explore alternative strategies for agribusiness firms.

Although apparently preferred by farmers to direct hedging as a forward pricing mechanism, forward contracting has received little attention in the literature dealing with optimal forward pricing levels. An often-cited reason for producer preference for forward contracting is the absence of basis risks under that forward pricing alternative. This paper presents models of optimal forward contracting and hedging under price and yield uncertainty within a mean-variance framework. The results indicate that basis certainty does not explain preferences for forward contracting.

A model with omitted resource constraints is suggested as an alternative to a risk aversion model for explaining economic behavior. This paper uses two standard mathematical programming models to further explore this issue. One model is a standard profit maximization linear programming model and the other is a risk averse quadratic programming model with part of the constraints deleted. Theoretical investigation of these models demonstrates that risk aversion can substitute for omitted resource constraints. A small empirical model is then solved under both formulations. With resource constraints deleted, positive risk aversion is necessary to obtain a similar enterprise organization as under profit maximization with complete constraints. These two solutions are then interpreted with the theoretical optimality conditions.

Systematic approaches to validation of linear programming models are discussed for prescriptive and predictive applications to economic problems. Specific references are made to a general linear programming formulation, however, the approaches are applicable to mathematical programming applications in general. Detailed procedures are outlined for validating various aspects of model performance given complete or partial sets of observed, real world values of variables. Alternative evaluation criteria are presented along with procedures for correcting validation problems.

Changes since 1970 in the distribution of selected farm characteristics among constant and current dollar farm sales categories were examined. In general, the same trends emerged but changes were less dramatic after adjusting for inflation. The increasing concentration of net farm income among farms with sales exceeding $500,000 was attributed in part to their continuing high ratio of gross farm income to expenses (approximately 145 percent). Farms with sales between $10,000 and $500,000 became more dependent on nonfarm income. This dependency is postulated to result from a farm income treadmill and use of nonfarm income to cope with the treadmill.

Feasibility of forward pricing sales of rice bran via cross-hedging was investigated. Corn, oats, wheat, and soybean meal futures were considered as simple and multiple cross-hedging media. Simulation results indicated that simple cross-hedging using corn futures would be most effective in reducing price risks.

Whole farm simulation analysis and econometric techniques are employed in an analysis of crop rotations and tenure arrangement strategies. The FLIPSIM model is used to analyze a representative Texas Upper Gulf Coast rice and soybean farm. Probit analysis is then used to determine the impact of net cash farm income, land tenure, and crop rotation on probability of survival. Results suggest that, although the simulation model is useful in providing information on the effect at the farm level of following the different strategies, probit results provide greater understanding into the returns and risk inherent to each strategy.

A procedure is described for evaluating poultry and egg research projects. A peer review questionnaire and benefit-cost analysis are utilized incorporating elasticities from an econometric model for poultry and eggs. Production, cost, and price changes are used to calculate changes in producer surplus and net economic surplus for a set of privately funded publicly conducted research projects.

An analysis of a typical crop and livestock farm in North Florida is presented. The analysis incorporates the potential competition and complementarity among crop and beef cattle enterprises. A Target MOTAD model is developed to account for risk in a decision framework.

The results indicate that when income risk is ignored, peanuts, watermelon, and stocker cattle are the only enterprises included in the optimal solution. When income risk is heavily weighted, the optimal solution includes peanuts, watermelon, stocker cattle, cow-calf, and irrigated soybeans. The results suggest that the persistence of cow-calf production may be explained as a stabilizer of income.

Least cost feed mix by linear programming (LP) is a standard economic analysis in the poultry industry. A significant body of nutrition knowledge is now contained in the constraint set of industry LP models. This knowledge might be merged into an improved economic model that contains production response information. Analysis using a quadratic programming model indicated that a leading broiler firm could have improved economic efficiency by increasing protein density and reducing energy density of broiler finisher feed. If applicable industry wide, similar savings could be as high as $120 million per year.

The agricultural sector has operated in a period of high real interest rates for over half a decade. Some are concerned that this has limited capital availability and stagnated the historic capital for labor substitution occurring in the sector. This study proposes new procedures for estimating the aggregate production function of United States agriculture. Improvements include incorporation of total returns and revised measures of both durable and nondurable capital inputs. Results indicate increasing capital productivity has occurred, but encouraging further capital substitution may not benefit agricultural producers.

The enterprise budget, whole farm cash flow, and income statement are fundamental tools of farm and ranch management. The “Microcomputer Budget Management System” (MBMS) is a microcomputer software package that facilitates the storage and use of information for crop and livestock budgeting. It performs the calculations for several1 enterprise budgeting formats and for preparation of whole farm resource use reports and financial statements. The MBMS also includes internal machinery and irrigation cost calculation routines.

MBMS was developed for use by extension staff, researchers, lenders, consultants, and operators of diversified farms and ranches with many enterprises that use enterprise and whole farm budgeting for analysis and planning activities. The flexibility and detailed nature of the program requires the user to have knowledge of enterprise budgeting and operation of complex computer programs. This paper presents a discussion of the features and capabilities of the software and the computational procedures used in the cost calculations.

Regular hired farm workers, performing 150 days or more of farm work annually, became increasingly important in the 1970's. The number of regular hired workers in the United States increased by almost 50 percent during the decade, while the number of seasonal workers, operators, and unpaid family workers declined. Pricing of regular hired labor is investigated through estimation of three nested wage determination models in a case study analysis for Georgia. Micro-level data on individual workers were used to analyze the effects of general human capital, farm worker duties, local labor market conditions, and farm characteristics on wage rates.