Household contacts of an index case of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) are at increased risk of acquiring disease. In revising WHO guidance on IMD in sub-Saharan Africa, a systematic review was undertaken to assess the effect of chemoprophylaxis and of vaccination in preventing subsequent cases of IMD in household contacts following an index case. A literature search for systematic reviews identified a single suitable review on chemoprophylaxis in 2004 (three studies meta-analysed). A search for primary research papers published since 2004 on chemoprophylaxis and without a date limit on vaccination was therefore undertaken. There were 2381 studies identified of which two additional studies met the inclusion criteria. The summary risk ratio for chemoprophylaxis vs. no chemoprophylaxis (four studies) in the 30-day period after a case was 0·16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·04-0·64, P = 0·008]; the number needed to treat to prevent one subsequent case was 200 (95% CI 111-1000). A single quasi-randomized trial assessed the role of vaccination. The risk ratio for vaccination vs. no vaccination at 30 days was 0·11 (95% CI 0·01–2·07, P = 0·14). The results support the use of chemoprophylaxis to prevent subsequent cases of IMD in household contacts of a case. Conclusions about the use of vaccination could not be drawn.

The aim of the European Sero-Epidemiology Network 2 (ESEN2) project was to estimate age-specific seroprevalence for a number of vaccine-preventable diseases in Europe. To achieve this serosurveys were collected by 22 national laboratories. To adjust for a variety of laboratory methods and assays, all quantitative results were transformed to a reference laboratory's units and were then classified as positive or negative to obtain age-specific seroprevalence. The aim of this study was to assess the value of standardization by comparing the crude and standardized seroprevalence estimates. Seroprevalence was estimated for measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, varicella zoster and hepatitis A virus (HAV) and compared before and after serological results had been standardized. The results showed that if no such adjustment had taken place, seroprevalence would have differed by an average of 3·2% (95% bootstrap interval 2·9–3·6) although this percentage varied substantially by antigen. These differences were as high as 16% for some serosurveys (HAV) which means that standardization could have a considerable impact on seroprevalence estimates and should be considered when comparing serosurveys performed in different laboratories using different assay methods.

We quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.

Acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) is an important public health priority worldwide. Few studies have captured the burden of AGI in developing countries, and even fewer have focused on Indigenous populations. This study aimed to estimate the incidence and determinants of AGI within a Batwa Pygmy Indigenous population in southwestern Uganda. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was conducted in January 2013 via a census of 10 Batwa communities (n = 583 participants). The AGI case definition included any self-reported symptoms of diarrhoea or vomiting in the past 2 weeks. The 14-day prevalence of AGI was 6·17% [95% confidence interval (CI) 4·2–8·1], corresponding to an annual incidence rate of 1·66 (95% CI 1·1–2·2) episodes of AGI per person-year. AGI prevalence was greatest in children aged <3 years (11·3%). A multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression model controlling for clustering at the community level indicated that exposure to goats [odds ratio (OR) 2·6, 95% CI 1·0–6·8], being a child aged <3 years (OR 4·8, 95% CI 1·2–18·9), and being a child, adolescent or senior Batwa in the higher median of wealth (OR 7·0, 95% CI 3·9–9·2) were significantly associated with having AGI. This research represents the first Indigenous community-census level study of AGI in Uganda, and highlights the substantial burden of AGI within this population.

Norovirus outbreaks occur frequently in Denmark and it can be difficult to establish whether apparently independent outbreaks have the same origin. Here we report on six outbreaks linked to frozen raspberries, investigated separately over a period of 3 months. Norovirus from stools were sequence-typed; including extended sequencing of 1138 bp encompassing the hypervariable P2 region of the capsid gene. Norovirus was detected in 27 stool samples. Genotyping showed genotype GI.Pb_GI.6 (polymerase/capsid) with 100% identical sequences. Samples from five outbreaks were furthermore identical over the variable capsid P2 region. In one outbreak at a hospital canteen, frozen raspberries was associated with illness by cohort investigation (relative risk 6·1, 95% confidence interval 3·2–11). Bags of raspberries suspected to be the source were positive for genogroup I and II noroviruses, one typable virus was genotype GI.6 (capsid). These molecular investigations showed that the apparently independent outbreaks were the result of one contamination event of frozen raspberries. The contaminated raspberries originated from a single producer in Serbia and were originally not considered to belong to the same batch. The outbreaks led to consultations and mutual visits between producers, investigators and authorities. Further, Danish legislation was changed to make heat-treatment of frozen raspberries compulsory in professional catering establishments.

We analysed the reported duration of incubation and symptomatic periods of norovirus for a dataset of 1022 outbreaks, 64 of which reported data on the average incubation period and 87 on the average symptomatic period. We found the mean and median incubation periods for norovirus to be 32·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 30·9–34·6] hours and 33·5 (95% CI 32·0–34·0) hours, respectively. For the symptomatic period we found the mean and median to be 44·2 (95% CI 38·9–50·7) hours and 43·0 (95% CI 36·0–48·0) hours, respectively. We further investigated how these average periods were associated with several reported host, agent and environmental characteristics. We did not find any strong, biologically meaningful associations between the duration of incubation or symptomatic periods and the reported host, pathogen and environmental characteristics. Overall, we found that the distributions of incubation and symptomatic periods for norovirus infections are fairly constant and showed little differences with regard to the host, pathogen and environmental characteristics we analysed.

To understand the clinical epidemiology and molecular characteristics of human bocavirus (HBoV) infection in children with diarrhoea in Guangzhou, South China, we collected 1128 faecal specimens from children with diarrhoea from July 2010 to December 2012. HBoV and five other major enteric viruses were examined using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Human rotavirus (HRV) was the most prevalent pathogen, detected in 250 (22·2%) cases, followed by enteric adenovirus (EADV) in 76 (6·7%) cases, human astrovirus (HAstV) in 38 (3·4%) cases, HBoV in 17 (1·5%) cases, sapovirus (SaV) in 14 (1·2%) cases, and norovirus (NoV) in 9 (0·8%) cases. Co-infections were identified in 3·7% of the study population and 23·5% of HBoV-positive specimens. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 14 HBoV strains to be clustered into species HBoV1 with only minor variations among them. Overall, the detection of HBoV appears to partially contribute to the overall detection gap for enteric infections, single HBoV infection rarely results in severe clinical outcomes, and HBoV sequencing data appears to support conserved genomes across strains identified in this study.

Presence of Vibrio cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 in the waters of the rural area of Matlab, Bangladesh, was investigated with quantitative measurements performed with a portable flow cytometer. The relevance of this work relates to the testing of a field-adapted measurement protocol that might prove useful for cholera epidemic surveillance and for validation of mathematical models. Water samples were collected from different water bodies that constitute the hydrological system of the region, a well-known endemic area for cholera. Water was retrieved from ponds, river waters, and irrigation canals during an inter-epidemic time period. Each sample was filtered and analysed with a flow cytometer for a fast determination of V. cholerae cells contained in those environments. More specifically, samples were treated with O1- and O139-specific antibodies, which allowed precise flow-cytometry-based concentration measurements. Both serogroups were present in the environmental waters with a consistent dominance of V. cholerae O1. These results extend earlier studies where V. cholerae O1 and O139 were mostly detected during times of cholera epidemics using standard culturing techniques. Furthermore, our results confirm that an important fraction of the ponds’ host populations of V. cholerae are able to self-sustain even when cholera cases are scarce. Those contaminated ponds may constitute a natural reservoir for cholera endemicity in the Matlab region. Correlations of V. cholerae concentrations with environmental factors and the spatial distribution of V. cholerae populations are also discussed.

Although rare, typhoid fever cases acquired in the United States continue to be reported. Detection and investigation of outbreaks in these domestically acquired cases offer opportunities to identify chronic carriers. We searched surveillance and laboratory databases for domestically acquired typhoid fever cases, used a space–time scan statistic to identify clusters, and classified clusters as outbreaks or non-outbreaks. From 1999 to 2010, domestically acquired cases accounted for 18% of 3373 reported typhoid fever cases; their isolates were less often multidrug-resistant (2% vs. 15%) compared to isolates from travel-associated cases. We identified 28 outbreaks and two possible outbreaks within 45 space–time clusters of ⩾2 domestically acquired cases, including three outbreaks involving ⩾2 molecular subtypes. The approach detected seven of the ten outbreaks published in the literature or reported to CDC. Although this approach did not definitively identify any previously unrecognized outbreaks, it showed the potential to detect outbreaks of typhoid fever that may escape detection by routine analysis of surveillance data. Sixteen outbreaks had been linked to a carrier. Every case of typhoid fever acquired in a non-endemic country warrants thorough investigation. Space–time scan statistics, together with shoe-leather epidemiology and molecular subtyping, may improve outbreak detection.

Structural equation modelling and survey data were used to test determinants' influence on farmers' intentions towards Escherichia coli O157 on-farm control. Results suggest that farmers more likely to show willingness to spend money/time or vaccinate to control Escherichia coli O157 are those: who think farmers are most responsible for control; whose income depends more on opening farms to the public; with stronger disease control attitudes; affected by outbreaks; with better knowledge and more informed; with stronger perceptions of biosecurity measures’ practicality; using a health plan; who think farmers are the main beneficiaries of control; and whose farms are dairy rather than beef. The findings might suggest that farmers may implement on-farm controls for E. coli O157 if they identify a clear hazard and if there is greater knowledge of the safety and efficacy of the proposed controls.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 strains (n = 33) recovered from different food sources in Egypt were characterized using molecular assays to identify strain genotypes associated with various levels of pathogenic potential. Genotypic characterization included: lineage-specific polymorphism assay (LSPA-6), Shiga-toxin-encoding bacteriophage insertion site assay (SBI), clade 8 typing, Tir (A255 T) polymorphism, and variant analysis of Shiga toxin 2 gene (Stx2a and Stx2c), and anti-terminator Q genes (Q933 and Q21). Genotypes LI/II (76%), SBI 1 (60·6%), clade 8 (69·7%), Tir (255 T) (72·7%) and Stx2c (45·5%) were found to be significantly more frequent compared to other genetic markers in the strains analysed. Multivariable analysis revealed a significant association between LPSA-6 and clade types as well as Tir (A255 T). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report the characterization of these genetic markers in E. coli O157:H7 strains in the Middle East and Africa.

Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli are the most important bacterial causes of human gastroenteritis. Chicken has been recognized as a major source for human infection, whereas cattle might also contribute to a lesser extent. However, there is a paucity of information available regarding Campylobacter in Swiss cattle and their role for human campylobacteriosis. To gain more information on genotypes and antibiotic resistance of bovine C. jejuni and C. coli and on their contribution to human disease, 97 cattle isolates were analysed. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and flaB typing were applied and the gyrA and 23S rRNA genes were screened for point mutations responsible for quinolone and macrolide resistance, respectively. A total of 37 sequence types (STs) and 44 flaB types were identified, including two sequence types and five flaB types not previously described. Most common sequence types were ST21 (21%), ST61 (12%) and ST48 (11%). Only one isolate was macrolide resistant while 31% (n = 30) were quinolone resistant. Source attribution indicated chicken as the main source of human infection with cattle being second. In conclusion, cattle should not be underestimated as a potential source of human campylobacteriosis.

Consumption of poultry meat is considered as one of the main sources of human campylobacteriosis, and there is clearly a need for new surveillance and control measures based on quantitative data on Campylobacter spp. colonization dynamics in broiler chickens. We conducted four experimental infection trials, using four isolators during each infection trial to evaluate colonization of individual broiler chickens by Campylobacter jejuni over time. Individual and pooled faecal samples were obtained at days 4, 7 and 12 post-inoculation (p.i.) and caecal samples at day 12 p.i. There were large differences between broiler chickens in the number of C. jejuni in caecal and faecal material. Faecal samples of C. jejuni ranged from 4·0 to 9·4 log c.f.u./g and from 4·8 to 9·3 log c.f.u./g in the caeca. Faecal c.f.u./g decreased with time p.i. Most variation in c.f.u. for faecal and caecal samples was attributed to broiler chickens and a minor part to isolators, whereas infection trials did not affect the total variance. The results showed that pooled samples within isolators had lower c.f.u./g compared to the arithmetic mean of the individual samples. There was a significant correlation between faecal c.f.u./g at days 4 and 7 p.i., days 7 and 12 p.i. and for caecal and faecal c.f.u./g at day 12 p.i.

An evaluation was conducted to determine which syndromic surveillance tools complement traditional surveillance by serving as earlier indicators of influenza activity in Sweden. Web queries, medical hotline statistics, and school absenteeism data were evaluated against two traditional surveillance tools. Cross-correlation calculations utilized aggregated weekly data for all-age, nationwide activity for four influenza seasons, from 2009/2010 to 2012/2013. The surveillance tool indicative of earlier influenza activity, by way of statistical and visual evidence, was identified. The web query algorithm and medical hotline statistics performed equally well as each other and to the traditional surveillance tools. School absenteeism data were not reliable resources for influenza surveillance. Overall, the syndromic surveillance tools did not perform with enough consistency in season lead nor in earlier timing of the peak week to be considered as early indicators. They do, however, capture incident cases before they have formally entered the primary healthcare system.

We used the winter of 2009–2010, which had minimal influenza circulation due to the earlier 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, to test the accuracy of ecological trend methods used to estimate influenza-related deaths and hospitalizations. We aggregated weekly counts of person-time, all-cause deaths, and hospitalizations for pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/circulatory conditions from seven healthcare systems. We predicted the incidence of the outcomes during the winter of 2009–2010 using three different methods: a cyclic (Serfling) regression model, a cyclic regression model with viral circulation data (virological regression), and an autoregressive, integrated moving average model with viral circulation data (ARIMAX). We compared predicted non-influenza incidence with actual winter incidence. All three models generally displayed high accuracy, with prediction errors for death ranging from −5% to −2%. For hospitalizations, errors ranged from −10% to −2% for pneumonia/influenza and from −3% to 0% for respiratory/circulatory. The Serfling and virological models consistently outperformed the ARIMAX model. The three methods tested could predict incidence of non-influenza deaths and hospitalizations during a winter with negligible influenza circulation. However, meaningful mis-estimation of the burden of influenza can still result with outcomes for which the contribution of influenza is low, such as all-cause mortality.

Several epidemiological studies suggest a possible involvement of viral infection in the development of epilepsy. While recent research from in vitro studies increasingly supports the role of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) in the pathogenesis of epilepsy, little is known about the role of other viral infections such as influenza. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), we conducted a matched case-control analysis to assess the association between GP-diagnosed influenza infections and the risk of developing an incident diagnosis of epilepsy. During the study period 11 244 incident epilepsy cases and 44 976 matched control patients were identified. Prior exposure to influenza was reported in 7·5% of epilepsy cases and 6·7% of controls [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1·12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·03–1·22]. Prior history of ‘complicated influenza’, i.e. influenza associated with a possible super-infection, was associated with a slightly increased epilepsy risk (aOR 1·64, 95% CI 1·10–2·46), particularly if recorded within the 2 months preceding the epilepsy diagnosis (aOR 6·03, 95% CI 1·10–33·2). Our findings suggest that prior influenza exposure does not appear to materially alter the risk of developing epilepsy. By contrast, influenza episodes accompanied by complications were associated with a slightly increased epilepsy risk.

An unusually long-lasting community-acquired outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease (LD) occurred in the inhabitants of a town in northern Italy from 2005 to 2008. Overall, 43 cases were diagnosed including five deaths. Hundreds of water samples were collected for Legionella isolation but only two clinical samples were obtained. Clinical strains were ST23 as were environmental isolates detected in most Legionella-positive patients' homes and those from a public fountain. Although no Legionella was found in the municipal water mains, a continuous chlorination was applied in 2008. This action resulted in a halving of cases, although incidence remained tenfold higher than the Italian average incidence until the end of 2013, when it dropped to the expected rate. Retrospective analyses of prevalent wind direction suggested that a hidden cooling tower could have been the main cause of this uncommon outbreak, highlighting the importance of implementation of cooling tower registers in supporting LD investigations.

In England, hospital admissions for severe staphylococcal boils and abscesses trebled between 1989 and 2004. We investigated this trend using routine data from primary and secondary care. We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large primary-care database and national data on hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Time trends in the incidence of primary-care consultations for boils and abscesses were estimated for 1995–2010. HES data were used to calculate age-standardized hospital admission rates for boils, abscesses and cellulitis. The incidence of boil or abscess was 450 [95% confidence interval (CI) 447–452] per 100 000 person-years and increased slightly over the study period (incidence rate ratio 1·005, 95% CI 1·004–1·007). The rate of repeat consultation for a boil or abscess increased from 66 (95% CI 59–73) per 100 000 person-years in 1995 to peak at 97 (95% CI 94–101) per 100 000 person-years in 2006, remaining stable thereafter. Hospital admissions for abscesses, carbuncles, furuncles and cellulitis almost doubled, from 123 admissions per 100 000 in 1998/1999 to 236 admissions per 100 000 in 2010/2011. Rising hospitalization and recurrence rates set against a background of stable community incidence suggests increased disease severity. Patients may be experiencing more severe and recurrent staphylococcal skin disease with limited treatment options.

The aims of this study were to identify Staphylococcus aureus nasal colonization prevalence, behavioural risk factors, and to determine staphylococcal protein A (spa) types in community-based injection drug users (IDUs). Nasal swabs were collected and methicillin susceptibility testing and spa/SCCmec typing were performed on S. aureus isolates. Generalized estimating equations were used to report adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Of the 440 participants, 24·1% were colonized and 5·7% had methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). Colonization was associated with age, employment/marital status, and the presence of scabs but not with sexually transmitted disease co-infection, HIV status, antibiotic use, hospitalization, or drug treatment programme participation. The USA300 MRSA clone spa types were most common, but 15/49 spa types were new to one of the international databases. Community-based IDUs appear to have different risk factors compared to IDUs from clinical studies. In addition, the number of newly identified spa types indicates a diverse, understudied population.

Paediatricians recognize that using the time-dependent community-acquired vs. hospital-acquired bloodstream infection (BSI) dichotomy to guide empirical treatment no longer distinguishes between causative pathogens due to the emergence of healthcare-associated BSIs. However, paediatric epidemiological evidence of the aetiology of BSIs in relation to hospital admission in England is lacking. For 12 common BSI-causing pathogens in England, timing of laboratory reports of positive paediatric (3 months to 5 years) bacterial blood isolates were linked to in-patient hospital data and plotted in relation to hospital admission. The majority (88·6%) of linked pathogens were isolated <2 days after hospital admission, including pathogens widely regarded as hospital acquired: Enterococcus spp. (67·2%) and Klebsiella spp. (88·9%). Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, group A streptococcus and Salmonella spp. were unlikely to cause hospital-acquired BSI. Pathogens commonly associated with hospital-acquired BSI are being isolated <2 days after hospital admission alongside pathogens commonly associated with community-acquired BSI. We confirm that timing of blood samples alone does not differentiate between bacterial pathogens. Additional factors including clinical patient characteristics and healthcare contact should be considered to help predict the causative pathogen and guide empirical antibiotic therapy.