The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources states as part of its objective the maintenance of ecological relationships and the prevention of irreversible changes to the ecosystem. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) has implemented an Ecosystem Monitoring Programme (CEMP) for the Antarctic marine environment to give effect to this requirement. The design phase of the programme took three years. The programme has been fully implemented since 1987 and involves monitoring selected predator, prey and environmental indicators of ecosystem performance. The central aim of the programme is the detection of changes in these indicators and the interpretation as to whether these changes are due to natural events or the harvesting of marine living resources. The core of the programme is the acquisition, centralised storage and analysis of standardised monitoring data combined with a strong emphasis on empirical and modelling based research. This both modifies the monitoring approach in line with changing requirements and creates a sound scientific background against which to test the effects of management options on components of the Antarctic ecosystem. The development of procedures for translating monitoring results into management advice is a critical part of the programme. Management takes the form of the regulation of fishing activities. Since 1987 CEMP has collected data on six bird and seal species at 15 sites around the Antarctic. Up to 14 parameters of predator performance and 10 parameters of prey and environmental performance are collected at each site. The data sets collected by CEMP form an extremely powerful tool for understanding and managing the Antarctic marine ecosystem.

Lake sediments in the Larsemann Hills contain a great diversity of biological and physical markers from which past environments can be inferred. In order to determine the timing of environmental changes it is essential to have accurate dating of sediments. We used radiometric (210Pb and 137Cs), radiocarbon (AMS 14C) and uranium series (238U) methods to date cores from eleven lakes. These were sampled on coastal to inland transects across the two main peninsulas, Broknes and Stornes, together with a single sample from the Bolingen Islands. Radiometric dating of recent sediments yielded 210Pb levels below acceptable detection limits. However, a relatively well-defined peak in 137Cs gave a date marker which corresponds to the fallout maximum from the atmospheric testing of atomic weapons in 1964/65. Radiocarbon (AMS 14C) measurements showed stratigraphical consistency in the age-depth sequences and undisturbed laminae in some cores provides evidence that the sediments have remained undisturbed by glacial action. In addition, freshwater surface sediments were found to be in near-equilibrium with modern 14CO2 and not influenced by radiocarbon contamination processes. This dating program, together with geomorphological records of ice flow directions and glacial sediments, indicates that parts of Broknes were ice-free throughout the Last Glacial Maximum and that some lakes have existed continuously since at least 44 ka bp. Attempts to date sediments older than 44 ka bp using 128U dating were inconclusive. However, supporting evidence for Broknes being ice-free is provided by an Optically Stimulated Luminescence date from a glaciofluvial deposit. In contrast, Stornes only became ice-free in the mid to late Holocene. This contrasting glacial history results from the Dålk Glacier which diverts ice around Broknes. Lakes on Broknes and some offshore islands therefore contain the oldest known lacustrine sediment records from eastern Antarctica, with the area providing an ice-free oasis and refuge for plants and animals throughout the Last Glacial Maximum. These sediments are therefore well placed to unravel a unique limnological sequence of environmental and climate changes in East Antarctica from the late Pleistocene to the present. This information may help better constrain models of current climate changes and ensure the adequate protection of these lakes and their catchments from the impacts of recent human occupation.

The role of fish in the Antarctic food web in inshore and offshore waters is analysed, taking as an example the coastal marine communities of the southern Scotia Arc (South Orkney Islands and South Shetland Islands) and the west Antarctic Peninsula. Inshore, the ecological role of demersal fish is more important than that of krill. There, demersal fish are major consumers of benthos and also feed on zooplankton (mainly krill in summer). They are links between lower and upper levels of the food web and are common prey of other fish, birds and seals. Offshore, demersal fish depend less on benthos and feed more on zooplankton (mainly krill) and nekton, and are less accessible as prey of birds and seals. There, pelagic fish (especially lantern fish) are more abundant than inshore and play an important role in the energy flow from macrozooplankton to higher trophic levels (seabirds and seals). Through the higher fish predators, energy is transferred to land in the form of fish remains, pellets (birds), regurgitation and faeces (birds and seals). However, in the general context of the Antarctic marine ecosystem, krill (Euphausia superba) plays the central role in the food web because it is the main food source in terms of biomass for most of the high level predators from demersal fish up to whales. This has no obvious equivalent in other marine ecosystems. In Antarctic offshore coastal and oceanic waters the greatest proportion of energy from the ecosystem is transferred to land directly through krill consumers, such as flying birds, penguins, and seals. Beside krill, the populations of fish in the Antarctic Ocean are the second most important element for higher predators, in particular the energy-rich pelagic Myctophidae in open waters and the pelagic Antarctic silver fish (Pleuragramma antarcticum) in the high Antarctic zone. Although the occurrence of these pelagic fish inshore has been poorly documented, their abundance in neritic waters could be higher than previously believed.

The Permian–Triassic boundary within the Amery Group of the Lambert Graben is placed at the contact between the Bainmedart Coal Measures and overlying Flagstone Bench Formation, based on the first regular occurrence of Lunatisporites pellucidus and the first appearance of Aratrisporites and Lepidopteris species. The Permian-Triassic boundary is marked by the extinction of glossopterid and cordaitalean gymnosperms, and by the disappearance or extreme decline of a range of gymnospermous and pteridophytic palynomorph groups. Earliest Triassic macrofloras and palynofloras of the Flagstone Bench Formation are dominated by peltasperms and lycophytes; corystosperms, conifers, and ferns become increasingly common elements of assemblages through the Lower Triassic part of the formation and dominate floras of the Upper Triassic strata. The sedimentary transition across this boundary is conformable but marked by a termination of coal deposits; overlying lowermost Triassic sediments contain only carbonaceous siltstones. Typical red-bed facies are not developed until at least 100 m above the base of the Flagstone Bench Formation, in strata containing ?Middle Triassic palynofloras. Across Gondwana the diachronous disappearance of coal deposits and appearance of red-beds is suggestive of a response to shifting climatic belts, resulting in progressively drier seasonal conditions at successively higher palaeolatitudes during the Late Permian to Middle Triassic. The abrupt and approximately synchronous replacement of plant groups at the Permian–Triassic boundary suggests that factors independent of, or additional to, climate change were responsible for the turnover in terresrtial floras.

The marine resources of the Antarctic region are of global significance. In managing Southern Ocean marine resources, especially fisheries, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) has adopted principles that aim: to balance harvesting and conservation; to protect the needs of dependent species, and to avoid changes that are irreversible in 20–30 years. CCAMLR has pioneered ecosystem approaches to fishery and environmental management, through the incorporation of precaution and uncertainty into its management procedures and by establishing an ecosystem monitoring programme using indicator species and processes. This pioneering application of precautionary and ecosystem approaches in the management of harvesting has met with some success, notably in applying conservative yield models for toothfish and krill stocks and in establishing strict rules for undertaking new and exploratory fisheries. However, toothfish management has been recently compromised by Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing which is driven by forces outside the Southern Ocean. Southern Ocean harvestable resources are also subject to other global forces such as environmental changes, and their management systems remain very vulnerable to rapid shifts in worldwide fishery economics, and to inadequate management in adjacent areas, particularly high seas. CCAMLR needs quickly to develop the basis of more flexible and effective management to cater for rapid shifts in capacity and demand. The complementary task, however, is to raise the management standard of other Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs) to those of CCAMLR if global high seas marine resources are to be sustainable for the rest of this century.

The meteorological characteristics and hydrological response of an extreme warm, and cold summer in the McMurdo Dry Valleys are compared. The driver behind the warmer summer conditions was the occurrence of down-valley winds, which were not present during the colder summer. Occurrence of the summer down-valley winds coincided with lower than typical mean sea level pressure in the Ross Sea region. There was no significant difference in the amount of solar radiation received during the two summers. Compared to the cold summer, glaciological and hydrological response to the warm summer in Taylor Valley included significant glacier mass loss, and 3- to nearly 6000-fold increase in annual streamflow. Lake levels decreased slightly during the cold summer, and increased between 0.54 and 1.01 m during the warm summer, effectively erasing the prior 14 years of lake level lowering in a period of three months. Lake level rise during the warm summer was shown to be strongly associated with and increase in degree days above freezing at higher elevations. We suggest that strong summer down-valley winds may have been responsible for the generation of large glacial lakes during the Last Glacial Maximum when ice core records recorded annual temperatures significantly colder than present.

We consider how Antarctic seals may respond to changes in climate, realizing that anthropogenic alteration of food webs will influence these responses. The species considered include the ice-obligate - crabeater (Lobodon carcinophaga), Weddell (Leptonychotes weddellii), Ross (Ommataphoca rossii) and leopard (Hydrurga leptonyx) seal - and the ice-tolerant Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) and southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina). The data analysed are from long-term censuses of Weddell seals in McMurdo Sound (1997–2006), and of Weddell, fur and elephant seals at Arthur Harbour, Antarctic Peninsula (1974–2005). After considering their responses to recent changes in environmental features, as well as projected and current changes to their habitat our conclusions are that the distribution and abundance of 1) crabeater and Weddell seals will be negatively affected by changes in the extent, persistence and type of annual sea ice, 2) Ross and leopard seal will be the least negatively influenced by changes in pack ice characteristics, although, as may be the case for crabeater and Weddell, population size and distribution may be altered through changes in food web dynamics, and 3) southern elephant and fur seals will respond in ways opposite to the pack ice species, but could also be influenced most immediately by changes in their food resources due to factors other than climate.

Early conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by snow and ice. As GCMs developed, however, the expected enhanced sensitivity has been more robust in the North Polar Region than the South Polar Region. Some recent increased-CO2 simulations, for instance, show little change in Southern Ocean sea ice extent and thickness and much less warming in the Southern Ocean region than in the sea ice regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Observations show a highly variable Southern Ocean ice cover that decreased significantly in the 1970s but, overall, has increased since the late 1970s. The increases are non-uniform, and in fact decreases occurred in the last three years of the 1979–2002 satellite record highlighted here. Regionally, the positive trends since the late 1970s are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas, a pattern that appears in greater spatial detail in maps of trends in the length of the sea ice season. These patterns correspond well with patterns of temperature trends, but there is a substantial way to go before they are understood (and can be modelled) in the full context of global change.

The terrestrial vegetation in Antarctica is restricted to small, very isolated, ice-free areas on the continent and on the islands adjacent to the Peninsula region. Lichens, a symbiosis between a fungus and an alga or cyanobacterium, form the most prominent component in the vegetation. They have the greatest number of species compared with other cryptogamic and unicellular organisms. They are able to colonize all types of solid substrata and have a low mineral nutrient demand. Their physiological vigour is derived from high freezing tolerance and the ability to be photosynthetically activated by water vapour uptake from snow at temperatures as low as c. -20°C. Long-term monitoring in their natural habitats demonstrates that lichens are photosynthetically active at suboptimal temperatures. Locally, however, they can benefit from meltwater on insolated rocks, but only for short periods in early summer. Although at this time they may be exposed to substrate temperatures of > 20°C and strong light they do not suffer from photostress. If, in winter, lichens are covered and kept dark by snow with temperatures close to 0°C, lichens enter a negative carbon balance. This effect may be relevant to lichens under conditions of global or regional warming.

Historical observations of the large-scale flow and frontal structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Scotia Sea region were combined with the wind-induced surface Ekman transport to produce a composite flow field. This was used with a Lagrangian model to investigate transport of Antarctic krill. Particle displacements from known krill spawning areas that result from surface Ekman drift, a composite large-scale flow, and the combination of the two were calculated. Surface Ekman drift alone only transports particles a few kilometres over the 150-day krill larval development time. The large-scale composite flow moves particles several hundreds of kilometres over the same time, suggesting this is the primary transport mechanism. An important contribution of the surface Ekman drift on particles released along the continental shelf break west of the Antarctic Peninsula is moving them north-northeast into the high-speed core of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front, which then transports the particles to South Georgia in about 140–160 days. Similar particle displacement calculations using surface flow fields obtained from the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model do not show overall transport from the Antarctic Peninsula to South Georgia due to the inaccurate position of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front in the simulated circulation fields. The particle transit times obtained with the composite large-scale flow field are consistent with regional abundances of larval krill developmental stages collected in the Scotia Sea. These results strongly suggest that krill populations west of the Antarctic Peninsula provide the source for the krill populations found around South Georgia.

Simultaneous, but contrary, decadal-scale changes in population trajectories of two penguin species in the western Pacific and Ross Sea sectors of the Southern Ocean, during the early/mid-1970s and again during 1988–89, correspond to changes in weather and sea ice patterns. These in turn are related to shifts in the semi-annual and Antarctic oscillations. Populations of the two ecologically dissimilar penguin species - Adélie Pygoscelis adeliae and emperor Aptenodytes forsteri - have been tallied annually since the 1950s making these the longest biological datasets for the Antarctic. Both species are obligates of sea ice and, therefore, allowing for the demographic lags inherent in the response of long-lived species to habitat or environmental variation, the proximate mechanisms responsible for the shifts involved changes in coastal wind strength and air and sea temperatures, which in turn affected the seasonal formation and decay of sea ice and polynyas. The latter probably affected such rates as the proportion of adults breeding and ultimately the reproductive output of populations in ways consistent with the two species' opposing sea ice needs. Corresponding patterns for the mid-1970s shift were reflected also in ice-obligate Weddell seal Leptonychotes weddelli populations and the structure of shallow-water sponge communities in the Ross Sea. The 1988–89 shift, by which time many more datasets had become available, was reflected among several ice-frequenting vertebrate species from all Southern Ocean sectors. Therefore, the patterns most clearly identified in the Pacific Sector were apparently spread throughout the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean.

Data from six sites in Victoria Land (72–77°S) investigating co-variation in soil communities (microbial and invertebrate) with biogeochemical properties showthe influence of soil properties on habitat suitability varied among local landscapes as well as across climate gradients. Species richness of metazoan invertebrates (Nematoda, Tardigrada and Rotifera) was similar to previous descriptions in this region, though identification of three cryptic nematode species of Eudorylaimus through DNA analysis contributed to the understanding of controls over habitat preferences for individual species. Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis profiles revealed unexpectedly high diversity of bacteria. Distribution of distinct bacterial communities was associated with specific sites in northern and southern Victoria Land, as was the distribution of nematode and tardigrade species. Variation in soil metazoan communities was related to differences in soil organic matter, while bacterial diversity and community structure were not strongly correlated with any single soil property. There were no apparent correlations between metazoan and bacterial diversity, suggesting that controls over distribution and habitat suitability are different for bacterial and metazoan communities. Our results imply that top-down controls over bacterial diversity mediated by their metazoan consumers are not significant determinants of bacterial community structure and biomass in these ecosystems.

The modern benthic fauna of the Antarctic continental shelf is characterized by the lack of active, skeleton-breaking (durophagous) predators such as crabs, lobsters and many fish, and the dominance in many areas of epifaunal suspension feeders. It has often been remarked that these ecological characteristics give the fauna a distinctly Palaeozoic feel, with the assumption that it may be an evolutionary relic. We now know that this is not so, and fossil evidence shows clearly that many of the taxa and life-styles that are absent now were previously present. The modern fauna has been shaped by a number of factors, important among which have been oceanographic changes and the onset of Cenozoic glaciation. Sea-water cooling, and periodic fragmentation of ranges and bathymetric shifts in distribution driven by variability in the size and extent of the continental ice cap on Milankovitch frequencies will all have caused both extinction and allopatric speciation. The modern glacial setting with relatively low terrestrial impact away from immediate coastal regions, and scouring by icebergs are the key factors influencing the ecology and population dynamics for the modern Antarctic benthos.

We extend a previous analysis of Antarctic tour ship vessel traffic to include 20 years of commercial cruise activity (1993/94–2012/13) using recently digitized historical records and new data on vessel landings since 2008/09. Using tourism statistics from 1989/90–2013/14, we also examine trends in passenger numbers, landings and the nationalities of passengers travelling to the Antarctic Peninsula region. This study represents the most comprehensive long-term perspective on how tour ship activity has changed spatially and temporally over a period in which visitation has grown ten-fold. Passenger landings and marine traffic are highly concentrated at a few specific locations, particularly along the Peninsula’s south-western coast. Antarctic tourism activity is closely correlated with measures of economic activity in those countries contributing the largest numbers of visitors to the region. The nationalities of Antarctic tourists have shifted over the years, particularly with respect to an increasing number of visitors from China. Since emerging markets for Antarctic travel are probably far from saturated, interest in travelling to Antarctica will probably continue to grow. Understanding visitation patterns will focus efforts to monitor potential anthropogenic impacts and inform management decisions regarding activities in and around the Antarctic region.

The Weddell Sea region arguably represents the largest unknown in quantifying the Antarctic contribution to the global water balance following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This paper reviews the available onshore and offshore geological evidence constraining the volume of formerly expanded ice in the Weddell Sea embayment, focusing on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and provides a preliminary reconstruction of the WAIS during the LGM. Dating control is generally poor and so our WAIS reconstruction is based on the assumption that the evidence of most recent ice sheet expansion dates to the LGM. Our reconstruction is intended to provide initial constraints with which glaciological models can be compared and shows grounded ice extent, flow directions, and ice surface elevations. Both marine and terrestrial geological evidence imply a substantial expansion of ice in the Weddell Sea embayment. Marine evidence shows that ice sheets were grounded in Crary Trough in the southern Weddell Sea and on the Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf during the LGM. Inland, the ice thickened by between 400 m (Ellsworth and Palmer Land) and 1900 m (Ellsworth Mountains). Ice core evidence suggests that the interior of the ice sheet remained the same or even thinned relative to present. The main unknowns now concern the exact location of the grounding line on some sectors of the shelf and the timing of ice sheet grounding and retreat. The limited radiocarbon data that exist on the eastern shelf indicates that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreated from the shelf prior to the LGM.

A census of the breeding population of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) at South Georgia was carried out during the 1990/91 breeding season. Using counts of adult females ashore at the breeding grounds during the pupping period, together with corrections for the likelihood of a female being ashore at a census and for pregnancy rate (71% in 1990/91), pup production was estimated as 269 000 (95% confidence intervals 188 000-350000). The breeding population in 1990/91 was reduced at long-term study sites probably because of limited food availability. Data from these sites were used to estimate the pup production of the population had 1990/91 been a typical year. Based on values from 1983/84 to 1990/91, pup production in 1990/91 would have been 378000 (se=19100) if it had been an average year. The annual increase in pup production from 1976/77 to 1990/91 has declined to 9.8% since the initial period of population expansion in the 1950s and 1960s. Increased population size has led to an expansion of the breeding range at South Georgia.

An extensive analogue database of 60 MHz radio-echo sounding records of Antarctica (covering 50% of the ice sheet) is held at the Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge. This database was analysed in order to determine the presence and location of Antarctic sub-glacial lakes. In total, 77 sub-glacial lake-type records were identified, 13 more than detected in previous studies. An inventory of these sub-glacial lakes includes geographical coordinates, minimum length and overlying ice thickness for each lake. Information concerning the location of these lakes indicates that the majority (~70%) are found in the proximity of ice divides at Dome C and Ridge B within East Antarctica.

Analysis of a 1.5 m thick sediment sequence from Midge Lake, Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, shows that the lake and its catchment have undergone significant changes during the last 4000 years. Radiocarbon dating (AMS), sediment lithology, and microfossil analyses indicate that the lake was deglaciated over 4000 14C years ago. Distinct peaks in accumulation rates of sediment, Pediastrum algae, pollen and spores, as well as changes in the diatom assemblage, suggest significant environmental changes between ca 3200 and 2700 y BP. These changes are interpreted as reflecting a milder and more humid, maritime climate. The increased humidity can explain independent observations of glacier growth during this period. The combined data also indicate that between ca 1500 and 500 y BP the area might have experienced more continental conditions with slightly colder and drier climate than today. Since the 14C dates from the Midge Lake sediments are regarded as reliable and the sediment sequence is rich in tephra layers this sediment sequence will be critical for a forthcoming tephra chronology of the region.

Organisms have a limited number of responses that enhance survival in changing environments. They can: 1. Cope within existing physiological flexibility; 2. Adapt to changing conditions; or 3. Migrate to sites that allow survival. Species inhabiting coastal seabed sites around Antarctica have poorer physiological capacities to deal with change than species elsewhere. They die when temperatures are raised by only 5–10°C above the annual average, and many species lose the ability to perform essential functions, e.g. swimming in scallops or burying in infaunal bivalve molluscs when temperatures are raised only 2–3°C. The ability to adapt, or evolve new characters to changing conditions depends, at least in part, on generation time. Antarctic benthic species grow slowly and develop at rates often x5–x10 slower than similar temperate species. They also live to great age, and exhibit deferred maturity. Longer generation times reduce the opportunities to produce novel mutations, and result in poorer capacities to adapt to change. Intrinsic capacities to colonize new sites and migrate away from deteriorating conditions depend on adult abilities to locomote over large distances, or for reproductive stages to drift for extended periods. The slow development of Antarctic benthic species means their larvae do spend extended periods in the water column. However, whereas most continents have coastlines extending over a wide range of latitude, Antarctica is almost circular in outline, is isolated from other oceans by the circumpolar current, and its coastline covers few degrees of latitude. Thus in a warming environment there are fewer places to migrate to. On all three major criteria Antarctic benthic species appear less capable than species elsewhere of responding to change in ways that can enhance survival.

Data on the growth (20 species) and productivity (19 species) of Antarctic and subantarctic macrobenthos were compiled from published and unpublished sources. Differences in the production/biomass (P/B) ratio between Antarctic, Arctic and non-polar populations were examined using a set of 363 data arrays (327 non-polar, 26 Antarctic, 10 Arctic). Each array contained annual P/B ratio, mean individual body mass, geographical latitude, water depth, bottom water temperature and the nominal variables TAXON (Mollusca, Crustacea, Polychaeta, Echinodermata) and REGION (Antarctic, Arctic, non-polar). The P/B ratio was found to vary with body mass, taxon, temperature and water depth. P/B ratios of Antarctic and Arctic populations were significantly lower than those of non-polar populations. For Antarctic populations this difference could be explained completely by the effects of temperature and water depth. The strikingly high biomass of many Antarctic benthic communities is probably related to adaptations to low and oscillating food levels, and particularly to the low maintenance energy requirement associated with the low ambient temperature.