In this paper, asymptotic estimates for the blocking probability of a call pertaining to a given route in a large multi-rate circuit-switched network are given. Concentrating on low load and critical load conditions, these estimates are essentially derived by using probability change techniques applied to the distribution of the number of occupied links. Such estimates for blocking probabilities are also given a uniform expression applicable to both load regimes. This uniform expression is numerically validated via simple examples.

We consider a regenerative queueing process that is (partially) generated by an embedded phase-type renewal process. We show that, under some specified conditions, a performance measure is an analytic function of the rate of the renewal process. We then develop several methods for deriving its Taylor polynomial in the renewal rate. These polynomials are asymptotically exact as the rate decreases, and, thus, are called light traffic approximations of the performance measure. We show via examples that these new methods are not only more efficient compared to existing ones, but also more versatile due to their general settings, such as to conduct perturbation analysis and study transient behavior.

A continuous-time threshold autoregressive process of order two (CTAR(2)) is constructed as the first component of the unique (in law) weak solution of a stochastic differential equation. The Cameron–Martin–Girsanov formula and a random time-change are used to overcome the difficulties associated with possible discontinuities and degeneracies in the coefficients of the stochastic differential equation. A sequence of approximating processes that are well-suited to numerical calculations is shown to converge in distribution to a solution of this equation, provided the initial state vector has finite second moments. The approximating sequence is used to fit a CTAR(2) model to percentage relative daily changes in the Australian All Ordinaries Index of share prices by maximization of the ‘Gaussian likelihood'. The advantages of non-linear relative to linear time series models are briefly discussed and illustrated by means of the forecasting performance of the model fitted to the All Ordinaries Index.

A sequence of irreducible closed queueing networks is considered in this paper. We obtain that the queue length processes can be approximated by reflected Brownian motions. Using these approximations, we get rates of convergence of the distributions of queue lengths.

We introduce a batch service discipline, called assemble-transfer batch service, for continuous-time open queueing networks with batch movements. Under this service discipline a requested number of customers is simultaneously served at a node, and transferred to another node as, possibly, a batch of different size, if there are sufficient customers there; the node is emptied otherwise. We assume a Markovian setting for the arrival process, service times and routing, where batch sizes are generally distributed.

Under the assumption that extra batches arrive while nodes are empty, and under a stability condition, it is shown that the stationary distribution of the queue length has a geometric product form over the nodes if and only if certain conditions are satisfied for the extra arrivals. This gives a new class of queueing networks which have tractable stationary distributions, and simultaneously shows that the product form provides a stochastic upper bound for the stationary distribution of the corresponding queueing network without the extra arrivals.

A criterion is given for the existence of a stationary and causal multivariate integer-valued autoregressive process, MGINAR(p). The autocovariance function of this process being identical to the autocovariance function of a standard Gaussian MAR(p), we deduce that the MGINAR(p) process is nothing but a MAR(p) process. Consequently, the spectral density is directly found and gives good insight into the stochastic structure of a MGINAR(p). The estimation of parameters of the model, as well as the forecasting of the series, is discussed.

An aggregation technique of ‘near complete decomposable' Markovian systems has been proposed by Courtois [3]. It is an approximate method in many cases, except for some queuing networks, so the error between the exact and the approximate solution is an important problem. We know that the error is O(ε), where ε is defined as the maximum coupling between aggregates. Some authors developed techniques to obtain a O(ε k) error with k > 1 error with k > 1, while others developed a technique called ‘bounded aggregation’. All these techniques use linear algebra tools and do not utilize the fact that the steady-state probability vector represents the distribution of a random variable. In this work we propose a stochastic approach and we give a method to obtain stochastic bounds on all possible Markovian approximations of the two main dynamics: short-term and long-term dynamics.

We consider some single-server queues with general service disciplines, where the family of the queueing processes are parameterized by the service time distributions. Through the smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA) technique, we present under some mild conditions a unified approach to give the strongly consistent estimator for the gradient of the steady-state mean sojourn time with respect to the parameter of service time distributions, provided that it exists. Although the implementation of the SPA requires the additional sub-paths in general, the derived estimator is given as suitable for single-run computation. Simulation results are presented for queues with non-preemptive and preemptive-resume priority disciplines which demonstrate the performance of our estimators.

The problem of estimating the integral of a stochastic process from observations at a finite number N of sampling points has been considered by various authors. Recently, Benhenni and Cambanis (1992) studied this problem for processes with mean 0 and Hölder index K + ½, K ; ℕ These results are here extended to processes with arbitrary Hölder index. The estimators built here are linear in the observations and do not require the a priori knowledge of the smoothness of the process. If the process satisfies a Hölder condition with index s in quadratic mean, we prove that the rate of convergence of the mean square error is N2s+1 as N goes to ∞, and build estimators that achieve this rate.

For sequences of i.i.d. random variables whose common tail 1 – F is regularly varying at infinity wtih an unknown index –α < 0, it is well known that the Hill estimator is consistent for α–1 and usually asymptotically normally distributed. However, because the Hill estimator is a function of k = k(n), the number of upper order statistics used and which is only subject to the conditions k →∞, k/n → 0, its use in practice is problematic since there are few reliable guidelines about how to choose k. The purpose of this paper is to make the use of the Hill estimator more reliable through an averaging technique which reduces the asymptotic variance. As a direct result the range in which the smoothed estimator varies as a function of k decreases and the successful use of the esimator is made less dependent on the choice of k. A tail empirical process approach is used to prove the weak convergence of a process closely related to the Hill estimator. The smoothed version of the Hill estimator is a functional of the tail empirical process.