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6311 results in Environmental policy, Economics and Law

Page 184 of 316

  • Chapter Nine - Water Complexity and Physics- Guided Data Mining

  • from Part II - TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, MODELS AND ANALYSES TO RESOLVE COMPLEX WATER PROBLEMS
    • By Udit Bhatia, Sustainability & Data Sciences Laboratory, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, Devashish Kumar, Sustainability & Data Sciences Laboratory, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, Evan Kodra, Sustainability & Data Sciences Laboratory, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, Auroop R. Ganguly, Sustainability & Data Sciences Laboratory, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 155-178

  • Summary

    Abstract

    Climate projections, especially at decadal to century scales, rely on physics- based computer models. While the models have generated useful information about global warming and hydrology, “the sad truth of climate science is that the most crucial information is the least credible” (Schiermeier 2010). The possible reasons include intrinsic variability of the climate system as well as our lack of understanding of the physics and the inability to include known physics within the current generation of computer models. Data sciences, ranging from statistics and signal processing to machine learning and nonlinear dynamics, continue to help fill some of the crucial gaps in climate. We hypothesize that these data science solutions can be improved if they are driven by physical knowledge, especially when this knowledge cannot be incorporated in current climate models because they are incomplete or incompatible. We have called this paradigm Physics-Guided Data Mining (PGDM) (Ganguly et al. 2014). In addition to motivating and introducing PGDM, this chapter presents three case studies on precipitation, based on our prior work. Statistical downscaling, which generates higher- resolution projections from lower- resolution model simulations, benefits from a blend of sparse learning techniques with physically motivated covariates (Das et al. 2014; 2015). Multimodal uncertainty quantification shows the potential to improve when physical relations with ancillary variables are considered together with historical skills and future consensus, within a Bayesian framework (Ganguly et al. 2013; Kodra 2014a; Smith et al. 2009). Characterization of internal variability and associated model performance benefit from data- driven analysis of multi- initial condition ensembles, combined with physical understanding of oceanic indices and their initializations (Kodra et al. 2012). The proposed PGDM paradigm, illustrated through our prior publications, shows the potential to bridge crucial knowledge gaps in climate science and help in translation to water resources impacts.

    The Grand Water Challenge

    Our planet and society continue to be critically shaped by water. In the 21st century and beyond, water is without question among the major clear and present challenges facing the world (Hall et al. 2014). Water in the atmospheric column is perhaps the most important of all the greenhouse gases and causes the most significant uncertainties in our understanding and projections of climate variability and change. Water in the oceans is critical for the survival of the majority of species while water towers in glaciers sustain riverine systems.

  • Chapter Ten - The Nature of Enabling Conditions of Transboundary Water Management: Learning from the Negotiation of the Indus and Jordan Basin Treaties

  • from Part III - CASE STUDIES
    • By Enamul Choudhury, Department of Urban Affairs and Geography, Wright State University, Ohio, USA
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 181-202

  • Summary

    Abstract

    The complexity of transboundary water management lies in the dynamics of competition and cooperation that arise from the interactions and feedback among variables, processes, actors and institutions that share a basin or aquifer. The nature of complexity is, however, contingent on a variety of contextual characteristics of the interactions as well as the natural characteristics of the basin. Given the complexity of transboundary (hereafter TB) water management and its contingent manifestations, it is important to understand the means of interaction that can equitably explore and distribute the benefits of the basin for the riparians as well as keep its availability sustainable for posterity. Among different frameworks, mediated negotiation has shown resilience to initiate, affect and sustain interaction among riparians even when they remain hostile to each other on other issues. This chapter identifies three enabling conditions that make transboundary negotiation effective in managing complex and prolonged water disputes. In advancing the argument the chapter also makes the point that resiliency of these three enabling conditions rests on operationalizing the values of equity and sustainability in contextspecific ways. For empirical illustration of the efficacy of these enabling conditions, the chapter draws upon the case analyses of negotiation that led to the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan and the 1994 peace treaty between Israel and Jordan.

    Introduction: The Complexity of TransboundaryWater Management

    Transboundary water management is complex because of the problems of water allocation in quantities, maintaining water quality and preserving the environment that spans many boundaries— political, social, jurisdictional, physical and ecological. Addressing this complex problem has remained a focal issue in the literature (Wolf 1999; Biswas 1992; Uitto and Duda 2002; Song and Whittington 2004; Dinar et al. 2007; Prescoli and Wolf 2010; Earle et al. 2010; Wolf 2010; Subramanian, Brown and Wolf 2012; Islam and Susskind 2013; Salman 2013; Dellapenna et al. 2013). The specific nature of the problem and, hence, the character of the disputes among the riparians will vary by basin context and the needs and capacities of the riparians. While scientific and engineering solutions are necessary to address the physical, chemical and ecological problems, organizational and political contexts are also integral to finding and sustaining adaptive solutions to disputes as they arise.

  • The Blind Men, the Elephant and the Well: A Parable for Complexity and Contingency

    • By Maimuna Majumder, Engineering Systems Division at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, and HealthMap Computational Epidemiology Group at Boston's Children's Hospital of Harvard Medical School, USA
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp xiii-xvi

  • Summary

    In the early 1970s, the leading cause of childhood mortality in Bangladesh was diarrheal disease (Smith, Lingas and Rahman 2000; Anthamatten and Hazen 2012). Due to inadequate sanitation infrastructure, the untreated surface water that the majority of the population used for their daily needs was contaminated with a variety of disease- causing agents including Vibrio cholerae, rotavirus and Escherichia coli, among others (Hoque et al. 1996; Alam et al. 2006; Begum et al. 2007; Hashizume et al. 2008).

    The underdeveloped immune systems of children below five years make them particularly susceptible to death from diarrheal disease. To address this issue, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) initiated a project in 1972 to build shallow tube wells that tapped into local groundwater aquifers (Smith, Lingas and Rahman 2000). Such tube wells are not as vulnerable to contamination as are surface water sources, which made them a seemingly ideal solution for the problem at hand.

    By 1980, one million tube wells had been installed— a number that then grew tenfold in the decade that followed, bringing coverage to nearly the entirety of the Bangladeshi population in the process (Jones et al. 2008; Smith, Lingas and Rahman 2000; Chappell, Abernathy and Calderon 2001). As under- five mortality began to fall as a result of UNICEF's shallow tube well project, the wells themselves became status symbols in the communities they served (Anthamatten and Hazen 2012; Sultana 2007, 2013). In fact, they became so intertwined with Bangladeshi cultural practices that many families even began to include them in their daughters’ dowries. At the time, UNICEF did not know that the same wells that prevented diarrheal disease so effectively in these rural Bangladeshi communities were also the cause of arsenic poisoning.

    Shallow tube wells, which draw water from within a depth of 150 meters from the surface, are prone to arsenic contamination from metal deposits in the surrounding soils (Smith, Lingas and Rahman 2000). Unfortunately, arsenic poisoning— or arsenicosis— has a latency period that can be as long as 20 years (Martinez et al. 2011). By the time symptoms started to appear in the 1980s, tube wells had already become the primary water source for millions of Bangladeshis— resulting in what the WHO has since called “the largest mass poisoning of a population in history” (Smith, Lingas and Rahman 2000).

  • Chapter Fifteen - Strategic Insights for California's Delta Conflict

  • from Part III - CASE STUDIES
    • By Mohammad R. Moazezi, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada, Kaveh Madani, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK, Keith W. Hipel, Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 289-310

  • Summary

    Abstract

    Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is a systematic approach to handling strategic conflicts. GMCR is categorized as a non- quantitative game- theoretic model that provides a systematic framework to study conflicts and analyze behavioral characteristics of decision makers (DMs) in conflicts with respect to their preferences. The Sacramento– San Joaquin Delta— the major water supply source in California and a unique ecosystem— is on the verge of collapse because of an ongoing conflict over how to manage the Delta. In this chapter, GMCR is used to model this continuing conflict to better understand the options, preferences and strategies of the major decision makers participating in the Delta conflict. Coalition analysis is also used to identify the possible subset of decision makers with the motivation and opportunity to form coalitions and to reveal how creating a coalition can influence the outcomes of the conflict- resolution process. We anticipate our study provides strategic insight into the conflict for all parties and California policy makers. Furthermore, our study shows that, since a full- cooperation approach among the players hardly exists, external force to lead all players toward cooperation could be helpful.

    Introduction

    California's Sacramento– San Joaquin Delta is the largest estuary on North America's western coast. It is located in Northern California where it forms the eastern portion of the San Francisco Estuary, at the junction of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. The Delta has always played an important role in the wealth and economy of California, meeting agricultural and recreational needs as well as providing land and major water supplies for its residents (Lund et al. 2007). Its unique and complex ecosystem has made it a desirable home for more than 750 animal and plant species (McClurg 2010). The lives of Californians from the Bay Area and Silicon Valley to the San Joaquin Valley, the Central Coast and Southern California, including metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles and San Diego, directly depend on the Delta's water resources, its water conveyance infrastructures and its complex management (Hanak et al. 2012).

  • Chapter Four - Flexible Design of Water Infrastructure Systems

  • from Part II - TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, MODELS AND ANALYSES TO RESOLVE COMPLEX WATER PROBLEMS
    • By Melanie Wong Turlington, Arcadis, San Francisco, California, USA, Richard de Neufville, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, Margaret Garcia, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, USA
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 51-74

  • Summary

    Abstract

    Future water needs and sources of supply are often highly uncertain. This is especially the case in the many areas under stress from climate change and rapid, variable urban development. Innovations in water treatment technologies, and price volatility in energy and other resources combine to aggravate the uncertainties concerning the risks and opportunities associated with planning investments in water infrastructure systems. The problem is that conventional techniques for the planning and design of water supply systems do not adequately deal with these important uncertainties. This chapter presents “Flexible Design” as an approach to deal with the situation, and demonstrates its effectiveness in a case study, inspired by Singapore, of a long- term design of the water supply system for a major city. The results show that Flexible Design can significantly increase overall performance compared to conventional design methods— a 15 percent increase in expected present monetary value, while decreasing downside risk and increasing upside opportunities. Flexible Design achieves these improvements by carefully analyzing possible futures using Monte Carlo simulation and designing the system with modules that managers can implement as and when needed. Flexible Design is shown to be an effective tool and is increasingly used in infrastructure development.

    Introduction

    The future is uncertain. Technologies, needs, policies, economies, and environments change frequently. Some changes are quantifiable, and we attempt to make best estimates of what will happen, but we will always encounter game- changing events and unanticipated new technologies.

    When decision-makers consider needs for future water infrastructure, they often use a conventional, deterministic approach. They assume that current conditions will not change and that we can safely rely on a forecast of long- term requirements. However, the water supply and demand system is complex. Natural, societal, and political forces interact to drive changes in both supply and demand over time. Our ability to predict future conditions is low when dealing with such complexity, leading to forecasts that are rarely accurate.

    For projects in transboundary watersheds or other multi- stakeholder water systems, reaching consensus among stakeholders on highly uncertain future conditions is a key challenge; there is a tendency to downplay uncertainty to make the problem more tractable and to advocate for a vision of the future convenient to dominant interests (Lempert and Kalra 2011).

  • Chapter Eight - A Call for Capacity Development for Improved Water Diplomacy

  • from Part II - TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, MODELS AND ANALYSES TO RESOLVE COMPLEX WATER PROBLEMS
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 141-154

  • Summary

    Abstract

    Capacity development is a critical component of water diplomacy, navigating the complexities of transboundary water conflicts. Performed at the institutional and personal levels, capacity development can include initiatives to improve the practitioner's technical capabilities in water resources management, understanding of international water law, interpersonal communications and dispute resolution. One example of capacity development that interweaves society, institutional and individual capacities is the effective use of methods of public participation, by which communities that are impacted by transboundary water policy become critical voices in the decision- making processes. In this chapter we discuss the individual, institutional and societal levels of capacity development and their basin- wide implications for improved outcomes in water diplomacy.

    Introduction

    Anything else you're interested in is not going to happen if you can't breathe the air and drink the water. Don't sit this one out. Do something.

    (Carl Sagan)

    Water management is conflict management. There is no such thing as managing water for a single purpose because all water management is multi- objective and based on navigating competing interests. These interests include domestic users, agriculturists and environmentalists— any two of which are regularly at odds— and the chances of finding mutually acceptable solutions drop exponentially as more stakeholders are involved. Add international boundaries and the chances decrease exponentially yet again. (MacQuarrie et al. 2008, 176) Within each international basin, demands from environmental, domestic and economic users increases annually, while the amount of freshwater in the world remains roughly the same, as it has been throughout history. Given the scope of the problems and the resources available to address them, avoiding water conflict is vital. In international waters, the promising trend reveals a record of acute conflict over international water resources overwhelmed by a record of cooperation. Despite the tensions inherent in the international setting, riparians have shown tremendous creativity in approaching regional development, often through preventive diplomacy, and the creation of “baskets of benefits,” which allow for positive- sum, integrative allocations of joint gains (MacQuarrie et al. 2008, 177). It is in preventive diplomacy and cultivating the creativity to develop baskets of benefits where capacity building becomes an invaluable tool for improved water diplomacy.

Water Diplomacy in Action
  • Contingent Approaches to Managing Complex Water Problems
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017
  • Complex water problems cannot be resolved by numbers or narratives. Contingent and negotiated approaches are necessary for actionable outcome. In the face of a constantly changing array of interconnected water issues that cross multiple boundaries, the challenge is how to translate solutions that emerge from science and technology into the context of real-world policy and politics. Water Diplomacy in Action addresses this task by synthesizing two emerging ideas––complexity science and negotiation theory––to understand and manage risks and opportunities for an uncertain water future. Rooted in the ideas of complexity science and mutual gains negotiation, this edited volume shows why traditional systems engineering approaches may not work for complex problems, what emerging tools and techniques are needed and how these are used to resolve complex water problems.

  • Chapter Twelve - Risk Distribution and the Adoption of Flexibility: Desalination Expansion in Qatar

  • from Part III - CASE STUDIES
    • By Abdulla AlMisnad, Public Investment Management, Ministry of Finance, Doha, Qatar, Richard de Neufville, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, Margaret Garcia, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, USA
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 229-252

  • Summary

    Abstract

    Future needs for urban water supply are often highly uncertain, especially in cities with rapid, variable population growth. Technological innovations and volatility in energy prices aggravate the risks of investments in water infrastructure systems. In such uncertain conditions, Flexible Design can significantly increase expected performance compared to conventional designs, as Chapter 6 in this book demonstrates. Flexible Design achieves this result by embedding Real Options in the design and using them to adjust the system performance over time according to need. The problem is: How should we provide the contractual incentives to insure that the designers and suppliers of the system deliver appropriate flexible designs? This chapter shows, through a detailed case study of desalination projects for Qatar, that the form of the contract between the water authority and the suppliers greatly influences the overall design and economic performance. This chapter applies a waterfall analysis to trace how contracts allocate benefits and differentially motivate designers to create or avoid flexible designs. This result means that, contrary to current practice, joint consideration of physical design and contractual arrangements can improve the design of water supply systems. Additionally, understanding the impact of contract choice on the willingness of a public– private partnership (PPP) to implement a flexible design offers insights for water infrastructure projects with other types of multi- stakeholder relationships.

    Introduction

    This chapter argues that, to achieve the expected outcomes, designers and negotiators need to jointly consider both the physical and contractual arrangements of a project. The reasoning is:

  • The future outcomes of any project are uncertain because of inescapable changes in needs, supplies, costs, and technologies.

  • Contractual arrangements inevitably allocate these outcomes differentially between water suppliers and end users— largely, but not only, because their costs and benefits occur unevenly over time.

  • Designers will shape the project in response to the risks associated with the contracts, which may not be best from the overall societal perspective.

  • Therefore, to get the best project designs, we need to consider jointly the physical and contractual arrangements for a project.

  • Chapter Two - Leveraging Diplomacy for Resolving Transboundary Water Problems

  • from Part I - ROOTS AND CAUSES OF COMPLEXITY AND CONTINGENCY IN WATER PROBLEMS
  • Edited by Shafiqul Shafiqul, Kaveh Madani
  • Book:
    Water Diplomacy in Action
    Published by:
    Anthem Press
    Published online:
    10 January 2018
    Print publication:
    02 January 2017, pp 19-34

  • Summary

    Abstract

    Water is a fundamental precondition for human life. Yet, much of it transcends state borders via shared river and lake basins or groundwater aquifers. The resulting political, economic, social and environmental interdependencies give water resources the crucial potential either to foster cooperation or exacerbate conflict. Transboundary waters thus constitute a promising entry point for diplomats aiming for high peace dividends, warranting strong interest from foreign policy makers. Yet there is a lack of agency at the international level. As a result, the international community faces huge challenges when it comes to systematically taking early action to both respond to emerging crises and reinforce cooperation. This chapter, therefore, argues that foreign policy makers can and should do more to realize these dividends by exerting political leadership in fostering intrabasin cooperation and integration, connecting and reinforcing appropriate institutional structures for coordinated and cross-sectoral comprehensive engagement and for strengthening the diplomatic track of transboundary cooperation on water. This chapter proposes a number of specific instruments of engagement. Yet, in the end, strengthening the governance of transboundary waters hinges on strengthening and connecting the institutions, national and international, that can channel political will into coherent action.

    Introduction

    The global water crisis is of such a magnitude that it is growing into an issue of common global concern.1 This perspective puts the focus on water systems shared by two or more countries. Transboundary waters constitute a pivotal but underappreciated issue in global politics. The territories of 148 nations fall within international river basins that include the political boundaries of two or more countries (UN Water 2016). These international river basins cover 46 percent of the Earth's land surface (UN Water 2016), host about 40 percent of the world's population and account for approximately 60 percent of global river flow (Wolf et al. 2003). Shared waters are, therefore, often of critical importance for riparian states, that is, the states that comprise part of a transboundary basin. As a consequence, the use and apportionment of water in these basins is both a source of conflict risks and a chance for institutionalizing cooperative behavior.

Page 184 of 316