U.S. Relations with Southeast Asia in 2018: more Continuity than Change

Summary

INTRODUCTION

A year and a half into the Trump presidency, Southeast Asian countries (like the rest of the world) are wrestling with understanding their region's place in his administration's priorities. If there is a consensus in the region, it is that under Trump the United States is returning to its long-standing approach of benign neglect — or what Joseph Chinyong Liow aptly terms “ambivalent engagement” in his excellent study of American relations with the region.

While the Trump administration has certainly not prioritized Southeast Asia, neither has it intentionally downgraded the region. It simply seems to be returning to its traditional pattern of episodic diplomacy, whereby multi-month periods of no or little high-level interaction is followed by bursts of “parachute diplomacy” by U.S. officials who fly into the region, give reassuring speeches of America's continuing commitment and resolve, and then fly out. On some occasions the U.S. Government becomes proactive by inviting Southeast Asian heads of state and senior officials to the White House and Washington. But such surges of U.S. diplomacy are normally followed by many consecutive months of relative inattention — before the pattern repeats itself. One can thus understand and forgive Southeast Asian scepticism about the continuity and commitment of the United States to the region. This time around though, the residual doubts and questions about America's attention span and staying power is greater, and it is fuelled by three further factors: Trump's own unpredictability and capriciousness; China's rapidly rising role in the region; and the legacy of the Obama administration.

The Trump Factor

Trump has proven himself his administration's own worst enemy. An aggressive early morning tweet or denigrating comments made about a foreign leader, combined with the President's clear disdain for multilateralism, unappreciation of the importance of alliances, barely disguised racial and religious prejudices, and his simplistic mercantilist view of international commerce all have the potential to do real damage to U.S.–Southeast Asian relations. Trump's anti-immigration policies and targeting of Muslim immigrants in particular go down very badly in Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia — and his abrupt withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) sent irreparable shock waves throughout the region.