Chapter 2 - South Asian Futures: Three Scenarios

Summary

Political instability and domestic disorder in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have drawn further continuing international attention to South Asia. In the two biggest states, creeping domestic militancy jeopardizes security in major Pakistani cities while India struggles with Naxalite activity in its north and east. These instabilities, plus the continuing prospect of an India–Pakistan crisis, make South Asia's future very hard to predict. However, instability also presents opportunities – the future is not rigidly path-dependent. With the caveat that all long-range predictions are guesses, here are three plausible but very different scenarios. The real future could see the region go down one, two or even all three of these paths, perhaps at different times, and it will be shaped by processes that we only partially understand.

Scenario #1: The United States of South Asia (USSA)

In 2013, reconciliation between India and Pakistan looked to be a tenuous prospect, at best. A new crisis over alleged beheadings, and the suspension of progress on economic normalization, led to gloomy predictions about the future. Despite the fact that Pakistan and India had returned to the negotiating table, Hawkish voices on both sides of the process called India–Pakistan normalization improbable, if not if not impossible. However, there were small steps that, in retrospect, were forerunners of a promising future.