4 - The Future of Work

Summary

Abstract

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics are leading to fears of massive job loss in many industries. There is little reason to fear the extreme scenarios of destructive AIs and robots taking over. But the concerns over jobs are quite real. The US created over 100 million new jobs between 1950 and 2015. We can already see how many new jobs in old industries and wholly new industries are coming into being, enabling humans to work alongside smart machines. There are at least four possible scenarios driven by how rapidly new jobs are created and how fast today’s jobs disappear. The real issue is the transition and the ability to retrain and reskill today's work force most impacted.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, future jobs, retraining, employment scenarios

Is the future of work, no work?

There is a growing fear that technology will displace workers, leaving vast numbers of unemployed, under-employed, and unemployable workers. The gaps between the top, the middle, and the bottom are widening, and the fear is that the middle and bottom will be left further and further behind as only the most skilled remain in employment.

Fear of technological displacement began when weaving machines were introduced in Scotland, and the Luddites opposed the displacement of the weavers. Fears of job loss have accompanied every major technological transition. And indeed, many jobs have disappeared along the way, often with their whole industries. Local dairies and their milkmen are a thing of the past. Draftsmen gave way to Autocad. Personal servants for the middle class gave way to modern appliances. Typing pools gave way to word processors and personal computers.

Is something different this time?

Yes. In the past most technology replaced human physical functions like motion, lifting, hitting, and so on. The new technologies are cognitive technologies taking on human mental functions like speech, hearing, vision, and so on. Technology appears to be going right for what it means to be human. It is one thing for a bicycle rider to replace a runner or a car to replace a horse, but more challenging when an AI replaces an accountant or an editor. The fear is that as the capabilities of artificial intelligence grow, there will be little left that human beings can do better.