A11 - Reasons for an optimistic future view of trade and Latin America

Summary

There are several good reasons to hold an optimistic view about Latin America (LA) in world trade during the next ten years. These reasons are related to the region's learning process over the last decades, some significant cultural changes and the impact of new international realities. As a result, some LA nations are becoming more assertive, pragmatic and optimistic. This new attitude also accounts for the internationalization of many regional firms, including the growing number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are integrating transnational production networks.

The trend towards improvements will continue despite occasional ups and downs. This is not to underestimate the huge and familiar challenges that remain to be overcome over the next years, including those related to the region's pattern of foreign trade.

It is precisely with those challenges in mind that it may seem convenient, before continuing, to raise a word of caution. Everyone knows that in a world of deep systemic changes, forecasting can be dangerous. Mindful of the views on LA that predominate in many quarters, it has always been safer to predict negative, if not catastrophic, scenarios. But today it appears that some factors enable one to risk a more positive forecast concerning the future contribution of the region to global trade and governance.

To begin with the bad news, let me briefly make reference to the well-known inventory of reasons to be sceptical about the future trade and investment performance of LA.