Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- Participants
- Non-Participant Contributors
- Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies
- Part 2 Dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals)
- Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)
- Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions
- Part 5 Prediction
- AIDS: modelling and predicting
- Staged Markov models based on CD4+ T-lymphocytes for the natural history of HIV infection
- Invited Discussion
- Short term projections by dynamic modelling in large populations: a case study in France and The Netherlands
- Bayesian prediction of AIDS cases and CD200 cases in Scotland
- Some scenario analyses for the HIV epidemic in Italy
- Relating a transmission model of AIDS spread to data: some international comparisons
- Estimation of the rate of HIV diagnosis in HIV-infected individuals
- Effects of AIDS public education on HIV infections among gay men
- Changes in sexual behaviour and HIV control
- The time to AIDS in a cohort of homosexual men
Some scenario analyses for the HIV epidemic in Italy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 August 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- Participants
- Non-Participant Contributors
- Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies
- Part 2 Dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals)
- Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)
- Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions
- Part 5 Prediction
- AIDS: modelling and predicting
- Staged Markov models based on CD4+ T-lymphocytes for the natural history of HIV infection
- Invited Discussion
- Short term projections by dynamic modelling in large populations: a case study in France and The Netherlands
- Bayesian prediction of AIDS cases and CD200 cases in Scotland
- Some scenario analyses for the HIV epidemic in Italy
- Relating a transmission model of AIDS spread to data: some international comparisons
- Estimation of the rate of HIV diagnosis in HIV-infected individuals
- Effects of AIDS public education on HIV infections among gay men
- Changes in sexual behaviour and HIV control
- The time to AIDS in a cohort of homosexual men
Summary
Introduction
Forecasting the evolution of the AIDS epidemic in different situations is a primary problem which has to be solved in order to perform cost-benefit analyses and evaluate different policies which can be adopted to control the epidemic.
Several mathematical and statistical models have been proposed for these purposes in recent years. Most of them are deterministic models which try to take into account very complex situations. Others are statistical models which simply try to fit data and extrapolate the observed beaviours (some references can be found in Rossi (1991)). The most suitable approach to modelling AIDS epidemic is via stochastic models, based on an understanding of the transmission dynamics of HIV.
In the following, a stochastic compartmental model, recently proposed (Rossi 1991), is used to perform some scenario analyses and evaluate the impact of different policies.
The model used here concentrates, in particular, on the proportion of stayers, st, throughout, i.e. the proportion of individuals of the population who are not at risk of infection by HIV, either through behaviour or by possible immunity, and on the proportion of infected individuals who can be considered removed from the transmission process due to their ‘prudent’ behaviour.
The flow chart and the equations of the model can be found in Rossi (1991). In the present contribution we concentrate on the influence on the behaviour of the epidemic of the parameters s0 and vij where v12, v23, v32 a nd v21 are four parameters that represent the effects of screening and associated treatment programmes.
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- Models for Infectious Human DiseasesTheir Structure and Relation to Data, pp. 470 - 472Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1996
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