Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 May 2022
Astrologists have predicted the occurrence of solar eclipses with increasing precision through the ages. Predicting celestial motions invokes the dynamics of a relatively simple and rigid system; it is straightforward and akin to identifying regularities in recurrent records. Discovering regularities, however, does not necessarily impart true comprehension. While we can speculate about the mechanisms and forces at work to fill gaps as we edge towards comprehension, such conjectured theories are often misleading. In early 2020, epidemiologists were confronted with a once-in-a-lifetime challenge: forecasting the number of infections of COVID-19 both regionally and globally. With little understanding of the viral transmission at the time, most forecasts failed miserably. Failed forecasts abound, especially for systems that are complex and adaptive; the bet between ecologist Paul Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon on the swings of metal price anticipated from socioeconomic impacts of overpopulation (Sabin 2013) is a good example. The forecasting conundrum is both typical and perplexing to ecologists and invasion scientists; hindsight is an exact science, while forecasting is no easier than catching the Cheshire Cat.
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