14 - Postscript – the early 1970s

Summary

This book has sought to analyse India's export performance and export policies during the 1960s. At the time it was written, 1970/71 was also the latest year for which comprehensive information was available. The years since then have witnessed certain new developments such as the recent boom in prices of primary commodities, the sharp rise in prices of crude oil, a marked acceleration in the rate of inflation and a serious economic crisis in India. Clearly, all these occurrences have an important bearing on India's export performance in the past few years, and need to be investigated in detail. But it is almost impossible for any book to incorporate the latest developments in a constantly changing economic scene. Nevertheless, in the following pages, I have attempted to bring the analysis of export trends up to date and to discuss the broader implications of these recent developments for India's export sector. It should, however, be stressed that the objective is only a limited one. A brief account, such as the one below, cannot provide a complete analysis of export performance in the 1970s.

As a first step, it would be useful to examine the overall trend in exports since 1970. In doing so, we shall outline the changes in commodity composition as well as the changes in market distribution of exports. This is followed by a section which discusses the performance of each of the principal export industries and seeks to analyse the factors underlying the growth in export earnings.