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8 - Landslides and climatic change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 January 2011

By
Lisa Borgatti  and
Mauro Soldati
Edited by
Irasema Alcántara-Ayala  and
Andrew S. Goudie
Irasema Alcántara-Ayala
Affiliation:
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City
Andrew S. Goudie
Affiliation:
St Cross College, Oxford
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Summary

Introduction

Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change on Earth may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic perturbation of the atmosphere composition or of land use. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) states that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Moreover, there is a high level of confidence that this warming is a result of human activities releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and agricultural activities. A range of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios are also presented, based on estimates of economic growth, technological development and international cooperation. In all scenarios temperatures continue to rise worldwide, with global mean temperatures averaging plus 2 to 4 °C by the end of the century, accompanied by changes in the amounts and patterns of precipitation. The predicted rate of warming seems to be faster than ever recorded and in particular over the last 2,000 years, and also since the Earth was exiting the Little Ice Age. There will also be an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events at any time of the year, regardless of the season.

If the evidence of climate change is unequivocal, is climate change triggering more landslides, or will it in the future?

Type
Chapter
Information
Geomorphological Hazards and Disaster Prevention , pp. 87 - 96
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2010

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