Peaceful Rise

Summary

Term apparently coined by Zheng Bijian, the chairman of the Beijing-based think-tank the China Reform Forum. It was originally conceived in late 2002, “as an attempt to answer Western proponents of the ‘China threat theory’”. He intended to show that “unlike past rising powers, which upset the international order either to facilitate their rise or as a result of it”, China seeks to integrate itself into the present international order.

According to Zheng, “the only choice for China under the current international situation is to rise peacefully, namely, to develop by taking advantage of the peaceful international environment, and at the same time to maintain world peace through its development.” In an article in Foreign Affairs, he described the rise taking place in three phases. “In the first stage — 2000 to 2010 — total GDP is to be doubled. In the second stage, ending in 2020, total GDP is to be doubled again, at which point China's per capita GDP is expected to reach $3,000. In the third, from 2020 to 2050, China will continue to advance until it becomes a prosperous, democratic, and civilized socialist country. By that time, China will have shaken off underdevelopment and will be on a par with the middle rung of advanced nations. It can then claim to have succeeded in achieving a ‘peaceful rise’.”

Beginning in late 2003, senior Chinese leaders and prominent analysts began promoting the notion of “peaceful rise” [heping jueqi] as “the new pathway” [xin daolu] and the basis for a new Chinese grand strategy. However, the term quickly provoked debate within China. According to Evan Medeiros, opposition came from three groups. First, some Chinese scholars and analysts questioned the accuracy of the new expression. “Many opposed the use of the term ‘rise’ [jueqi] arguing that China is not rising and will not rise given the myriad of economic and social problems complicating its transition from a planned to a market economy.” These critics argue that any talk about China rising is premature and “a far too optimistic a characterization of China's current socio-economic evolution”.