Appendices to chapter 5: J Foreign trade and aid

Summary

The real external balance of the Soviet economy (table J.1) is built up from figures for the dollar balance of aid and trade, consisting of Soviet merchandise exports to the United States (table J.4), US merchandise exports to the Soviet Union (table J.3) and an allowance for non-US trade and aid (table J.2). In the process it is taken for granted (a) that Soviet trade before 1941 was economically negligible, however significant it was from a diplomatic point of view, and (b) that trade in invisibles was negligible throughout.

The United States Department of Commerce is the main source for this appendix, the main amendments and additions being as follows. First, the US figures (tables J.3 and J.4) deal with goods entering and leaving US ports. In the second half of 1941 and 1942, so far as is known, just over one quarter was lost to sinkings on the North Atlantic convoys; the value of goods leaving Soviet ports must therefore have been greater than suggested by US receipts, and the value arriving was less than that of cargoes on shipment leaving the United States; a correction factor is applied correspondingly.

Second, an allowance is made for non-US (mainly British) trade and aid, following roughly the trend of nominal UK transfers. The trend of UK transfers was quite different from that of transfers from the United States, almost half being concentrated in 1942 whereas the bulk of US transfers arrived between mid-1943 and the end of 1944.