During the 20th century, American agriculture underwent dramatic changes. At the beginning, farms were more diverse, dependent on animal traction, on-farm inputs and income and, after initial land grants, nearly independent of government policy. However, external issues, such as government policies, mechanization, fossil fuel costs, increased consolidation and vertical integration of markets and increased societal awareness of the environment and concern with farming practices, have substantially altered the structure of agriculture. These external issues are significant drivers of agriculture and we grouped them into social/political, economic, environmental and technological drivers. Previous papers have examined specific effects of these drivers. Our objective is to examine how these drivers interact and influence today's agricultural systems. We developed four categories: (1) Commodity Crop Production, (2) Supply Chain Livestock Production, (3) Organic Production and (4) Extensive Livestock Production, to describe major current agricultural systems. These categories were developed as major and contrasting systems but do not represent all of American agriculture. Although it is not possible to predict the future, interactions among the various drivers will affect these systems differently. By examining multiple scenarios, we conclude the highly specialized systems (Nos. 1 and 2) are highly vulnerable to future changes, and that developing adaptive capacity is critical for dealing with new uncertainty. Sustainable agricultural systems will need balance among various domains to be able to adapt and survive. We suggest that the concept of dynamic-integrated agricultural systems may be the best way to meet this goal because of its ability to consider multiple goals and flexible producer decision-making.

Technological advances have contributed to impressive yield gains and have greatly altered US agriculture. Selective breeding and directed molecular techniques address biological shortcomings of plants and animals and overcome environmental limitations. Improvements in mechanization, particularly of power sources and harvest equipment, reduce labor requirements and increase productivity and worker safety. Conservation systems, often designed to overcome problems introduced from other technologies, reduce negative impacts on soil and water and improve the environmental sustainability of production systems. Advances in information systems, largely developed in other disciplines and adapted to agriculture, are only beginning to impact US production practices. This paper is the fourth in the series of manuscripts exploring drivers of US agricultural systems. While development of technology is still largely driven by a need to address a problem, adoption is closely linked with other drivers of agricultural systems, most notably social, political and economic. Here, we explore the processes of innovation and adoption of technologies and how they have shaped agriculture. Technologies have increased yield and net output, and have also resulted in decreased control by producers, increased intensification, specialization and complexity of production, greater dependence on non-renewable resources, increased production inputs and hence decreased return, and an enhanced reliance on future technology. Future technologies will need to address emerging issues in land use, decline in work force and societal support of farming, global competition, changing social values in both taste and convenience of food, and increasing concerns for food safety and the environment. The challenge for farmers and researchers is to address these issues and develop technologies that balance the needs of producers with the expectations of society and create economically and environmentally sustainable production systems.