Diplomacy is a political performing art that informs and determines the decisions of other states and peoples. It shapes their perceptions and calculations, so that they do what we want them to do, because they come to see that doing so is in their own best interests. Sometimes diplomacy rearranges their appraisal of their strategic circumstances–and, when needed, the circumstances themselves. Ultimately, it aims to influence their policies and behavior through measures short of war. Diplomacy succeeds best when it embraces humility, and respects and preserves the dignity of those to whom it is applied. Most of what diplomats do is unseen, and it is relatively inexpensive. Diplomacy’s greatest triumphs tend to be preventing bad things from happening, but gaining credit for something that was avoided is difficult.

The trade war between the USA and China that started around 2018 exposed the vulnerability of the international trade law regime anchored on the WTO. This essay explores the possibility that the escalating conflict between the world’s two most powerful economies may be resolved in emerging global markets defined not by an information revolution but by a knowledge revolution. The conventional wisdom among Western pundits discounts the possibility that China might emerge as victorious in a contest with the West to decide who is best at advancing the frontier of knowledge. America won the last global knowledge economy “land rush” triggered by the commercialization of the Internet. Early evidence suggests the next great global knowledge economy land rush will be fueled by innovations including artificial intelligence, mobile computing, cloud computing, social production and the Internet of Things, with early evidence showing it might well be won by China. If this were to occur, then the international trade law regime might continue to drift away from the WTO framework based on Westphalian notions of public international law and may drift closer to China’s distinctive legal institutions and traditions.