Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been described as having an overdispersed offspring distribution, i.e. high variation in the number of secondary transmissions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) per single primary COVID-19 case. Accordingly, countermeasures focused on high-risk settings and contact tracing could efficiently reduce secondary transmissions. However, as variants of concern with elevated transmissibility continue to emerge, controlling COVID-19 with such focused approaches has become difficult. It is vital to quantify temporal variations in the offspring distribution dispersibility. Here, we investigated offspring distributions for periods when the ancestral variant was still dominant (summer, 2020; wave 2) and when Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was prevailing (spring, 2021; wave 4). The dispersion parameter (k) was estimated by analysing contact tracing data and fitting a negative binomial distribution to empirically observed offspring distributions from Nagano, Japan. The offspring distribution was less dispersed in wave 4 (k = 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24–0.43) than in wave 2 (k = 0.21 (95% CI 0.13–0.36)). A high proportion of household transmission was observed in wave 4, although the proportion of secondary transmissions generating more than five secondary cases did not vary over time. With this decreased variation, the effectiveness of risk group-focused interventions may be diminished.

We aimed to verify the effectiveness of real-time reverse transcription (rRT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detecting cases of modified measles (M-Me) and for predicting super-spreader candidates through the experience of a measles outbreak dominated by M-Me in Yamagata, Japan, during March–April 2017. We applied rRT-PCR to specimens from 35 cases of M-Me, nine cases of typical measles (T-Me) and nine cases of prodromal stage of T-Me (P-Me). From rRT-PCR among the M-Me cases, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) showed the highest positive rate (80.0%), followed by throat swab (48.6%), urine (33.3%) and serum (3.1%). The negative result of PBMC in M-Me cases was recovered by the result of a throat swab. In specimens of PBMC, throat swab and urine, M-Me group showed the significantly higher cycle of threshold (i.e., lower viral load) in the rRT-PCR than T-Me and P-Me groups, respectively. Furthermore, three super-spreaders in T-Me or P-Me showed an extremely low cycle of threshold in their throat swab specimens. rRT-PCR using PBMC and throat swab might be helpful for clinical management and measles control by certain detection of M-Me cases and by predicting super-spreading events resulting from measles cases with the high viral load.