Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested multiyear rollover
hedging as a way to increase producer returns. This study determines whether
rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers. For rollover
hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a
mean-reverting process. To test for the existence of mean reversion in
agricultural commodity prices, this study uses a longer set of price data
and a wider range of test procedures than past research. With the use of
both the return predictability test from long-horizon regression and the
variance ratio test, we find that mean reversion does not exist in futures
prices for corn, wheat, soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal. The findings
are consistent with the weak form of market efficiency. Simulated trading
results for 3-year rollover hedges provide additional evidence that the
expected returns to the rollover hedging strategies are not statistically
different from the expected returns to routine annual hedges and cash sale
at harvest.