To date, there is limited evidence for health care providers regarding the determinants of early assessment of poor outcomes of adult in-patients due to earthquakes. This study aimed to explore factors related to early assessment of adult earthquake trauma patients (AETPs).

The data on 29,933 AETPs in the West China Earthquake Patients Database (WCEPD) were analyzed retrospectively. Then, 37 simple variables that could be obtained rapidly upon arrival at the hospital were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses were performed. A nomogram was then constructed.

Nine independent mortality-related factors that contributed to AETP in-patient mortality were identified. The variables included age (OR:1.035; 95%CI, 1.027-1.044), respiratory rate ([RR]; OR:1.091; 95%CI, 1.050-1.133), pulse rate ([PR]; OR:1.028; 95%CI, 1.020-1.036), diastolic blood pressure ([DBP]; OR:0.96; 95%CI, 0.950-0.970), Glasgow Coma Scale ([GCS]; OR:0.666; 95%CI, 0.643-0.691), crush injury (OR:3.707; 95%CI, 2.166-6.115), coronary heart disease ([CHD]; OR:4.025; 95%CI, 1.869-7.859), malignant tumor (OR:4.915; 95%CI, 2.850-8.098), and chronic kidney disease ([CKD]; OR:5.735; 95%CI, 3.209-10.019).

The nine mortality-related factors for ATEPs, including age, RR, PR, DBP, GCS, crush injury, CHD, malignant tumor, and CKD, could be quickly obtained on hospital arrival and should be the focal point of future earthquake response strategies for AETPs. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed to screen for AETPs with a higher risk of in-patient mortality.