We consider a collection of Markov chains that model the evolution of multitype biological populations. The state space of the chains is the positive orthant, and the boundary of the orthant is the absorbing state for the Markov chain and represents the extinction states of different population types. We are interested in the long-term behavior of the Markov chain away from extinction, under a small noise scaling. Under this scaling, the trajectory of the Markov process over any compact interval converges in distribution to the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) evolving in the positive orthant. We study the asymptotic behavior of the quasi-stationary distributions (QSD) in this scaling regime. Our main result shows that, under conditions, the limit points of the QSD are supported on the union of interior attractors of the flow determined by the ODE. We also give lower bounds on expected extinction times which scale exponentially with the system size. Results of this type when the deterministic dynamical system obtained under the scaling limit is given by a discrete-time evolution equation and the dynamics are essentially in a compact space (namely, the one-step map is a bounded function) have been studied by Faure and Schreiber (2014). Our results extend these to a setting of an unbounded state space and continuous-time dynamics. The proofs rely on uniform large deviation results for small noise stochastic dynamical systems and methods from the theory of continuous-time dynamical systems.

In general, QSD for Markov chains with absorbing states and unbounded state spaces may not exist. We study one basic family of binomial-Poisson models in the positive orthant where one can use Lyapunov function methods to establish existence of QSD and also to argue the tightness of the QSD of the scaled sequence of Markov chains. The results from the first part are then used to characterize the support of limit points of this sequence of QSD.

The population dynamics for the replicator equation has been well studied in continuous time, but there is less work that explicitly considers the evolution in discrete time. The discrete-time dynamics can often be justified indirectly by establishing the relevant evolutionary dynamics for the corresponding continuous-time system, and then appealing to an appropriate approximation property. In this paper we study the discrete-time system directly, and establish basic stability results for the evolution of a population defined by a positive definite system matrix, where the population is disrupted by random perturbations to the genotype distribution either through migration or mutation, in each successive generation.

The paper studies multivariate non linear economic dynamical systems with an expectations feedback subjected to exogenous perturbations. In these systems, agents form expectations on future variables based on subjective transition probabilities given by a Markov kernel. The notion of a perfect Markov kernel that generates rational expectations along all orbits of the system is proposed. Conditions are provided under which perfect Markov kernels exist. Applications are given to models of the Cobweb type, to multivariate affine-linear systems, and to the stochastic OLG model of economic growth. For the latter two models, it is shown when a globally attracting random fixed point with rational expectations exists.

Let uε(t, x) be the position at time t of a point x on a string, where the time variable t varies in an interval I: = [0, T], T is a fixed positive time, and the space variable x varies in an interval J. The string is performing forced vibrations and also under the influence of small stochastic perturbations of intensity ε. We consider two kinds of random perturbations, one in the form of initial white noise, and the other is a nonlinear random forcing which involves the formal derivative of a Brownian sheet. When J has finite endpoints, a Dirichlet boundary condition is imposed for the solutions of the resulting non-linear wave equation. Assuming that the initial conditions are of sufficient regularity, we analyze the deviations uε(t, x) from u0(t, x), the unperturbed position function, as the intensity of perturbation ε ↓ 0 in the uniform topology. We also discuss some continuity properties of the realization of the solutions uε(t, x).