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1 results

  • 3 - Did Written Records Give a New Boost to Population Growth?

  • from Part I - World Population Growth
  • Rein Taagepera, University of California, Irvine, Miroslav Nemčok, University of Oslo, Norway
  • Book:
    More People, Fewer States
    Published online:
    21 June 2024
    Print publication:
    04 July 2024, pp 30-44

  • Summary

    The world population growth curve shows a kink from 100 BCE to 200 CE. It occurs in all major populated regions: China, Mesopotamia, Mediterranean, and (least of all) in India. Graphing of population doubling times over time shows utter discontinuity. It looks as if Earth’s carrying capacity for humans reached a limit that no increase in technology could overcome, but by 400 CE a unique breakthrough occurred. An exponent value in “T-function” fits to population data before and after the kink shifts in a way that suggests a crucial change in innovation practices. From isolated innovators, humankind shifted to moderate interaction over space and time, due to literacy. A sudden increase around 400 CE in ability to make use of written records is implausible, yet it remains the only conceivable way to explain the kink in world population growth curve.