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1 results

  • 13 - Data Assimilation for Real-Time Shake-Mapping and Prediction of Ground Shaking in Earthquake Early Warning

  • from Part III - ‘Solid’ Earth Applications: From the Surface to the Core
  • Edited by Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany, Fabio Castelli, Università degli Studi, Florence, Dylan Jones, University of Toronto, Sabrina Sanchez, Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany
  • Book:
    Applications of Data Assimilation and Inverse Problems in the Earth Sciences
    Published online:
    20 June 2023
    Print publication:
    06 July 2023, pp 209-219

  • Summary

    Abstract: Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to provide advance warning of impending strong ground shaking, in which earthquake ground shaking is predicted in real-time or near real-time. Many EEW systems are based on a strategy which first quickly determines the earthquake hypocentre and magnitude, and then predicts the strength of ground shaking at various locations using the hypocentre distance and magnitude. Recently, however, a new strategy was proposed in which the current seismic wavefield is rapidly estimated by using data assimilation, and then the future wavefield is predicted on the basis of the physics of wave propagation. This technique for real-time prediction of ground shaking in EEW does not necessarily require the earthquake hypocentre and magnitude. In this paper, I review real-time shake-mapping and data assimilation for precise estimation of ongoing ground shaking, and prediction of future shaking in EEW.