The measles is a highly contagious disease that can be prevented by vaccination. During and after crises, vaccination against measles decreases in low-income countries, leading to outbreaks. It is possible for developed countries to be at risk from these outbreaks through travel. Low-income countries’ health systems are not resilient to crises. Lack of capacity among these countries causes a decrease in vaccinations. As a result, we provide some recommendations for increasing the resilience of the health system in low-income countries in this letter.

To study the antibody response to tetanus toxoid and measles by age following vaccination in children aged 4 months to 6 years in Entebbe, Uganda. Serum samples were obtained from 113 children aged 4–15 months, at the Mother-Child Health Clinic (MCHC), Entebbe Hospital and from 203 of the 206 children aged between 12 and 75 months recruited through the Outpatients Department (OPD). Antibodies to measles were quantified by plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) and with Siemens IgG EIA. VaccZyme IgG EIA was used to quantify anti-tetanus antibodies. Sera from 96 of 113 (85.0%) children attending the MCHC contained Measles PRNT titres below the protective level (120 mIU/ml). Sera from 24 of 203 (11.8%) children attending the OPD contained PRNT titres <120 mIU/ml. There was no detectable decline in anti-measles antibody concentrations between 1 and 6 years. The anti-tetanus antibody titres in all 113 children attending MCHC and in 189 of 203 (93.1%) children attending the OPD were >0.15 IU/ml by EIA, a level considered protective. The overall concentration of anti-tetanus antibody was sixfold higher in children under 12 months compared with the older children, with geometric mean concentrations of 3.15 IU/ml and 0.49 IU/ml, respectively. For each doubling in age between 4 and 64 months, the anti-tetanus antibody concentration declined by 50%. As time since the administration of the third DTP vaccination doubled, anti-tetanus antibody concentration declined by 39%. The low measles antibody prevalence in the children presenting at the MCHC is consistent with the current measles epidemiology in Uganda, where a significant number of measles cases occur in children under 1 year of age and earlier vaccination may be indicated. The consistent fall in anti-tetanus antibody titre over time following vaccination supports the need for further vaccine boosters at age 4–5 years as recommended by the WHO.

Measles elimination goals have been adopted in a range of countries, sub-regions, and regions since the WHO declared an elimination goal by 2015 or 2020. All countries attempt to achieve and maintain high coverage through routine immunization programmes. This routine strategy, however, does not ensure the elimination goal of measles. Many developed countries, such as the United States, that have succeeded in interrupting measles transmission earlier, are now experiencing outbreaks with an increasing number of cases. Using a stochastic, age-structured model of measles vaccination dynamics, we explore and characterize the transient dynamics of measles susceptibility in the years following the implementation of routine vaccination at the herd immunity threshold. We demonstrate how a population could face risks of potentially large outbreaks even within few years of vaccination. We characterize different risk profiles depending on the incidence pattern in the years prior to vaccination. These results suggest that the classic critical vaccination threshold is necessary to achieve herd immunity, but not sufficient to prevent long periods of transient, super-critical dynamics. Our results suggest the need of future work for more careful monitoring of the impacts of current immunization programmes, and developing models that take into account more complicated vaccination strategies, demographic factors, and population movements.