The extent of the reduction of maize (Zea mays L.) kernel moisture content through drying is closely related to field temperature (or accumulated temperature; AT) following maturation. In 2017 and 2018, we selected eight maize hybrids that are widely planted in Northeastern China to construct kernel drying prediction models for each hybrid based on kernel drying dynamics. In the traditional harvest scenario using the optimal sowing date (OSD), maize kernels underwent drying from 4th September to 5th October, with variation coefficients of 1.0–1.9. However, with a latest sowing date (LSD), drying occurred from 14th September to 31st October, with variation coefficients of 1.3–3.0. In the changed harvest scenario, the drying time of maize sown on the OSD condition was from 12th September to 9th November with variation coefficients of 1.3–3.0, while maize sown on the LSD had drying dates of 26th September to 28th October with variation coefficients of 1.5–3.6. In the future harvest scenario, the Fengken 139 (FK139) and Jingnongke 728 (JNK728) hybrids finished drying on 20th October and 8th November, respectively, when sown on the OSD and had variation coefficients of 2.7–2.8. Therefore, the maize kernel drying time was gradually delayed and was associated with an increased demand for AT ⩾ 0°C late in the growing season. Furthermore, we observed variation among different growing seasons likely due to differences in weather patterns, and that sowing dates impact variations in drying times to a greater extent than harvest scenarios.