In this paper the dynamics of global egg production between 1990 and 2007 and patterns of trade in 2006 are analysed. This time period was chosen, as the political landscape has changed considerably since the early 1990s. The dynamics of the global poultry industry over the past 17 years has been remarkable. No other branch of animal production has shown comparable growth rates. Global egg production increased from 35.2 million tons to 62.6 million tons or by 78%. The report shows that the growth has not been homogeneous but that regional shifts occurred which have changed the spatial pattern of egg production and of egg trade considerably. Whereas Asia has become the most dynamic growth centre and is dominating global egg production, Europe and North America have lost importance. More than 75% of the absolute growth of global egg production between 1990 and 2007 were contributed by China and India. The paper also presents a detailed analysis of global and regional trade patterns. In addition to a global overview, regions with the highest egg surplus and egg deficit are identified and characterised. In 2006, Western Europe was the region with the highest egg deficit. It was the most attractive market for shell eggs, with Germany in a leading position. The second major market for shell eggs was Western Asia. In this region, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait and Oman were the main egg importing countries. Other important egg deficit regions were Northern Europe, in particular the United Kingdom, Middle Africa with Angola as the leading importer, and Central Asia with Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. The highest egg surplus showed Southern Europe with Spain as the leading egg exporting country. Southern Asia ranked second with India and Iran as major exporters. Another egg surplus region was Eastern Europe with Poland and Belarus as leading egg exporting countries. In North America, the USA had the highest surplus, in South-East Asia Malaysia and Thailand. It can be expected that the recent spatial pattern of egg trade will not change very much in the near future. Egg trade will be dominated by European countries, most of the trade will, however, be intra-EU trade. The banning of cages in the EU could even make higher imports from adjacent non-EU countries necessary. A second cluster of egg trade will be located in Asia with Southern and South-Eastern Asia as surplus and Western as well as Central Asia as deficit regions. The third cluster will be the NAFTA member countries with the USA as exporting and Canada and Mexico as importing countries.

Between 1970 and 2006, regional patterns of egg production and egg trade changed considerably. Until 1980, European countries dominated global egg production. In the following decade, less developed countries surpassed the more developed countries in their production volume. This shift was caused by the rapid increase of egg production in Asia. In 2006, Asian countries contributed more than 60% to the global production volume. In particular, the dramatic growth in China has been responsible for the spatial shift of production centres. In several other countries, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, egg production increased also considerably. The expansion of egg production had impacts on the patterns of egg exports and imports. European countries still dominate the trade in shell eggs, but Asian countries could gain market shares, in particular since the 1990s when several newcomers entered the global egg market. Malaysia and India became important egg exporting countries and changed the traditional market patterns in the Near East and in Southeast Asia. In 2005, 25% of all shell eggs that were traded worldwide had an Asian country as their destination. Besides importing countries with a long tradition, such as Singapore, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, new importing countries entered the market, such as Japan. Asia will also play an outstanding role in the projected additional egg demand of 12 million t until 2015 and will also strengthen its position as the leading continent in egg production. About 75% of the expected additional demand will occur in Asia, more than 50% in China alone. In 2015, Asia will contribute over 62% to global egg production in 2015. These future dynamics will open new markets in several Asian countries for breeding companies as well as developers and producers of equipment for laying hens. In these countries, the feed industry will expand, which again will impact on the trade patterns of raw materials for compound feed. The growth of egg trade and the new patterns of trade flows will increase the risk of the introduction and dissemination of highly infectious poultry diseases. This and the foreseeable increase of feed prices may result in slower growth rates and even massive disturbances of the present and projected pattern of egg production in Asia.

Global poultry meat and egg production as well as trade with poultry products have shown a remarkable dynamic during the last 35 years. Between 1970 and 2005 poultry meat and egg production increased faster than that of beef and veal or pigmeat. The trade volume of poultry meat increased even faster than production. In 2004, 12% of the poultry meat produced reached the world market but only 1.8% of the eggs. The rapid increase in poultry meat production has been very imbalanced.

Whereas North and Central America as well as Europe lost market shares, China and Brazil became new centres of production in Asia and South America. In hen egg production Asia was the only winner in the analysed time period, all other continents lost market shares. The increase in regional concentration is mainly due to the dominating role of China. Developing countries surpassed developed countries in their production volume between 1990 and 2000. At the present time, they contribute about 55% to global poultry meat and 68% to egg production.

The trade volume of poultry products increased parallel to the rapid growth of global poultry meat and egg production. The regional concentration of poultry meat as well as egg exports and imports is very high. In contrast to production, the contribution of developing countries to the export volume of poultry products is still much lower than that of developed countries. Even though developing countries were able to gain higher market shares during the past 35 years, the regional shift from developed to developing countries has been less dramatic than that in poultry meat and hen egg production. Especially hen eggs are still mainly traded between European as well as Asian countries.

Outbreaks of Avian Influenza will have impacts on production and consumption, resulting in serious financial problems of major producers and new spatial patterns of production and trade flows. The full implementation of directive 1999/74/EU for laying hens will also have impacts on egg production and egg trade, as the EU will probably no longer be an egg surplus region but be forced to import.

Egg production in the EU (15) increased by 12.2% over the last decade. In 2003 it reached a volume of 96.4 billion pieces. The leading countries in shell egg production are Spain with a share of 20.1%, France and Italy with a share of 17% respectively 14%. The self-sufficiency rate for eggs shows a great variety in the EU. In 2003, The Netherlands had the highest surplus with a rate of 175%, whereas Germany showed the highest deficit with a self-sufficiency rate of only 71%. Shell eggs are traded mostly within the common market of the EU. The Netherlands is the leading exporting country; Germany is the leading importing country.

Organic egg production has also increased continuously over the last decade, without, however, reaching higher market shares. The contribution of organic egg production differs considerably among EU member states. Denmark has the highest share, followed by Austria and the United Kingdom; on the other hand, in southern European countries, organic egg production only plays a minor role. In spite of the increasing production volume, trade with organic eggs is still relatively unimportant in the EU.

The new EU directive for laying hen husbandry and the new German directive will have far reaching impacts on egg production and egg trade in the EU. Due to the banning of conventional cages from 2007 on in Germany the amount of alternative egg production will increase dramatically in this country, but it is a still open question if the consumers will buy these more expensive eggs. The self-sufficiency rate for eggs will decrease from 71% to about 35% and force Germany to import about 10 billion shell eggs per year or about two thirds of all eggs that are being traded on the world market.